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Analysis utilizing advanced mathematics
Posted on 8/21/20 at 6:28 am
Posted on 8/21/20 at 6:28 am
This short mathematical study will likely be over the head of most of you on this board so some of you should opt out before reading it. It will just confuse you.
Synopsis and Potential Future Impact:
In calendar year 2019 Alabama played in three “highly” critical games. In the first, the NC game against Clemson, the defense gave up 44 points. In the second HC (highly critical) game against LSU, deemed HC because the winner would likely go to the SEC championship and playoffs, the defense gave up 46 points. In the final HC game, Auburn, deemed HC because it was the last opportunity for Alabama to back in to the playoffs and hope to avoid the decimation of the dynasty, the defense gave up 48 points. This in mathematical terms is deemed a trend. Using techniques of extrapolation we can predict that in the next HC game the Alabama defense will likely give up 50 in a losing effort. The question then is what game in 2020 will be deemed HC and will the defense give up 50 in a losing effort? As a thought, Georgia is an early 2020 opponent with a new offense. Could it be the bulldogs?
I await comments from any of my learned mathematical colleagues.
Synopsis and Potential Future Impact:
In calendar year 2019 Alabama played in three “highly” critical games. In the first, the NC game against Clemson, the defense gave up 44 points. In the second HC (highly critical) game against LSU, deemed HC because the winner would likely go to the SEC championship and playoffs, the defense gave up 46 points. In the final HC game, Auburn, deemed HC because it was the last opportunity for Alabama to back in to the playoffs and hope to avoid the decimation of the dynasty, the defense gave up 48 points. This in mathematical terms is deemed a trend. Using techniques of extrapolation we can predict that in the next HC game the Alabama defense will likely give up 50 in a losing effort. The question then is what game in 2020 will be deemed HC and will the defense give up 50 in a losing effort? As a thought, Georgia is an early 2020 opponent with a new offense. Could it be the bulldogs?
I await comments from any of my learned mathematical colleagues.
11
Posted on 8/21/20 at 6:43 am to Buyugurl
While it is a trend. It's 3 games over one year. I'll need to see that over at least another year before I'd worry if I was a Bama fan. But that may just be me.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 6:50 am to Buyugurl
You overlooked the mathematical constant though. That being all three of those HCs were against Tigers. My prediction: they give up 50 to Missouri in week 1.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 6:56 am to EasterEgg
Very nice addition to the analysis. That one was looking me right in the face. That’s why i need the support of the scientific community.
Thank you for your input.
Thank you for your input.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 6:58 am to EasterEgg
quote:
Missouri in week 1
It will certainly make or break the Tiger curse.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 7:22 am to Buyugurl
Thank you for submitting this scientific study for peer review. I find no error in your analysis.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 7:27 am to Che Boludo
I think we can all agree this is 1st world problem..potentially, but not likely. I do believe that once Bama is on the field With a team that matches up athletically to them, their coaching becomes a hindrance. It becomes Nick vs. a collective of coaches inserting many ideas. Dabo, Gus and Ed know they DONT KNOW everything and rely on their staff. Nick and I’ll say Kirby also, believe they do know everything. My 2 cents.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 7:37 am to EasterEgg
quote:
You overlooked the mathematical constant though. That being all three of those HCs were against Tigers. My prediction: they give up 50 to Missouri in week 1.
While looking at the trend is fine...you can't forget the patterns as well. So far, for HC game losses based on opponent color scheme it goes Orange, Yellow, Orange...further reinforcing the Missouri upset when they Yellow Tigers face Bama.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 7:45 am to madmaxvol
quote:
While looking at the trend is fine...you can't forget the patterns as well. So far, for HC game losses based on opponent color scheme it goes Orange, Yellow, Orange...further reinforcing the Missouri upset when they Yellow Tigers face Bama.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 7:46 am to Buyugurl
quote:
In the first, the NC game against Clemson, the defense gave up 44 points.
False
quote:
In the final HC game, Auburn, deemed HC because it was the last opportunity for Alabama to back in to the playoffs and hope to avoid the decimation of the dynasty, the defense gave up 48 points
False
This post was edited on 8/21/20 at 7:47 am
Posted on 8/21/20 at 7:57 am to Buyugurl
Hello, I am a fellow learned mathematician here to give his two cents:
I compiled the number of points given up by the Alabama defense in every ranked game since the start of the 2009 season and applied a moving average trendline with a period of two. Moving average allows us to analyze the performance of the Alabama defense at a particular point in time and then compare it to other points in time.
