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re: Blue chip ratios for first year coaches

Posted on 7/9/24 at 2:39 am to
Posted by koreandawg
South Korea
Member since Sep 2015
9317 posts
Posted on 7/9/24 at 2:39 am to
quote:

The stat has very little to do with how "great" a program is. It just highlights Richt recruited a shite ton of 3 stars in 2013.


Not really. We got less than 50% blue chippers in 2013 and 2015. In 2014 we got 61%. It wasn't a bad year by Richt recruiting. That's about where Richt recruited. It wasn't some terrible mess, but it wasn't where we had to be to actually win a title. And as you most certainly know, you had to be able to at least be a favorite to win the whole shabang to win the SEC as well.

In Kirby's first press conference he said straight up that he would have to recruit much better to get us where we need to be to win it all. Wasn't a secret.



Posted by Dawg4Life47
Beach
Member since Sep 2013
8546 posts
Posted on 7/9/24 at 6:39 am to
They were comprised mostly of 6th year senior 23 yr olds

Since everyone uses the Stetson argument of age, so will I

Posted by jonnyanony
Member since Nov 2020
10645 posts
Posted on 7/9/24 at 6:44 am to
quote:

"Dan left Florida in shambles"


You can have 1 or 2 positions stacked with 4* and 5* and the rest in shambles and still score high here. It's surface level analysis.
Posted by bamameister
Right here, right now
Member since May 2016
14903 posts
Posted on 7/9/24 at 7:08 am to
Kalen DeBoer
Alabama 2023: 90%

And just looking at this year's recruiting cycle, Coach DeBoer will be enjoying the same distinction next year as well. ROLL TIDE!!!
Posted by bamabaseballsec
Member since Dec 2020
1592 posts
Posted on 7/9/24 at 8:49 am to
I agree with your premise about Dan Mullen and a bare cupboard but it could have been a freak scenario. Take Miami the Randy Shannon years, stacked top 15 classes on each other, 50 percent bcr, but the 50 percent they had were undeveloped and all played the same positions. They were sending rbs wr te and dbs to the nfl. Meanwhile thier qb evaluation was awful and they never recruited any trench players on offense or defense. It was noticeably bad. Especially since they were in the weaker of the two acc divisions in the weakest era of acc football.
Posted by HighTide_ATL
Member since Aug 2020
1947 posts
Posted on 7/9/24 at 11:38 am to
quote:

Which means Kirby inherited a terrible senior class.


In a top 3-4 talent-rich state that lacks any legitimate in-state competition for recruiting

Think that may be one aspect of the premise the OP is overlooking
Posted by bamabaseballsec
Member since Dec 2020
1592 posts
Posted on 7/9/24 at 1:57 pm to
I disagree with richt being bad at recruiting, the majority of richts tenure at uga being above 70 percent bcr was unheard of. It wasn’t til saban broke the sec/playoffs beginning that these super rosters with 75 percent blue chip started popping up.
This post was edited on 7/9/24 at 2:00 pm
Posted by MedDawg
Member since Dec 2009
4487 posts
Posted on 7/9/24 at 2:16 pm to
quote:

I wonder what the percentage of blluechip players was from that Washington team Deboer took to the National Championship game last year?


He took a 4-8 Washington team to 11-2 his first year. Then 14-1. Probably had a low percentage of blue chips both years there.
Posted by 3down10
Member since Sep 2014
23487 posts
Posted on 7/9/24 at 2:21 pm to
quote:


Not really. We got less than 50% blue chippers in 2013 and 2015. In 2014 we got 61%. It wasn't a bad year by Richt recruiting. That's about where Richt recruited. It wasn't some terrible mess, but it wasn't where we had to be to actually win a title. And as you most certainly know, you had to be able to at least be a favorite to win the whole shabang to win the SEC as well.

In Kirby's first press conference he said straight up that he would have to recruit much better to get us where we need to be to win it all. Wasn't a secret.



There isn't a doubt that Georgia recruiting improved under Kirby. I'm just saying the team wasn't in bad shape at all, and the stats your OP is quoting aren't a real reflection of much.

Additionally, it also took Kirby like 6 years to win a NC. None of the other coaches have been at their jobs that long.


Posted by PeleofAnalytics
Member since Jun 2021
2903 posts
Posted on 7/9/24 at 2:30 pm to
quote:

Which means Kirby inherited a terrible senior class.


And Kirby went 8-5 with that team with his best win being at home over an Auburn team that went 8-5 . So he did what he probably should have done.
Posted by djsdawg
Member since Apr 2015
33379 posts
Posted on 7/9/24 at 3:25 pm to
quote:

I'm just saying the team wasn't in bad shape at all, and the stats your OP is quoting aren't a real reflection of much.


