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Alabama road to the playoffs
Posted on 11/11/19 at 11:30 am
Posted on 11/11/19 at 11:30 am
Because this KEEPS coming up, here is the absurdly unlikely scenario it would take for Alabama to make it:
1. Undefeated Clemson (easiest path at this stage)
2. Undefeated LSU (If LSU loses to UGA in the SECCG, no way Alabama goes)
3. Undefeated Ohio State (with a particularly brutal dismantling of Minnesota absolutely required in the B1GCG OR Minn loses to Wisconsin OR Iowa AND loses B1G CG)
Then:
Big 12:
Oklahoma beats Baylor, loses to Okie State
Texas beats Baylor
OU wins Big 12 with 2 losses
Oregon loses to either Arizona, ASU, or Oregon State
OR
Utah loses to UCLA or Arizona (they're not losing to Colorado)
The team that takes a loss then wins the PAC-12 Championship Game. 2-loss PAC 12 champ.
**OR** (and this is even less likely than all that)
LSU loses to Texas A&M AND either Ole Miss or Arkansas.
Now that we have covered this convoluted, "if it you guessed this happening you should have bought a lottery ticket", absurd scenario - can we stop with it all? GEEZ.
1. Undefeated Clemson (easiest path at this stage)
2. Undefeated LSU (If LSU loses to UGA in the SECCG, no way Alabama goes)
3. Undefeated Ohio State (with a particularly brutal dismantling of Minnesota absolutely required in the B1GCG OR Minn loses to Wisconsin OR Iowa AND loses B1G CG)
Then:
Big 12:
Oklahoma beats Baylor, loses to Okie State
Texas beats Baylor
OU wins Big 12 with 2 losses
Oregon loses to either Arizona, ASU, or Oregon State
OR
Utah loses to UCLA or Arizona (they're not losing to Colorado)
The team that takes a loss then wins the PAC-12 Championship Game. 2-loss PAC 12 champ.
**OR** (and this is even less likely than all that)
LSU loses to Texas A&M AND either Ole Miss or Arkansas.
Now that we have covered this convoluted, "if it you guessed this happening you should have bought a lottery ticket", absurd scenario - can we stop with it all? GEEZ.
18
Posted on 11/11/19 at 11:32 am to skrayper
You're right. Bama shouldn't. But someone on the committee or someone who works on the computers or some coaches somewhere puts Bama in. They have for the last 10 years. BUT ... what makes it different is that if Bama does get in (and somehow they probably will), they'll get beat by us by 3 scores or better. So, not worried either way.
Posted on 11/11/19 at 11:32 am to skrayper
Bama will get in over a 1 loss Pac 12 or Big 12 champ, or even a 1 loss Minnesota team who makes it to the Big 10 champ game, because Bama.
Posted on 11/11/19 at 11:34 am to skrayper
Bama wins out..... they are in. Period. It sucks but it will happen.
Posted on 11/11/19 at 11:36 am to skrayper
I think Bama will get in if both the Pac-12 and Big 12 Champs have 2 losses.
I think they'll be left out if either of those are 12-1. The other conference commissioners will literally blow up the system if a 1 loss conf champ is left out.
However a 2 loss conf champ vs 1 loss Bama and Bama is in like Flynn
I think they'll be left out if either of those are 12-1. The other conference commissioners will literally blow up the system if a 1 loss conf champ is left out.
However a 2 loss conf champ vs 1 loss Bama and Bama is in like Flynn
Posted on 11/11/19 at 11:36 am to CFFreak
quote:
So, not worried either way.
The strong lobby against Bama on this board looks like y’all are terrified of Bama. It’s funny.
Posted on 11/11/19 at 11:37 am to skrayper
If LSU, Clemson, and OSU all win their conference championship games, Bama is in at 4
1. LSU 13-0
2. OSU 13-0
3. Clemson 13-0
4. Bama 11-1
1. LSU 13-0
2. OSU 13-0
3. Clemson 13-0
4. Bama 11-1
This post was edited on 11/11/19 at 11:39 am
Posted on 11/11/19 at 11:37 am to skrayper
If Bama wins out, Oregon is a two loss conference champ, and Bama gets in over Oregon, this will incentivize scheduling weak OOC games. I think the Committee understands this and will punish Bama for it.
