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Posted on 7/7/24 at 8:41 am to Gator Fever
quote:
In the Swamp I don't see any chance of a score like that either. Miami has improved on paper though and that coach usually starts screwing things up mid-seaon not early in the season. They scored in the 40s on A&M early last season and in early 2021 his Oregon team went to Ohio State and won that game.
In a lot of ways, Mario's seat is just as hot as Napier's. I still laugh at that GaTech game. Too arrogant to take a knee for the win. I'm actually surprised that Mario is such a bad game-day manager. But not having his team ready to go so many times is inexcusable. He needs this game as badly as Billy.
Posted on 7/7/24 at 9:16 am to Alistair
If you look at the college football rankings historically, the final top 12 contained the following # of 3 loss teams:
2023 - 0
2022 - 2
2021 - 1
2020 - 2
2019 - 2
2018 - 3
2017 - 1
2016 - 5
It probably won’t be the top 12 with 5 conference winners getting in, so let’s assume top 11.
With their schedule, UF would likely be the top rated 3 loss team so they would have been in 5 of 8 years. Add in the added degree of difficulty in the SEC/Big 10 and they would have a better than 50/50 chance of getting in.
2023 - 0
2022 - 2
2021 - 1
2020 - 2
2019 - 2
2018 - 3
2017 - 1
2016 - 5
It probably won’t be the top 12 with 5 conference winners getting in, so let’s assume top 11.
With their schedule, UF would likely be the top rated 3 loss team so they would have been in 5 of 8 years. Add in the added degree of difficulty in the SEC/Big 10 and they would have a better than 50/50 chance of getting in.
Posted on 7/7/24 at 9:18 am to BhamTigah
You also have to consider if they lost three most or all would be on the tail end of the schedule, which hurts the odds quite a bit.
Posted on 7/7/24 at 9:21 am to bamameister
I don't think he does. There will be a fire under Billy if he loses while Cristobal is fine if he is in ACC contention. I think Cristobal could survive a loss at UF and an 8-4 season even with it being the ACC. Imo with our schedule and the noise it would set off its hard to picture Napier recovering from a home loss to Miami.
This post was edited on 7/7/24 at 9:26 am
Posted on 7/7/24 at 9:25 am to BhamTigah
And that doesn't even account for the SEC and Big 10's likely outcome of less teams reaching that 10-2 mark with the new harder schedules.
Posted on 7/7/24 at 9:28 am to Gator Fever
quote:
I don't think he does. There will be a fire under Billy if he loses while Cristobal is fine if he is in ACC contention. I think Critobal could survive a loss at UF and an 8-4 season even with it being the ACC. Imo with our schedule and the noise it would set off its hard to picture Napier recovering from a home loss to Miami.
I think if it's a close game and Florida bounces back quickly, he could survive the loss. That said, a home loss to Miami probably means this team won't bounce back quickly.
Another slow start like last year's Utah game and the noise in the system will absolutely deafening, though.
This post was edited on 7/7/24 at 9:29 am
Posted on 7/7/24 at 10:07 am to Alistair
Nope. Absolutely not. No 3 loss team will make it.
Florida with 2 losses and depending on what other teams do, it's a possibility.
Florida with 2 losses and depending on what other teams do, it's a possibility.
Posted on 7/7/24 at 10:35 am to Alistair
My God that schedule is brutal…actually brutal would be an improvement.
I could see UF being seriously in the discussion with only 3 close losses to the top 10 teams there, but if the SEC stays top heavy in the rankings then an abundance of SEC teams in the playoff will keep UF out.
That said, I don’t see UF only having three close losses. That schedule is …damn.
I could see UF being seriously in the discussion with only 3 close losses to the top 10 teams there, but if the SEC stays top heavy in the rankings then an abundance of SEC teams in the playoff will keep UF out.
That said, I don’t see UF only having three close losses. That schedule is …damn.
Posted on 7/7/24 at 10:57 am to bamameister
quote:not even close
In a lot of ways, Mario's seat is just as hot as Napier's
Mario is a U alum and former player
Plus he’s a 305 Cubano
They forced out the former mayors son to hire him
He’s good for another 3 years even if it continues being a shite show
Plus he’s recruiting really well in the trenches
He does suck as a game day coach but he’ll recruit well enough to win enough games to hang around a while
Posted on 7/7/24 at 12:57 pm to theballguy
quote:
Nope. Absolutely not. No 3 loss team will make it.
