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diddlydawg7's 2022 SEC Predictions
Posted on 8/10/22 at 10:19 pm
Posted on 8/10/22 at 10:19 pm
Instead of assigning a singular W or L to each matchup like a lot of you dumbasses do, I will be doing the statistically correct process of assigning a win probability to each matchup
Alabama
vs Utah State (98.5%)
@ Texas (82%)
vs ULM (99.5%)
vs Vandy (99.5%)
@ Arkansas (89%)
vs Texas A&M (90%)
@ Tennessee (82%)
vs Mississippi State (93%)
@ LSU (90%)
@ Ole Miss (87%)
vs Austin Peay (99.9%)
vs Auburn (96%)
Conference: (7.3-0.7)
W/L Prediction: (11.1-0.9)
Arkansas
vs Cincy (73%)
vs South Carolina (85%)
vs Missouri St (99.9%)
vs Texas A&M (63%)
vs Alabama (11%)
@ Miss State (66%)
@ BYU (69%)
@ Auburn (62%)
vs Liberty (93%)
vs LSU (74%)
vs Ole Miss (65%)
@ Missouri (84%)
Conference: (5.3-2.7)
W/L Prediction: (8.7-3.3)
Auburn
vs Mercer (99.8%)
vs SJSU (97%)
vs Penn St (42%)
vs Mizzou (78%)
vs LSU (43%)
@ Georgia (5%)
@ Ole Miss (33%)
vs Arkansas (38%)
@ Mississippi St (48%)
vs Texas A&M (30%)
vs WKU (96%)
@ Alabama (5%)
Conference: (2.9-5.1)
W/L Prediction: (6.2-5.8)
Florida
vs Utah (41%)
vs Kentucky (48%)
vs USF (90%)
@ Tennessee (29%)
vs Eastern Washington (99.8%)
vs Mizzou (73%)
vs LSU (40%)
vs Georgia (8%)
@ Texas A&M (31%)
vs South Carolina (67%)
@ Vandy (90%)
@ FSU (56%)
Conference: (3.8-4.2)
W/L Prediction: (6.7-5.3)
Georgia
vs Oregon (ATL) (81%)
vs Samford (99.8%)
@ S Carolina (94%)
vs Kent St (99.8%)
@ Mizzou (96%)
vs Auburn (95%)
vs Vandy (99%)
vs Florida (Jax) (92%)
vs Tennessee (81%)
@ Miss St (89%)
@ Kentucky (85%)
vs Georgia Tech (98%)
Conference: (7.3-0.7)
W/L Prediction: (11.1-0.9)
Kentucky
vs Miami Ohio (96%)
@ Florida (52%)
vs Youngstown St (99.8%)
vs Northern Illinois (92%)
@ Ole Miss (58%)
vs South Carolina (76%)
vs Mississippi St (64%)
@ Tennessee (41%)
@ Missouri (81%)
vs Vandy (96%)
vs Georgia (15%)
vs Louisville (71%)
Conference: (4.8-3.2)
W/L Prediction: (8.4-3.6)
LSU
vs FSU (57%)
vs Southern (99.8%)
vs Miss St (60%)
vs New Mexico (99%)
@ Auburn (57%)
vs Tennessee (32%)
@ Florida (60%)
vs Ole Miss (55%)
vs Alabama (10%)
@ Arkansas (26%)
vs UAB (92%)
@ Texas A&M (41%)
Conference: (3.5-4.5)
W/L Prediction: (6.9-5.1)
Miss St
vs Memphis (82%)
@ Arizona (85%)
@ LSU (40%)
vs Bowling Green (97%)
vs Texas A&M (41%)
vs Arkansas (34%)
@ Kentucky (34%)
@ Alabama (7%)
vs Auburn (52%)
vs Georgia (11%)
vs ETSU (99.8%)
@ Ole Miss (38%)
Conference: (2.6-5.4)
W/L Prediction: (6.2-5.8)
Missouri
vs LA Tech (89%)
@ Kansas St (37%)
vs Abilene (99.5%)
@ Auburn (22%)
vs Georgia (4%)
@ Florida (27%)
vs Vandy (76%)
@ South Carolina (31%)
vs Kentucky (19%)
@ Tennessee (13%)
vs NMSU (97%)
vs Arkansas (16%)
Conference: (1.9-6.1)
W/L Prediction: (5.2-6.8)
Ole Miss
vs Troy (91%)
vs Central Arkansas (99.9%)
@ Georgia Tech (76%)
vs Tulsa (84%)
vs Kentucky (42%)
@ Vanderbilt (88%)
vs Auburn (67%)
@ LSU (45%)
@ Texas A&M (39%)
vs Alabama (13%)
@ Arkansas (35%)
vs Mississippi St (62%)
Conference: (3.9-4.1)
W/L Prediction: (7.4-4.6)
South Carolina
vs Georgia St (76%)
@ Arkansas (15%)
vs Georgia (6%)
vs Charlotte (97%)
vs SCSU (99.5%)
