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Auburn chance's of making it to the National Championship Game.
Posted on 11/28/13 at 3:02 pm
Posted on 11/28/13 at 3:02 pm
Ive read mostly how important it is for Alabamas NC hopes. Not many people are talking about that Auburn still has a decent chance. Ranked at #4 they will be #3 if they beat Bama. The probability of OSU losing to Michigan may be low but the probability of them losing to Mich State are only slightly below coin flip, fairly even.
Then you have the low possibility of Duke or whomever else outright beating FSU. That probability is very low and not much of the final percentage but could happen if Winston has a really bad game.
And finally you have the scenario where Winston gets exposed as a rapist in time for the voters to bump an Auburn team that beat both Bama and Mizzou/USCe to finish the season.
So while they don't control their own destiny, there are still some scenarios that could work in their favor and they only need one of them to work. Assuming they beat Bama, I would then put the probability of them making the NCG going forward after that win at 35-40%. Not bad at all for not controlling your own destiny.
Then you have the low possibility of Duke or whomever else outright beating FSU. That probability is very low and not much of the final percentage but could happen if Winston has a really bad game.
And finally you have the scenario where Winston gets exposed as a rapist in time for the voters to bump an Auburn team that beat both Bama and Mizzou/USCe to finish the season.
So while they don't control their own destiny, there are still some scenarios that could work in their favor and they only need one of them to work. Assuming they beat Bama, I would then put the probability of them making the NCG going forward after that win at 35-40%. Not bad at all for not controlling your own destiny.
This post was edited on 11/28/13 at 3:18 pm
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Posted on 11/28/13 at 3:10 pm to BlackPawnMartyr
Fail. Clemson doesn't play FSU again. They're in the same division.
Posted on 11/28/13 at 3:12 pm to BlackPawnMartyr
Assuming AU beats UA, there's a strong chance tOSU loses to MSU.
Posted on 11/28/13 at 3:16 pm to SadSouthernBuck
Well that was a very low part of my probability so it doesn't change much. maybe -5% tops.
Posted on 11/28/13 at 3:20 pm to BlackPawnMartyr
A big fat 0%, no way they beat Bama
Posted on 11/28/13 at 3:23 pm to BlackPawnMartyr
Already have my spot reserved for the Auburn NC trophy tour at Walmart.
Posted on 11/28/13 at 3:24 pm to BlackPawnMartyr
I say this with all due respect to Auburn and what they have accomplished this season, but I just don't see them beating Alabama, even at home. Yes, I think they can score some points on the Tide. No, I don't think they can control the tempo. I think Bama will control Tempo and the trenches and win by 10-14 points. JMHO.
With that said, I expect Bama to win the SEC Title vs. either USC or Mizzou. I think Mizzou is the intriguing match-up, but they may not get the shot...I just don't see Johnny Football blowing it two weeks in a row. Guess we'll see soon.
As for Bama's opponent in the Natty game, it's FSU. And after all the smoke clears, Bama will beat em and beat em by 14-21 points. Quite frankly, I think there are 2-4 SEC teams built to beat FSU right now. Florida ain't one of em.
It pains me to say all of this. I am no Bama fan, but I am a realist. Until they actually lose a game, they are the best, period. There is nobody out there top to bottom better. Unfortunately, that's a fact.
With that said, I expect Bama to win the SEC Title vs. either USC or Mizzou. I think Mizzou is the intriguing match-up, but they may not get the shot...I just don't see Johnny Football blowing it two weeks in a row. Guess we'll see soon.
As for Bama's opponent in the Natty game, it's FSU. And after all the smoke clears, Bama will beat em and beat em by 14-21 points. Quite frankly, I think there are 2-4 SEC teams built to beat FSU right now. Florida ain't one of em.
It pains me to say all of this. I am no Bama fan, but I am a realist. Until they actually lose a game, they are the best, period. There is nobody out there top to bottom better. Unfortunately, that's a fact.
Posted on 11/28/13 at 3:26 pm to HuggieBear
Maybe, but our OL and DL is better. They will push UA around. Really depends on how our LBers play.
Posted on 11/28/13 at 3:27 pm to BlackPawnMartyr
7.3558%
Posted on 11/28/13 at 3:31 pm to HuggieBear
Well what would you put the chances of them beating Bama at? 25? 35%? Then you decrease that when you take out the other scenarios of both needing to win the SEC.CG and one of the other teams to lose frick up. So yea before the Bama game its def under 15%.
But now working under the assumption that it is Monday and they have in fact gotten the upset...what would your probability then be?
But now working under the assumption that it is Monday and they have in fact gotten the upset...what would your probability then be?
Posted on 11/28/13 at 3:32 pm to BlackPawnMartyr
quote:
Auburn chance's of making it to the National Championship Game.
...and he just left town.
Posted on 11/28/13 at 3:32 pm to LSURussian
quote:
7.3558%
As it stands now, or working under the assumption that they beat Bama. This thread really wasn't about rather they can beat Bama or not. That thread has been done. This is more about what isn't being talked about as much. They they do have a route to the NCG. Its an uphill one but still a decent pathway.
Posted on 11/28/13 at 3:34 pm to RockyMtnTigerWDE
quote:
Already have my spot reserved for the Auburn NC trophy tour at Walmart.
When you guys win the NC I can't wait to make bumper stickers stating how we beat the NC's!!
Posted on 11/28/13 at 3:35 pm to BlackPawnMartyr
This thread will make a lot of people upset
But there is more of a chance MSU beats OSU than AU beating UA
So if somehow Auburn wins THE iron Bowl, I feel good about our chances at making the NC
But there is more of a chance MSU beats OSU than AU beating UA
So if somehow Auburn wins THE iron Bowl, I feel good about our chances at making the NC
Posted on 11/28/13 at 3:36 pm to BlackPawnMartyr
I give Auburn a 10% chance at winning and that is because the game is at Jordan Hare.
Posted on 11/28/13 at 3:36 pm to BlackPawnMartyr
The chance of AU jumping OSU with back to back top 5 wins is higher than jumping FSU due to Winston, IMO.
I don't think either is at all likely, but it is getting a lot of discussion by media types over the last week or two.
I don't think either is at all likely, but it is getting a lot of discussion by media types over the last week or two.
Posted on 11/28/13 at 3:39 pm to Pettifogger
quote:
chance of AU jumping OSU
Just cant see this happening at all. I would put this at 1%. If OSU wins out they will have had 2 undefeated seasons. "No way" they can get jumped by a 1 loss team. Plus they are yankee media darlings. If it hadn't been for them getting blown out against LSU and UF and losing a lot of respect from the rest of the country as an overrated program, the yankee media would already have them bumped over FSU.
This post was edited on 11/28/13 at 3:41 pm
Posted on 11/28/13 at 3:40 pm to BlackPawnMartyr
If AU wins the next two games we are in and jump OSU. DWI
Winning the next two games would vault us in the computers.
Winning the next two games would vault us in the computers.
This post was edited on 11/28/13 at 3:41 pm
Posted on 11/28/13 at 3:48 pm to BlackPawnMartyr
If Alabama plays like they did against Mississippi State they will lose and it won't be close.
Posted on 11/28/13 at 3:51 pm to BlackPawnMartyr
I don't *think* it happens either, but it is being widely discussed and would probably be further discussed if Auburn wins Saturday.
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