Two years ago there were two teams that would have made a twelve team playoff.
Posted on 7/7/24 at 1:10 pm to BhamTigah
quote:
It probably won’t be the top 12 with 5 conference winners getting in, so let’s assume top 11.
With their schedule, UF would likely be the top rated 3 loss team so they would have been in 5 of 8 years. Add in the added degree of difficulty in the SEC/Big 10 and they would have a better than 50/50 chance of getting in.
I agree but conference realignment makes things a little unclear. Its entirely possible that 2 conference champions will be outside the top 12 some years. Once you move the bar up to top 10 the answer is nearly always no, regardless of schedule. In addition, a lot of the high ranked 3 loss teams were playing in a conference championship game. They either got the 3rd loss to the champion or upset the other team.
To maximize a 3 loss SEC team making the playoff, I think the conference as a whole needs to play more Big 10 teams and weaken its outlook in the eyes of the committee.
Most likely CFP Selections every year
SEC = 3 or 4
B10 = 3 or 4
ACC = 1 or 2
B12 = 1 or 2
Non P4 = 1
Florida gets in with 3 losses, if the Sec wins most of their big OOC matchups at the start of the season.
I think follow up question should be "Does a 10-3 Gator team get penalized for receiving its third loss in the SEC championship?"
In that scenario, its possible Florida could get screwed out of a playoff spot to another SEC team.
Posted on 7/7/24 at 1:14 pm to lsupride87
quote:While true, Florida going 9-3 is as likely as Gal Gadot, Margot Robbie, and Sydney Sweeney having a cage match pillow fight to see who would get to suck my dick first.
Florida would absolutely be in at 9-3 with who is on their schedule
Posted on 7/7/24 at 1:15 pm to Socratics
With the crazy hard schedules now the SEC and Big 10 should have pushed for a 3 team guarantee for those conferences. I guess they are pushing for 4 teams minimum in the 14 team talks. My guess is more than not a 3 loss Big 10 team or SEC team will go over a 2 loss ACC or Big 12 non champion though unless those teams have some real nice wins.
Posted on 7/7/24 at 1:36 pm to Gator Fever
quote:
With the crazy hard schedules now the SEC and Big 10 should have pushed for a 3 team guarantee for those conferences. I guess they are pushing for 4 teams minimum in the 14 team talks. My guess is more than not a 3 loss Big 10 team or SEC team will go over a 2 loss ACC or Big 12 non champion though unless those teams have some real nice wins.
Looking at old week 14/15 rankings(Before the Conference Championships), the SEC and BIG 10 nearly always have 3 teams each in the top 12.
In 2018, 9-3 LSU/Florida was ranked above 10-2 Washington St.
In 2019, 9-3 Auburn was ranked above 10-2 Oregon/Notre Dame/Bama.
in 2023, 9-3 LSU was ranked above 10-2 Louisville.
The SEC doesn't need to worry about not having at least 3 spots reserved in the playoffs.
This post was edited on 7/7/24 at 1:39 pm
Posted on 7/7/24 at 2:02 pm to Socratics
Hopefully because from like 2015 to 2018 I think there was only 2 SEC teams (and just 1 in one of those seasons) that didn't have 3 losses pre SECCG. And the schedules were not the bloodbath they are going to be now.
Posted on 7/7/24 at 2:27 pm to Murph4HOF
quote:
suck dick
This seems to be a recurring theme in your posts across multiple threads. Something you need to tell us?
Posted on 7/7/24 at 2:49 pm to Volunteer Jam
quote:Yes.
This seems to be a recurring theme in your posts across multiple threads. Something you need to tell us?
I throatpied your wife.
Posted on 7/7/24 at 3:14 pm to Murph4HOF
quote:You just can't get dick in mouths off your mind, can you, fairy boy?
throatpied
Posted on 7/7/24 at 3:33 pm to Alistair
Holy shite...that's a hell of a schedule
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