Of course you are wrong about uga yet again. It wasn’t on good shape at all, and the stat used was a real reflection
Posted by Tideroller
Lower Alabama
Member since Jan 2022
2437 posts
Posted on 7/9/24 at 3:26 pm to
Alabama's class last year under Saban was #2 nationally and this year under DeBoer it's #2 nationally. I'm not sure what your point is unless it is that the coach who proceeded DeBoer was a good coach? The difference in these other situations is that those schools had a struggling team firing a coach with suboptimal recruiting. Our previous coach wasn't fired, he retired after an SEC Championship and CFP season.
Posted by djsdawg
Member since Apr 2015
33379 posts
Posted on 7/9/24 at 3:27 pm to
quote:

In a top 3-4 talent-rich state that lacks any legitimate in-state competition for recruiting Think that may be one aspect of the premise the OP is overlooking


That aspect doesn’t magically increase the quality of the inherited roster
Posted by DawginSC
Member since Aug 2022
4932 posts
Posted on 7/9/24 at 3:41 pm to
quote:

It just highlights Richt recruited a shite ton of 3 stars in 2013.


Richt had 53% of his class as 3=stars in 2013, 38% in 2014, and 53% in 2015.

Most of his classes hovered around 50% as 4+ stars and 50% as 3 stars. That's what the 51% mark he left for Smart meant.

2016 was kirby's transition year and was 39% 3-stars.

After that...
2017 - 23%
2018 - 15%
2019 - 13%
2020 - 24%
2021 - 20%
2022 - 27%
2023 - 15%
2024 - 21%

The difference in top line talent between a recruiter like Smart who is ranked 1-4 every year and a recruiter like Richt who was normally in the 6-15 range every year is a lot bigger than people think. Going from a 50% blue chip ratio to a 75% or higher blue chip ratio every year is a big difference. People have long overstated how good a situation Smart had when he came to UGA.

UGA wasn't without talent, but they weren't loaded either.

Now... they're loaded.
Posted by DawginSC
Member since Aug 2022
4932 posts
Posted on 7/9/24 at 3:48 pm to
quote:

Additionally, it also took Kirby like 6 years to win a NC. None of the other coaches have been at their jobs that long.


You do remember that Kirby had UGA in the national championship game in his second year and took the game into overtime right?

Yeah, he didn't win the title, but that's pretty darn good for a coach in his second year ever as the head of a program who still hadn't had enough recruiting classes to flip the roster and develop depth of talent (like he has now).

It's not like Kirby took a long time to show he was a good coach. From his second year on, UGA's finished 2nd, 7th, 4th, 7th, 1st, 1st and 3rd nationally at the end of the season. He's lost a grand total of 11 games in 7 seasons.
This post was edited on 7/9/24 at 3:49 pm
Posted by 3down10
Member since Sep 2014
23487 posts
Posted on 7/9/24 at 4:08 pm to
quote:


You do remember that Kirby had UGA in the national championship game in his second year and took the game into overtime right?



I remember you had a defense that couldn't stop 2 dimensional offenses and outside Oklahoma, you lost to every good opponent you played. I guess you could take a little credit for a 1 point win over 10-3 Notre Dame.

It was a good team, but you mostly benefited from an easy schedule.

quote:


It's not like Kirby took a long time to show he was a good coach. From his second year on, UGA's finished 2nd, 7th, 4th, 7th, 1st, 1st and 3rd nationally at the end of the season. He's lost a grand total of 11 games in 7 seasons.


I don't think anyone doubts Kirby is a good coach. He's basically the only coach I would have taken over DeBoer. What's in doubt is the narrative he took over a program that was in bad shape.

I mean if you want to talk about times Georgia almost won a National Championship before Kirby, you only need to go back to 2012.
Posted by DawginSC
Member since Aug 2022
4932 posts
Posted on 7/9/24 at 4:16 pm to
If you look at UGA's depth chart in 2017 (a year they made the championship game) there were a ton of freshmen and sophmores or transfers starting for UGA because the upper classmen who were left from Richt weren't that great overall..

#1 and #2 QB's were underclassemen/transfers..
All 3 starting WRs.
2/5ths of the OL.
starting TE.
1 DL.
2 DB

UGA had talent left from Richt at RB, DL and LB. UGA had to start guys in the secondary and on the OL that were frankly not talented enough because the talent Smart had recruited wasn't ready to play much yet. We were starting two freshmen on the OL because it was so weak. Dominick Sanders and Aaron Davis wouldn't see the field at UGA today, but they were starting in 2017 because we had no other options.

Now there were some absolute stars too, Chubb. Michel. Roquan. Lorenzo Carter. Deandre Baker. Isiah Wynn. it wasn't all bad players. But it wasn't deep and UGA was filling a lot of holes with very young guys who weren't quite ready yet or older guys who weren't that talented.

For UGA to go to OT in the national championship game that year was an absolute success in on field coaching, roster management and player development.
Posted by Darindawg
Member since May 2022
2147 posts
Posted on 7/9/24 at 4:20 pm to
Deboer will be sending out job resumes after next year.
KD < Saban...this is a fact, and its undisputed.
Posted by djsdawg
Member since Apr 2015
33379 posts
Posted on 7/9/24 at 4:21 pm to
quote:

you lost to every good opponent you played. I guess you could take a little credit for a 1 point win over 10-3 Notre Dame.


Of course you don’t want to talk about that seccg that bama watched from home. This time, the uga ST didn’t have the worst implosion you and I have ever seen, and we did a 180 in the trenches.
Posted by jchamil
Member since Nov 2009
16771 posts
Posted on 7/9/24 at 4:29 pm to
quote:

"Kirby Smart inherited a great program"


Isn't this just used when comparing Kirby and Saban?
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