@ Kentucky (25%)
vs Texas A&M (33%)
vs Mizzou (69%)
@ Vandy (78%)
@ Florida (33%)
vs Tennessee (22%)
@ Clemson (6%)
Conference: (2.8-5.2)
W/L Prediction: (5.6-6.4)
Tennessee
vs Ball State (97%)
@ Pittsburgh (67%)
vs Akron (98%)
vs Florida (71%)
@ LSU (68%)
vs Alabama (18%)
vs Tenn-Martin (99.8%)
vs Kentucky (59%)
@ Georgia (19%)
vs Mizzou (87%)
@ South Carolina (78%)
@ Vandy (96%)
Conference: (5.0-3.0)
W/L Prediction: (8.6-3.4)
Texas A&M
vs Sam Houston St (99.8%)
vs App St (86%)
vs Miami (74%)
vs Arkansas (37%)
@ Miss St (59%)
@ Alabama (10%)
@ South Carolina (67%)
vs Ole Miss (61%)
vs Florida (69%)
@ Auburn (70%)
vs UMASS (99%)
vs LSU (59%)
Conference: (4.3-3.7)
W/L Prediction: (7.9-4.1)
Vandy
@ Hawaii (50%)
vs Elon (96%)
vs Wake Forest (27%)
@ N Illinois (42%)
@ Alabama (0.5%)
vs Ole Miss (12%)
@ Georgia (1%)
@ Mizzou (24%)
vs South Carolina (22%)
@ Kentucky (4%)
vs Florida (10%)
vs Tennessee (4%)
Conference: (0.8-7.2)
W/L Prediction: (2.0-10.0)
East
1. Georgia (7.3-0.7)
2. Tennessee (5.0-3.0)
3. Kentucky (4.8-3.2)
4. Florida (3.8-4.2)
5. South Carolina (2.8-5.2)
6. Missouri (1.9-6.1)
7. Vandy (0.8-7.2)
West
1. Alabama (7.3-0.7)
2. Arkansas (5.3-2.7)
3. Texas A&M (4.3-3.7)
4. Ole Miss (3.9-4.1)
5. LSU (3.5-4.5)
6. Auburn (2.9-5.1)
7. Miss St (2.6-5.4)
Win Total Projections
1. Alabama (11.1)
2. Georgia (11.1)
3. Arkansas (8.7)
4. Tennessee (8.6)
5. Kentucky (8.4)
6. Texas A&M (7.9)
7. Ole Miss (7.4)
8. LSU (6.9)
9. Florida (6.7)
10. Miss St (6.2)
11. Auburn (6.2)
12. South Carolina (5.6)
13. Missouri (5.2)
14. Vandy (2.0)
Comparison to Draftkings Win Total O/U
1. Arkansas (+1.2)
2. Tennessee (+1.1)
3. Kentucky (+0.9)
4. Alabama (+0.6)
5. Georgia (+0.6)
6. LSU (-0.1)
7. Ole Miss (-0.1)
8. Missouri (-0.3)
9. Auburn (-0.3)
10. Miss St (-0.3)
11. Florida (-0.3)
12. South Carolina (-0.4)
13. Vandy (-0.5)
14. Texas A&M (-0.6)
Alabama
vs Utah State (98.5%)
@ Texas (82%)
vs ULM (99.5%)
vs Vandy (99.5%)
@ Arkansas (89%)
vs Texas A&M (90%)
@ Tennessee (82%)
vs Mississippi State (93%)
@ LSU (90%)
@ Ole Miss (87%)
vs Austin Peay (99.9%)
vs Auburn (96%)
Conference: (7.3-0.7)
W/L Prediction: (11.1-0.9)
Arkansas
vs Cincy (73%)
vs South Carolina (85%)
vs Missouri St (99.9%)
vs Texas A&M (63%)
vs Alabama (11%)
@ Miss State (66%)
@ BYU (69%)
@ Auburn (62%)
vs Liberty (93%)
vs LSU (74%)
vs Ole Miss (65%)
@ Missouri (84%)
Conference: (5.3-2.7)
W/L Prediction: (8.7-3.3)
Auburn
vs Mercer (99.8%)
vs SJSU (97%)
vs Penn St (42%)
vs Mizzou (78%)
vs LSU (43%)
@ Georgia (5%)
@ Ole Miss (33%)
vs Arkansas (38%)
@ Mississippi St (48%)
vs Texas A&M (30%)
vs WKU (96%)
@ Alabama (5%)
Conference: (2.9-5.1)
W/L Prediction: (6.2-5.8)
Florida
vs Utah (41%)
vs Kentucky (48%)
vs USF (90%)
@ Tennessee (29%)
vs Eastern Washington (99.8%)
vs Mizzou (73%)
vs LSU (40%)
vs Georgia (8%)
@ Texas A&M (31%)
vs South Carolina (67%)
@ Vandy (90%)
@ FSU (56%)
Conference: (3.8-4.2)
W/L Prediction: (6.7-5.3)
Georgia
vs Oregon (ATL) (81%)
vs Samford (99.8%)
@ S Carolina (94%)
vs Kent St (99.8%)
@ Mizzou (96%)
vs Auburn (95%)
vs Vandy (99%)
vs Florida (Jax) (92%)
vs Tennessee (81%)
@ Miss St (89%)
@ Kentucky (85%)
