re: Do you know why we are confident in our teams chances in the BCSNCG?

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RBWilliams8

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I think you have completely missed the context of my post. Go back, re read without the butthurt and come back.

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Sure you did... Then immediately go with "but but the rain didn't cause a muffed punt for y'all!!!"

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Is that true or not?

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Take away the catch from UGA and you lose.

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Right.

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Take away the kick 6 and a stop or two and you lose.

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You don't know that.

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Take away some of your best plays from the LSU game and you're skullfricked.

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Right.

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you can't just take away plays that you don't like to pretend it was a different game.

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I didn't. Again, look at context of the comment.

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Apparently so. Being that we had more... You know, They keep score in Football.

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You aren't this dumb in real life are you. That comment was in reference to what happened after the adjustments on defense were made. Do you even context bro?

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Sorry it pisses you off that someone is calmly calling you out in your shite.

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You haven't called me out on anything. you have lobbed up strawmen and attacked comments taken out of context.

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just made excuses

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About what? I just answered specific questions asked by another poster. If you think any of those answers were inaccurate, let's discuss them specifically and avoid the confusion and strawmen.

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You should probably read your posts in This thread...

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I have. I even typed them myself. Can you point to any strawmen I have set up? Are you saying you didn't set any up?

Auburn will smash Ohio State. 2013 FSU has to be one of the most difficult BCSNCG opponent in recent era. Huge props to AU if they earn a victory against FSU. It could easily happen. I'd say 30-40% chance.

I agree with all of that. A team can be just a talented, but if they aren't used to stiff competition then they won't fare will against a team that is tested.

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Yeah they didn't play a Heisman candidate with 2,100 yards or anything. You almost made a good point though.

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He got over 1100 yards of those against teams that went 2-10, 3-9, 3-9, & 4-8.

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Yeah they didn't play a Heisman candidate with 2,100 yards or anything. You almost made a good point though.

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He had a good game and it was FSU closest game... so what is your point... since they beat BC, they are tested?

Avello, the sports operations director who sets the lines at Wynn Las Vegas, watched Auburn beat Missouri, locking up the No. 2 spot in the BCS after Ohio State lost to Michigan State in the Big Ten title game, and tried to gauge the public temperature regarding the SEC champion. Just how much do people believe in Gus Malzahn's Tigers?

He made a four-point Auburn adjustment -- an uncommon swing this late in the season -- and set the Wynn's opening line Monday morning at Florida State minus-9. Immediately, Auburn money began to roll in.

Avello actually might be more generous to Auburn than other Vegas experts who either set lines or analyze them. The guys at Don Best Sports, Chief Operating Office Kenny White and analyst Todd Fuhrman, who also serves as FOX Sports 1’s Vegas insider, believe the actual divide between Florida State and Auburn is far wider than the public seems to realize.

"You would think in a game between the No. 1 and No. 2 teams, [the spread] wouldn't be that big of a gap, but this isn't the No. 1 versus No. 2,” White told me. "This is our No. 1 team versus our No. 13 team."

How is it that the SEC champion -- the "best team in the nation's best conference," as some might commonly label the winner of the SEC title -- falls so far behind other teams with seemingly inferior credentials?

Well, simply, Vegas doesn't sing the same narrative tunes that made-for-TV BCS debates do.

Instead, it's basing its evaluations on three cold realities that zoom by the emotional radar of the general fan.

1. Georgia, Alabama and the matter of luck

"Our calculations are based on performance on the field," White said. "We want to know how efficient a team is moving the football."

"My defense is they lost to Georgia and Alabama," White said.

White marks them as defeats for the power rating calculations because of the extraordinary fortunate involved.

The point, as White or Fuhrman or Avello or anyone in Vegas would note, is not to knock Auburn. It's just their jobs to discover the true talent level of teams so they can predict future performance as accurately as possible, and that process requires cutting the narrative layers that harden on top of each magnificent victory.

"In the end, winning is the name of the game, but beating Georgia took the hand of God, and beating Alabama also took some luck," Fuhrman told me. "It makes for a good story."

2. Another reason Vegas is more bullish on Florida State in the BCS championship is that it’s not being influenced by the orchestra that accompanies SEC teams on fairy-tale runs.

All of which is totally irrelevant when gauging one team against another at a neutral site. There's no powerful conference powder Auburn can take to Pasadena and sprinkle on the field before kickoff, but its league affiliation and destiny narrative are two other factors driving up Auburn’s valuation.

3. More importantly, FSU is just more talented

The Seminoles rank third in yards per pass at 10.3 and ninth in yards per rush at 5.69. Auburn ranks 18th at 8.5 and fourth at 6.46, respectively. Vegas analytic guys count this as an edge for Florida State.

On defense, they count the 'Noles as a massive favorite. FSU ranks first in yards per pass allowed at 4.9 and ninth in yards per rush allowed at 3.14. Auburn's ranking in those categories: 83rd (7.4) and 86th (4.59). Don Best considers the Tigers worse than that against the pass.

"A lot has been made about how Auburn has performed in spurts," Fuhrman said. "But if you look at the defensive metrics, they give up a substantial amount of yards."

"I’m not saying Auburn can't win," White told me. "We have them at a 23 percent chance of winning. So if they play [Florida State] four times, we think they’d win one of them."

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Will this horrendous Auburn defense be able to stop FSUs offense? Will FSU's decent defense be able to stop Auburns offense?

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The former? No.

The latter? If FSU can hold Auburn to a Bama like score...(and most people believe they can) under 30 points - take away the last second miracle score.

Sizeable edge - FSU

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Take away Tre Masons stout games against Florida Atlantic, Western Carolina, Arkansas State and Washington State. What do you get? The same exact argument.

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Uhhh, no you don't.

Williams got 52% of his yards in 4 games against teams that averaged 9 losses.

You want to look at Mason's numbers now? Okay, if you look at those 4 games (Western Carolina being the only team with a losing record of the 4), it totals 332 yards (averaged 11 carries in those 4 games with a 7.4 ypc average). So Mason got 20% of his yards in those 4 games.

You want to try a new argument based on facts?

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NOT the same offensive juggernaut then as it was in late November and December. Auburn plays LSU at end of season in Baton Rouge they win by 10+. Every year someone gets hot at the end of the year and no one wants to play them... this year it is Auburn. Auburn beats Free Shoes.

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Y'all said the same thing last year when LSU tea bagged JFF where did it get you?




Third in the west and once again a bitch of LSU"s spread killer. Thats why auburn will never succeed as much as bama at least for now while AU has a DB as QB.

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"I’m not saying Auburn can't win," White told me. "We have them at a 23 percent chance of winning. So if they play [Florida State] four times, we think they’d win one of them."

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I knew I was being generous by saying 30 percent chance.

I really hope Auburn wins though. 13 years ago, I bet a FSU alum $100 that Oklahoma would win another title before FSU did. I had been an Oklahoma fan since I was a kid (born there) but after LSU played them for the natty in 2004 I threw that fanhood under the bus. But that $100 bet has been hanging out there for 13 years. I'm pretty sure I'll have to pay up very soon. Even if Auburn eeks out a win, as long as Jimbo stays at FSU they'll eventually bring home the crystal.