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College Football's Biggest TV Draws
Posted on 9/23/21 at 10:44 am
Posted on 9/23/21 at 10:44 am
Since so much of this sport now revolves around TV revenue, I created a metric to figure out which programs/brands are the biggest draws to high viewership numbers and ranked the programs accordingly. Here are the specifics:
Time Period: 2013 season to present. Mainly because the "Sports Media Watch" website only goes back that far with complete data
Games Analyzed: Only regular season games so that a closer to apples-to-apples comparison can be obtained. Most any program can score a high rating if they reach a certain postseason bowl game and all viewing competition is eliminated. Week-to-week ratings when there are multiple games on at the same time is a better indicator of how popular a program really is in the viewership ratings battle.
Also only games garnering 5 million+ viewers. Typically only 1-2 games per week hits this threshold... occasionally 3 games. But to hit this level of viewership means its a big game.
Formula:
Number of Games (15%)- How many times in the last 8.5 seasons has each team played a game that garnered 5 million or more viewers?
Number of Unique Opponents (25%)-- How many different opponents did each program have that hit this 5 million figure? For example: If Auburn hits this viewership number every year in the Iron Bowl is that really important? Are they hitting it when they play other teams aside from ratings giant Alabama?
Average/Median Viewership (15%/25%)-- It's all about the numbers. How many viewers are being brought in. Median weighted slightly higher so that one or two giant games don't over-influence things.
Number of Seasons represented (10%)- Is a program routinely hitting 5 million viewers in a game every season, or did all of their games occur in one special season when they were abnormally strong?
Highest Viewership NOT against the opponent that scored their highest rating (10%)- If Bama/LSU routinely scores monster ratings, how can we rate LSU in games that don't involve Bama? What was LSU's highest viewership total NOT involving Bama?
THE RESULTS:
RATING KINGS:
1. Alabama- 98.21
2. Ohio State- 91.22
3. Notre Dame- 83.32
These three are clearly separated 1, 2 and 3, but they are also as a group way out in front of the pack.
BIG RATING DRAWS:
4. Auburn- 77.60
5. Michigan- 75.56
6. LSU- 72.79
7. Florida St.- 71.41
8. Georgia- 70.03
Noticeable drop-off from the Top 3, but these five are definitely the next 5 strongest draws for ratings.
DECENT RATING DRAWS:
9. Clemsonm- 63.48
10. Penn St.- 61.74
11. Florida- 61.54
12. Texas A&M- 61.46
13. Wisconsin- 59.44
14. Miami- 56.13
15. Oklahoma- 55.68
16. Texas- 54.83
17. Michigan St.- 54.73
18. Tennessee- 52.42
19. Oregon- 51.61
20. Ole Miss- 51.53
Those are the Top 20 and also the only programs to score above a 50.00 score. Noticably missing are #21 USC (48.77) and #28 Nebraska (43.09) which just aren't big draws like they used to be.
Time Period: 2013 season to present. Mainly because the "Sports Media Watch" website only goes back that far with complete data
Games Analyzed: Only regular season games so that a closer to apples-to-apples comparison can be obtained. Most any program can score a high rating if they reach a certain postseason bowl game and all viewing competition is eliminated. Week-to-week ratings when there are multiple games on at the same time is a better indicator of how popular a program really is in the viewership ratings battle.
Also only games garnering 5 million+ viewers. Typically only 1-2 games per week hits this threshold... occasionally 3 games. But to hit this level of viewership means its a big game.
Formula:
Number of Games (15%)- How many times in the last 8.5 seasons has each team played a game that garnered 5 million or more viewers?
Number of Unique Opponents (25%)-- How many different opponents did each program have that hit this 5 million figure? For example: If Auburn hits this viewership number every year in the Iron Bowl is that really important? Are they hitting it when they play other teams aside from ratings giant Alabama?
Average/Median Viewership (15%/25%)-- It's all about the numbers. How many viewers are being brought in. Median weighted slightly higher so that one or two giant games don't over-influence things.
Number of Seasons represented (10%)- Is a program routinely hitting 5 million viewers in a game every season, or did all of their games occur in one special season when they were abnormally strong?
Highest Viewership NOT against the opponent that scored their highest rating (10%)- If Bama/LSU routinely scores monster ratings, how can we rate LSU in games that don't involve Bama? What was LSU's highest viewership total NOT involving Bama?
THE RESULTS:
RATING KINGS:
1. Alabama- 98.21
2. Ohio State- 91.22
3. Notre Dame- 83.32
These three are clearly separated 1, 2 and 3, but they are also as a group way out in front of the pack.
