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Difference b/w "we goin' to the 'ship!" & "fire Les!"
Posted on 9/5/16 at 1:39 pm
Posted on 9/5/16 at 1:39 pm
A successful 48 yard and 47 yard field goal by Wisconsin.
College football kickers make 40-49 yard field goals 60% of the time (source: Why field goals are never a sure thing in college football). The probability of the Wisconsin kicker making both the 48 yarder and the 47 yarder was 36% (.6 x .6 = .36).
What the math doesn't show is what LSU would have gained had the odds prevailed and Wisconsin had missed one of those FG's. LSU would have gotten the ball in good field position with momentum, as opposed to Wisconsin receiving momentum. So not only was Wisconsin lucky to get those 3 points, but also lucky to avoid the momentum swing in LSU's favor.
With all that being said, who's really surprised Wisconsin overcame the odds at Lambeau Field? It just seemed to be Wisconsin's day at that venue. Play that game at a truly neutral site and LSU probably covers the 10 point spread.
But all of the above doesn't matter to the weak emotions of LSU fans who somehow convinced themselves this LSU team was going to dominate like they did in 2011.
College football kickers make 40-49 yard field goals 60% of the time (source: Why field goals are never a sure thing in college football). The probability of the Wisconsin kicker making both the 48 yarder and the 47 yarder was 36% (.6 x .6 = .36).
What the math doesn't show is what LSU would have gained had the odds prevailed and Wisconsin had missed one of those FG's. LSU would have gotten the ball in good field position with momentum, as opposed to Wisconsin receiving momentum. So not only was Wisconsin lucky to get those 3 points, but also lucky to avoid the momentum swing in LSU's favor.
With all that being said, who's really surprised Wisconsin overcame the odds at Lambeau Field? It just seemed to be Wisconsin's day at that venue. Play that game at a truly neutral site and LSU probably covers the 10 point spread.
But all of the above doesn't matter to the weak emotions of LSU fans who somehow convinced themselves this LSU team was going to dominate like they did in 2011.
10
Posted on 9/5/16 at 1:41 pm to Jon Ham
Posted on 9/5/16 at 1:41 pm to Jon Ham
Their kicker was better than an average college kicker. Regardless, momentum cannot be quantified nor would it have mattered. LSU got outplayed across the board
Posted on 9/5/16 at 1:42 pm to Jon Ham
Momentum is a myth that has been shown to not actually exist in sports. Fans imagine momentum happening whenever a series of good things happen to one team.
I see I have 3 downvotes. But do a google search for momentum in sports and you'll see that what I'm saying is true.
I see I have 3 downvotes. But do a google search for momentum in sports and you'll see that what I'm saying is true.
This post was edited on 9/5/16 at 1:50 pm
Posted on 9/5/16 at 1:43 pm to Jon Ham
Posted on 9/5/16 at 1:43 pm to Jon Ham
LSU total yards 257
Not going to win many games doing this.
Not going to win many games doing this.
Posted on 9/5/16 at 1:44 pm to lsufball19
Btw give it a rest Jon Ham, no one thinks you're and LSU fan
Posted on 9/5/16 at 1:45 pm to UFFan
Yeah I think people often confuse rhythm with momentum
Posted on 9/5/16 at 1:45 pm to lsufball19
quote:
Their kicker was better than an average college kicker.
Last year he was 18/27(67%). Pretty safe to assume his rate for 40-49 field goals was less than 67%. He would have to hit 40-49 yard field goals at a 71% rate in order for it to be likely he hits 2 in a row.
Posted on 9/5/16 at 1:48 pm to Jon Ham
quote:
weak emotions of LSU fans
Got that right. Good post, btw.
All fan bases overreact and think whatever just happened means everything in the world. However, I guess the end of last season just pushed this particular fan base over the top with their emotion.
LSU played like garbage, sure. But, in the end, the just lost to what is probably a top 20 team essentially on the road.
Are we really good? Probably not. Are we bad? Probably not. The negative energy from the fan base doesn't help to keep the latter from becoming true. Imagine being an LSU player right now, feeling like everyone has already given up on you.
I know this board likes to talk about how LSU really isn't that talented. But they are still talented enough to realistically beat every team on their schedule. Talent can always come to the top.
I'm not expecting LSU to win out or anything. Pretty much every team in the country has less than a 5% chance of winning out at this point in the season. But I certainly don't think the season is over and that the sky is falling, like almost every other LSU fan thinks.
Posted on 9/5/16 at 1:49 pm to lsufball19
quote:
LSU got outplayed across the board
You have some good athletes but your coaching just isn't very good. It's not hard to break down the faults of your program, now realize the diabolical egomaniac went out and hired Lane Kiffin, had your coach done that instead, you might be thinking about a trip to the playoffs.
Posted on 9/5/16 at 1:50 pm to UFFan
quote:
Momentum is a myth that has been shown to not actually exist in sports.
You don't think confidence and positive emotions is more likely to result in better outcomes than negative emotions? Especially when your opponent undergoes the inverse of what you're feeling?
Posted on 9/5/16 at 1:51 pm to TheSECPatriot
Doesn't matter who LSU hires if it's not a new HC
Posted on 9/5/16 at 1:52 pm to Jon Ham
the frozen tundra got us
Posted on 9/5/16 at 1:59 pm to Jon Ham
quote:
But all of the above doesn't matter to the weak emotions of LSU fans who somehow convinced themselves this LSU team was going to dominate like they did in 2011.
Dude, the whole LSU fanbase was expecting to go to the playoffs. The team was ranked #5, so it is not at all an unreasonable expectation to go to the playoffs in this situation. Normal fans would have this expectation, not "weak" fans.
The odds of a college kicker making both of those kicks are less than 50-50. One could argue that Wisconsin's win relied on a healthy dose of good luck.
Sure, LSU was outplayed in some areas, but, they would have won, but for some unusually great FG kicking.
Posted on 9/5/16 at 2:04 pm to Champagne
quote:
Dude, the whole LSU fanbase was expecting to go to the playoffs. The team was ranked #5, so it is not at all an unreasonable expectation to go to the playoffs in this situation. Normal fans would have this expectation, not "weak" fans.
Not even Bama fans should be expecting to go to the playoffs going into the season. There's a difference between expecting it and setting it as an unlikely but realistically possible goal. Therein lies the problem.
Posted on 9/5/16 at 2:09 pm to BayouBengals03
quote:
The negative energy from the fan base doesn't help to keep the latter from becoming true. Imagine being an LSU player right now, feeling like everyone has already given up on you.
It's really is terrible.
You have your winningest coach of all time with one of your best, once in a generation type players, and the fans are ready to throw the rest of the season away after a close loss on the road to a good team to start the season.
Posted on 9/5/16 at 2:16 pm to Jon Ham
Jon has a point.
How many teams have won a NC in the last decade?
Very few coaches can ever reach that level of excellence.
It's like some fans think Coach Miles has forgotten how to win national championships.
It's no different than riding a bike.
Once you find a coach that can ride a bike, you stick with him.
How many teams have won a NC in the last decade?
Very few coaches can ever reach that level of excellence.
It's like some fans think Coach Miles has forgotten how to win national championships.
It's no different than riding a bike.
Once you find a coach that can ride a bike, you stick with him.
Posted on 9/5/16 at 2:18 pm to Jon Ham
quote:
A successful 48 yard and 47 yard field goal by Wisconsin.
Or like... Brandon Harris still sucks and would have found a way to lose. LSU sucks at the most important position on the field and they will lose 5 games because of it.
Posted on 9/6/16 at 10:06 am to Jon Ham
Bump for LSU fan's who are finally coming out of their hangovers.
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