vs Georgia Tech (98%)
Conference: (7.3-0.7)
W/L Prediction: (11.1-0.9)
Kentucky
vs Miami Ohio (96%)
@ Florida (52%)
vs Youngstown St (99.8%)
vs Northern Illinois (92%)
@ Ole Miss (58%)
vs South Carolina (76%)
vs Mississippi St (64%)
@ Tennessee (41%)
@ Missouri (81%)
vs Vandy (96%)
vs Georgia (15%)
vs Louisville (71%)
Conference: (4.8-3.2)
W/L Prediction: (8.4-3.6)
LSU
vs FSU (57%)
vs Southern (99.8%)
vs Miss St (60%)
vs New Mexico (99%)
@ Auburn (57%)
vs Tennessee (32%)
@ Florida (60%)
vs Ole Miss (55%)
vs Alabama (10%)
@ Arkansas (26%)
vs UAB (92%)
@ Texas A&M (41%)
Conference: (3.5-4.5)
W/L Prediction: (6.9-5.1)
Miss St
vs Memphis (82%)
@ Arizona (85%)
@ LSU (40%)
vs Bowling Green (97%)
vs Texas A&M (41%)
vs Arkansas (34%)
@ Kentucky (34%)
@ Alabama (7%)
vs Auburn (52%)
vs Georgia (11%)
vs ETSU (99.8%)
@ Ole Miss (38%)
Conference: (2.6-5.4)
W/L Prediction: (6.2-5.8)
Missouri
vs LA Tech (89%)
@ Kansas St (37%)
vs Abilene (99.5%)
@ Auburn (22%)
vs Georgia (4%)
@ Florida (27%)
vs Vandy (76%)
@ South Carolina (31%)
vs Kentucky (19%)
@ Tennessee (13%)
vs NMSU (97%)
vs Arkansas (16%)
Conference: (1.9-6.1)
W/L Prediction: (5.2-6.8)
Ole Miss
vs Troy (91%)
vs Central Arkansas (99.9%)
@ Georgia Tech (76%)
vs Tulsa (84%)
vs Kentucky (42%)
@ Vanderbilt (88%)
vs Auburn (67%)
@ LSU (45%)
@ Texas A&M (39%)
vs Alabama (13%)
@ Arkansas (35%)
vs Mississippi St (62%)
Conference: (3.9-4.1)
W/L Prediction: (7.4-4.6)
South Carolina
vs Georgia St (76%)
@ Arkansas (15%)
vs Georgia (6%)
vs Charlotte (97%)
vs SCSU (99.5%)
@ Kentucky (25%)
vs Texas A&M (33%)
vs Mizzou (69%)
@ Vandy (78%)
@ Florida (33%)
vs Tennessee (22%)
@ Clemson (6%)
Conference: (2.8-5.2)
W/L Prediction: (5.6-6.4)
Tennessee
vs Ball State (97%)
@ Pittsburgh (67%)
vs Akron (98%)
vs Florida (71%)
@ LSU (68%)
vs Alabama (18%)
vs Tenn-Martin (99.8%)
vs Kentucky (59%)
@ Georgia (19%)
vs Mizzou (87%)
@ South Carolina (78%)
@ Vandy (96%)
Conference: (5.0-3.0)
W/L Prediction: (8.6-3.4)
Texas A&M
vs Sam Houston St (99.8%)
vs App St (86%)
vs Miami (74%)
vs Arkansas (37%)
@ Miss St (59%)
@ Alabama (10%)
@ South Carolina (67%)
vs Ole Miss (61%)
vs Florida (69%)
@ Auburn (70%)
vs UMASS (99%)
vs LSU (59%)
Conference: (4.3-3.7)
W/L Prediction: (7.9-4.1)
Vandy
@ Hawaii (50%)
vs Elon (96%)
vs Wake Forest (27%)
@ N Illinois (42%)
@ Alabama (0.5%)
vs Ole Miss (12%)
@ Georgia (1%)
@ Mizzou (24%)
vs South Carolina (22%)
@ Kentucky (4%)
vs Florida (10%)
vs Tennessee (4%)
Conference: (0.8-7.2)
W/L Prediction: (2.0-10.0)
East
1. Georgia (7.3-0.7)
2. Tennessee (5.0-3.0)
3. Kentucky (4.8-3.2)
4. Florida (3.8-4.2)
5. South Carolina (2.8-5.2)
6. Missouri (1.9-6.1)
7. Vandy (0.8-7.2)
West
1. Alabama (7.3-0.7)
2. Arkansas (5.3-2.7)
3. Texas A&M (4.3-3.7)
4. Ole Miss (3.9-4.1)
5. LSU (3.5-4.5)
6. Auburn (2.9-5.1)
7. Miss St (2.6-5.4)
Win Total Projections
1. Alabama (11.1)
2. Georgia (11.1)
3. Arkansas (8.7)
4. Tennessee (8.6)
5. Kentucky (8.4)
6. Texas A&M (7.9)
7. Ole Miss (7.4)
8. LSU (6.9)
9. Florida (6.7)
10. Miss St (6.2)
11. Auburn (6.2)
12. South Carolina (5.6)
13. Missouri (5.2)
14. Vandy (2.0)
Comparison to Draftkings Win Total O/U
1. Arkansas (+1.2)