BIG RATING DRAWS:
4. Auburn- 77.60
5. Michigan- 75.56
6. LSU- 72.79
7. Florida St.- 71.41
8. Georgia- 70.03
Noticeable drop-off from the Top 3, but these five are definitely the next 5 strongest draws for ratings.
DECENT RATING DRAWS:
9. Clemsonm- 63.48
10. Penn St.- 61.74
11. Florida- 61.54
12. Texas A&M- 61.46
13. Wisconsin- 59.44
14. Miami- 56.13
15. Oklahoma- 55.68
16. Texas- 54.83
17. Michigan St.- 54.73
18. Tennessee- 52.42
19. Oregon- 51.61
20. Ole Miss- 51.53
Those are the Top 20 and also the only programs to score above a 50.00 score. Noticably missing are #21 USC (48.77) and #28 Nebraska (43.09) which just aren't big draws like they used to be.
This post was edited on 9/23/21 at 10:46 am
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Posted on 9/23/21 at 10:53 am to BHMKyle
Interesting list, obviously I'm biased but I think these numbers are why ND beat A&M out for the 4th playoff spot. I would have guessed that georgia was higher on the list, maybe strength of schedule hurts them in this formula.
Posted on 9/23/21 at 10:56 am to BHMKyle
quote:
12. Texas A&M- 61.46
15. Oklahoma- 55.68
16. Texas- 54.83
Posted on 9/23/21 at 10:57 am to BHMKyle
Would be interesting to see how this correlates to their average AP/Coaches/BCS/PLayoff committee rankings over the same timeframe.
Posted on 9/23/21 at 10:57 am to BHMKyle
Here are how the programs stack up in the individual categories:
Number of Regular Season Games with 5M+ Viewers Since 2013:
1. Alabama- 38
2. Ohio State- 36
3. Michigan- 25
4. Auburn- 21
5. Georgia- 19
5. Notre Dame- 19
7. LSU- 18
8. Florida- 17
9. Florida St.- 15
10. Penn State- 13
11. Texas A&M- 12
12. Oklahoma- 11
12. Michigan St.- 11
14. Clemson- 10
14. Wisconsin- 10
Number of Unique Opponents in Games that Hit 5M Viewers:
1. Ohio State- 14
2. Alabama- 13
2. Notre Dame- 13
4. Auburn- 10
5. Florida St.- 9
5. Michigan- 9
7. Georgia- 8
7. LSU- 8
9. Texas A&M- 7
10. Penn St.- 6
10. Oklaohoma- 6
10. Wisconsin- 6
10. Tennessee- 6
14. Clemson- 5
14. Florida- 5
14. Miami- 5
14. Ole Miss- 5
AVERAGE RATING (of 5M+ Games):
1. Alabama- 8.884 million
2. LSU- 8.455 million
3. Texas- 8.111 million
4. Auburn- 8.106 million
5. Michigan- 7.830 million
6. Ohio St.- 7.806 million
7. Florida St.- 7.544 million
8. Notre Dame- 7.512 million
9. Clemson- 7.605 million
10. Oregon- 7.117 million
11. Penn St.- 7.081 million
12. Texas A&M- 7.072 million
13. Georgia- 6.893 million
14. Miami- 6.553 million
15. Michigan St.- 6.724 million
**Minimum 3 games
Number of Regular Season Games with 5M+ Viewers Since 2013:
1. Alabama- 38
2. Ohio State- 36
3. Michigan- 25
4. Auburn- 21
5. Georgia- 19
5. Notre Dame- 19
7. LSU- 18
8. Florida- 17
9. Florida St.- 15
10. Penn State- 13
11. Texas A&M- 12
12. Oklahoma- 11
12. Michigan St.- 11
14. Clemson- 10
14. Wisconsin- 10
Number of Unique Opponents in Games that Hit 5M Viewers:
1. Ohio State- 14
2. Alabama- 13
2. Notre Dame- 13
4. Auburn- 10
5. Florida St.- 9
5. Michigan- 9
7. Georgia- 8
7. LSU- 8
9. Texas A&M- 7
10. Penn St.- 6
10. Oklaohoma- 6
10. Wisconsin- 6
10. Tennessee- 6
14. Clemson- 5
14. Florida- 5
14. Miami- 5
14. Ole Miss- 5
AVERAGE RATING (of 5M+ Games):
1. Alabama- 8.884 million
2. LSU- 8.455 million
3. Texas- 8.111 million
4. Auburn- 8.106 million
5. Michigan- 7.830 million
6. Ohio St.- 7.806 million
7. Florida St.- 7.544 million
8. Notre Dame- 7.512 million
9. Clemson- 7.605 million
10. Oregon- 7.117 million
11. Penn St.- 7.081 million
12. Texas A&M- 7.072 million
13. Georgia- 6.893 million
14. Miami- 6.553 million
15. Michigan St.- 6.724 million
**Minimum 3 games
This post was edited on 9/23/21 at 11:22 am
Posted on 9/23/21 at 11:00 am to BHMKyle
I’m sorry, but shouldn’t Arkansas be somewhere on this list?