Analysis shows that 2019 was the worst year for Alabama's defense in the Saban era. Their moving average skyrocketed from 0 to nearly 50 and never dropped below 30. This is evidence of why Alabama wasn't able to win big games this past year despite having historic offensive production for most of the year.
We see that deep valleys follow almost every high peak in this data set, which seems to suggest that Alabama's defense will improve significantly in the next few games. Trendlines are nothing more than guesses though, so who knows what will happen in 2020. If Alabama were to give up 58 points in our game in Oxford this year, I wouldn't be upset.
Good luck this season you corn dog worshipping Tigahs.
I compiled the number of points given up by the Alabama defense in every ranked game since the start of the 2009 season and applied a moving average trendline with a period of two. Moving average allows us to analyze the performance of the Alabama defense at a particular point in time and then compare it to other points in time.
Analysis shows that 2019 was the worst year for Alabama's defense in the Saban era. Their moving average skyrocketed from 0 to nearly 50 and never dropped below 30. This is evidence of why Alabama wasn't able to win big games this past year despite having historic offensive production for most of the year.
We see that deep valleys follow almost every high peak in this data set, which seems to suggest that Alabama's defense will improve significantly in the next few games. Trendlines are nothing more than guesses though, so who knows what will happen in 2020. If Alabama were to give up 58 points in our game in Oxford this year, I wouldn't be upset.
Good luck this season you corn dog worshipping Tigahs.
This post was edited on 8/21/20 at 8:05 am
Posted on 8/21/20 at 8:01 am to Buyugurl
I have reviewed these figures and come to the same conclusion. May I cite your work in my upcoming paper?
Posted on 8/21/20 at 8:04 am to RebelTheBear
More interesting factoids from my research:
-The Alabama defense has shut out top 25 opponents 7 times in 72 games, or 9.72% of the time
-Since 2009, the average point differential of top 25 games in which Alabama has played is 13.75 points in favor of Alabama.
-Against top 25 opponents, Alabama has given up 40 or more points ten times since the beginning of the 2009 season. Alabama has given up 10 or less points twenty-four times in the same time span.
-The Alabama defense has shut out top 25 opponents 7 times in 72 games, or 9.72% of the time
-Since 2009, the average point differential of top 25 games in which Alabama has played is 13.75 points in favor of Alabama.
-Against top 25 opponents, Alabama has given up 40 or more points ten times since the beginning of the 2009 season. Alabama has given up 10 or less points twenty-four times in the same time span.
This post was edited on 8/21/20 at 4:46 pm
Posted on 8/21/20 at 8:04 am to RebelTheBear
quote:
RebelTheBear
Posted on 8/21/20 at 8:10 am to Porter Osborne Jr
It's Friday and my work morning has been very unproductive so far.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 8:18 am to RebelTheBear
In designing a study, sample size calculation is important for methodological and ethical reasons.
When viewing the OP, one should be on alert to ascertain that the study they are reading was subjected to sample size calculation.
In the absence of this calculation, the findings of the study should be interpreted with caution.
When viewing the OP, one should be on alert to ascertain that the study they are reading was subjected to sample size calculation.
In the absence of this calculation, the findings of the study should be interpreted with caution.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 8:26 am to Buyugurl
Doesn't take a study to understand that when you open up an offense, your D suffers. It is a line a coach has to walk.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 8:26 am to Morris1
quote:
I think we can all agree this is 1st world problem..potentially, but not likely. I do believe that once Bama is on the field With a team that matches up athletically to them, their coaching becomes a hindrance. It becomes Nick vs. a collective of coaches inserting many ideas. Dabo, Gus and Ed know they DONT KNOW everything and rely on their staff. Nick and I’ll say Kirby also, believe they do know everything. My 2 cents.
So it took LSU 8 years to match up athletically with Alabama?
This post was edited on 8/21/20 at 8:27 am
Posted on 8/21/20 at 9:27 am to RebelTheBear
quote:
It's Friday and my work morning has been very unproductive so far.
Mine too
Posted on 8/21/20 at 9:28 am to Buyugurl
quote:
utilizing advanced mathematics
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