2. Tennessee (+1.1)
3. Kentucky (+0.9)
4. Alabama (+0.6)
5. Georgia (+0.6)
6. LSU (-0.1)
7. Ole Miss (-0.1)
8. Missouri (-0.3)
9. Auburn (-0.3)
10. Miss St (-0.3)
11. Florida (-0.3)
12. South Carolina (-0.4)
13. Vandy (-0.5)
14. Texas A&M (-0.6)
13
Posted on 8/10/22 at 10:24 pm to diddlydawg7
quote:
Texas A&M
W/L Prediction: (7.9-4.1)
So close.
This post was edited on 8/10/22 at 10:25 pm
Posted on 8/10/22 at 10:24 pm to diddlydawg7
How did you come up with the statistically correct process?
Posted on 8/10/22 at 10:24 pm to DownSouthJukin
quote:
(No message)
melt
Posted on 8/10/22 at 10:25 pm to diddlydawg7
quote:
diddlydawg7
Bish
Posted on 8/10/22 at 10:27 pm to TrueLefty
quote:
How did you come up with the statistically correct process?
I didn't come up with it. It's basic statistics. A team can be favored to win every game and it's still highly unlikely they go undefeated.
If a team is projected to have a 51% chance to win every game, then you would pick them to win each individual game, but the chance of going undefeated is 0.03%, or 1 in 3,333
This post was edited on 8/10/22 at 10:29 pm
Posted on 8/10/22 at 10:52 pm to diddlydawg7
Auburn folks gonna be happy with 4-8? I will.
Posted on 8/10/22 at 10:59 pm to diddlydawg7
So according to the statistics Arkansas "should" beat everyone but bama? U like those odds.
Posted on 8/10/22 at 11:10 pm to diddlydawg7
You need a girlfriend
Posted on 8/10/22 at 11:12 pm to diddlydawg7
Nice work!
you’ve even include out of conference teams like mizzou and atm.
Well done
you’ve even include out of conference teams like mizzou and atm.
Well done
Posted on 8/10/22 at 11:14 pm to diddlydawg7
Those are basic coin flip statistics but they lose a lot of value when it's just some random dude assigning random probability to the chances of a win.
Posted on 8/10/22 at 11:15 pm to five_fivesix
Posted on 8/10/22 at 11:25 pm to jonnyanony
are you arguing that this is not the correct way to make season projections? Because it’s literally what FPI and SP+ do.
Posted on 8/10/22 at 11:26 pm to diddlydawg7
quote:
1. Alabama (7.3-0.7)
Posted on 8/10/22 at 11:26 pm to jonnyanony
well i’ll be back in athens next week
Posted on 8/10/22 at 11:29 pm to diddlydawg7
Nice job
And obligatory Texas 8&4
And obligatory Texas 8&4
Posted on 8/11/22 at 5:56 am to diddlydawg7
quote:
are you arguing that this is not the correct way
It's a prediction, you can use any method you like but ultimately it's coming down to opinion rather than statistics.
Posted on 8/11/22 at 6:52 am to diddlydawg7
quote:
@ Arkansas (26%)
Not declaring LSU victory, but the spread on this game likely will be less than a Td and more than likely a field goal. 26%
Same for the Tennessee game, will probably be a PK or slight favorite either way, 32 % at home
But somehow @ the Swamp where Florida will probably be favored LSU has a 60% chance.
This post was edited on 8/11/22 at 6:53 am
Posted on 8/11/22 at 8:08 am to diddlydawg7
the precision of your predictions is impressive.
Posted on 8/11/22 at 8:08 am to diddlydawg7
Auburn gonna win 8+
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