Maybe you accidentally left them off?
Asking for my friends.
Maybe you accidentally left them off?
Asking for my friends.
Posted on 9/23/21 at 11:04 am to Rod Kimble
quote:
obviously I'm biased but I think these numbers are why ND beat A&M out for the 4th playoff spot
The networks love themselves some Notre Dame. Certainly ESPN has an agenda when they are trying to influence voters and the committee.
quote:
I would have guessed that georgia was higher on the list, maybe strength of schedule hurts them in this formula.
Georgia is hurt by not playing in the West like Auburn, LSU, and A&M.
Seven of LSU's 18 games were against Bama... and most of those were in Primetime with a cleared deck in terms of other SEC games going on at the same time.
Eight of Auburn's 20 games were against Bama... also on Thanksgiving Weekend which is always the biggest ratings weekend in the regular season.
Five of A&M's 12 games were against Bama
Meanwhile Georgia has 19 games that made the list, but only 2 were against Bama. Imagine if we played Bama every year?
There is an argument to be made that Georgia is a much larger draw than our score indicates, however, in no category does Georgia dominate either so its all hypothetical to surmise such a notion.
This post was edited on 9/23/21 at 11:21 am
Posted on 9/23/21 at 11:13 am to BHMKyle
quote:
AVERAGE RATING (of 5M+ Games):
1. Alabama- 8.068 million
2. LSU- 8.455 million
3. Texas- 8.111 million
4. Auburn- 8.106 million
This isn’t sorted correctly.
I’m guessing our most watched games during that time are..
1. Notre Dame 2016
2. Notre Dame 2015
3. LSU 2019
4. Georgia 2018 Sugar Bowl
5. Oklahoma 2018 Big 12 Title Game
6. Oklahoma 2018
7. Kansas 2016 jk maybe
Yeah, a bad schedule combined with a team that has mostly sucked is not great for viewership numbers.. I’m surprised we are even #16 on the list.
Posted on 9/23/21 at 11:15 am to AustinAggie
quote:
12. Texas A&M- 61.46
15. Oklahoma- 55.68
16. Texas- 54.83
We'll see just how strong of a ratings Texas and Oklahoma can bring in once they join the SEC.... only then will we really know.
An argument can be made that they don't have high scores because many of their "big" games are against programs like Iowa State, Baylor, etc.
However, why does the Red River Shootout not score higher ratings? Only twice in the last 8 seasons has that game garnered 5 million viewers or more... and just once more than 6 million.
A perfect example for how overrated Texas is in terms of television ratings is their game against Arkansas a couple of weeks ago. It should have scored high.
Undefeated and RANKED Texas (which is rare these days) on the road against an SEC opponent in ESPN Primetime with the only real competition for ratings being Michigan vs. Washington on ABC and Mississippi State vs. NC State on ESPN 2.
Yet that game only managed 3.3 million viewers. That's abysmally low.
Posted on 9/23/21 at 11:19 am to BHMKyle
quote:Wait so if a team plays another top 10 team in the viewership rating then that game is removed?
Highest Viewership NOT against the opponent that scored their highest rating (10%)- If Bama/LSU routinely scores monster ratings, how can we rate LSU in games that don't involve Bama? What was LSU's highest viewership total NOT involving Bama?
So Bama vs LSU vs Auburn doesn’t count for anyone?
Posted on 9/23/21 at 11:19 am to AustinAggie
quote:
I’m sorry, but shouldn’t Arkansas be somewhere on this list?
Maybe you accidentally left them off?
Asking for my friends.
I know you are joking, but they are noticeably absent. In fact, they did not have a single game hit the 5 million mark which is quite unbelievable.
Ole Miss and Mississippi State had 7 games make the list, including even one Egg Bowl (2014).
Posted on 9/23/21 at 11:25 am to BHMKyle
quote:
Yet that game only managed 3.3 million viewers. That's abysmally low.
Agreed. I was shocked by those numbers as well.
A&M vs Colorado had a bigger number.. That is crazy, but I suspect that is because a Top 10 team was on the ropes the whole game.
The main reason that Texas vs Oklahoma hasn’t drawn good ratings is because Texas has sucked for the most part since 2013.
2013 Texas (3-2) vs Oklahoma
2014 Texas (2-3) vs Oklahoma
2015 Texas (1-4) vs Oklahoma
2016 Texas (2-2) vs Oklahoma
2017 Texas (3-2) vs Oklahoma
* 2018 Texas (4-1) vs Oklahoma
* 2019 Texas (4-1) vs Oklahoma
* 2020 Texas (2-1) vs Oklahoma
So Texas had at least 2 losses entering that game in all but the last 3 years. Texas needs to stop sucking and the numbers will get better.
This post was edited on 9/23/21 at 11:27 am
Posted on 9/23/21 at 11:28 am to BHMKyle
quote:
I know you are joking, but they are noticeably absent. In fact, they did not have a single game hit the 5 million mark which is quite unbelievable.
There is your answer to the Texas vs Arkansas game.
Posted on 9/23/21 at 11:29 am to BHMKyle
quote:
I know you are joking, but they are noticeably absent. In fact, they did not have a single game hit the 5 million mark which is quite unbelievable.
Ole Miss and Mississippi State had 7 games make the list, including even one Egg Bowl (2014).
Would be interesting to see the breakdown when you separate out the games on ABC/CBS/NBC and FOX.
Texas/Arkansas game did well but was on ESPN so obviously that changes things too.
This post was edited on 9/23/21 at 11:29 am
Posted on 9/23/21 at 11:31 am to BigBro
quote:
This isn’t sorted correctly.
Sorry. Bama's score was incorrect. Was 8.884 but I had a type. Fixed.
quote:
I’m guessing our most watched games during that time are..
1. Notre Dame 2016
2. Notre Dame 2015
3. LSU 2019
4. Georgia 2018 Sugar Bowl
5. Oklahoma 2018 Big 12 Title Game
6. Oklahoma 2018
7. Kansas 2016 jk maybe
Well the list only includes regular season games.
Texas' games include:
10.954 million- Notre Dame (2016)
8.630 million- LSU (2019)
7.250 million- Oklahoma (2019)
5.608 million- Oklahoma (2018)
The Texas-Notre Dame game of 2015 failed to hit million viewers (4.06)
Those are strong numbers, but the number of games are few and far between.
Posted on 9/23/21 at 11:32 am to BHMKyle
quote:
4. Auburn- 77.60
Posted on 9/23/21 at 11:36 am to BHMKyle
quote:
20. Ole Miss- 51.53
Quite impressive from a Landmass school.
There is a little under 3 million people in the State of Mississippi.
Posted on 9/23/21 at 11:39 am to AustinAggie
quote:
I’m sorry, but shouldn’t Arkansas be somewhere on this list?
If not, they will be here soon.
Posted on 9/23/21 at 11:40 am to Solo Cam
quote:
Wait so if a team plays another top 10 team in the viewership rating then that game is removed?
So Bama vs LSU vs Auburn doesn’t count for anyone?
All games count that are in the regular season and hit 5 million viewers. In this particular category (which only counts for 10%), the measure is to see how high a rating a program is capable of when they are not playing their biggest ratings draw opponent.
Alabama vs. LSU and Alabama vs. Auburn are the best examples.
LSU's Top 6 games since 2013 in terms of ratings have all come against Alabama. Is that more about LSU or is it more due to the fact they are playing Alabama? The fact that all the Top 6 are against the Tide shows it probably has more to do with Alabama.
LSU's Highest rated games:
16.64 million- Alabama (2019)
11.90 million- Alabama (2013)
11.54 million- Alabama (2018)
11.06 million- Alabama (2015)
10.39 million- Alabama (2014)
9.110 million- Alabama (2014)
8.630 million- Texas (2019)
So in this case, that 8.630 million achiaved vs. Texas counts as LSU's score in this category.
It'st he same for Auburn. Their Top 7 ratings games have all come against Alabama.
Meanwhile if you look at Alabama's list, their Top 6 highest rated games were spread out among 4 different opponents.... which goes to show they are more responsible for those ratings than their opponent likely is.
Posted on 9/23/21 at 11:42 am to BHMKyle
quote:
College Football's Biggest TV Draws
Mark Mangino probably had the biggest draws of all time.
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