Posted on 11/11/19 at 11:38 am to rpr4695
Oregon losing to Auburn helps Bama a ton
Posted on 11/11/19 at 11:40 am to LSURep864
quote:
I think Bama will get in if both the Pac-12 and Big 12 Champs have 2 losses.
I think they'll be left out if either of those are 12-1. The other conference commissioners will literally blow up the system if a 1 loss conf champ is left out.
However a 2 loss conf champ vs 1 loss Bama and Bama is in like Flynn
That's what I think, and why I think it is highly unlikely. While the Big 12 has a CHANCE of having a 2-loss champ, the PAC12 just doesn't - both Oregon and Utah are pretty much done with anyone who has a reasonable shot at beating either of them. I think they'll both have 1 loss going into the championship game. It would take a pretty major upset - the only shot really is Utah losing to UCLA, and then beating Oregon in the title game.
The other chance is Minnesota losing two games, Wisconsin getting into the B1GCG and then upsetting Ohio State. Then you'd have 1-loss OSU, but even then I cannot imagine them getting in over Alabama. I think OSU would have to lose to Penn State, then PSU losing in the title game. Not IMPOSSIBLE, but highly IMPROBABLE.
Posted on 11/11/19 at 11:42 am to The Contrarian
quote:
The strong lobby against Bama on this board looks like y’all are terrified of Bama. It’s funny.
As a Bama fan, I would be happy if we made it to the playoffs.
I am just tired of seeing these long posts about how it is a done deal, etc. It isn't. This has less to do with a "What will Alabama do?" and more of a "what's the rest of college football look like?"
Posted on 11/11/19 at 11:43 am to rpr4695
quote:
If Bama wins out, Oregon is a two loss conference champ, and Bama gets in over Oregon, this will incentivize scheduling weak OOC games. I think the Committee understands this and will punish Bama for it.
Perhaps? The Duke game hurts, but also had less to do with Alabama intentionally scheduling Duke and instead of allowing the ACC to work on setting up the game. It's why I'm very glad we're ditching that in future years and setting up home-for-home games with big name teams.
Posted on 11/11/19 at 11:44 am to skrayper
It doesn't matter, Auburn is going to beat Alabama.
Posted on 11/11/19 at 11:46 am to terriblegreen
They don't deserve to get in if they don't make their conference championship game. Sorry Gumps Paul Jr. ,should not be allowed to pay off committee members. Why screw over a 1loss PAC 12 team who earned it? You have not with a 56 ranked SOS!!!
Posted on 11/11/19 at 11:47 am to skrayper
Bama is going to need OU and Oregon to lose another. It's that simple
Posted on 11/11/19 at 11:50 am to TigerTalker16
I don't think so. A one loss conference champion big 12 are PAC-12 will get in over a one loss Bama.
Posted on 11/11/19 at 11:51 am to The Contrarian
Dude, first ... why are you here? This is not a chester the molester conference board.
Secondly, did you not watch the game? Have you not watched any of our games?
Secondly, did you not watch the game? Have you not watched any of our games?
Posted on 11/11/19 at 11:53 am to TigerTalker16
quote:
If LSU, Clemson, and OSU all win their conference championship games, Bama is in at 4
1. LSU 13-0
2. OSU 13-0
3. Clemson 13-0
4. Bama 11-1
A 1-loss non-conference championship team has never gotten in over a 1-loss conference champ. Won't happen.
This post was edited on 11/11/19 at 11:53 am
Posted on 11/11/19 at 11:54 am to TigerTalker16
A 1 loss oregon is in. Sorry gumps
Posted on 11/11/19 at 11:54 am to skrayper
LINK
Here is Youtube Clip of the 2017 Selection when it was 1 loss non conf champ Bama vs Ohio State as 2 loss Conf Champ, who had a terrible loss at Iowa.
It was a HUGE debate about a two loss conf champ vs a one loss Bama. I've got to think, when it's a 1 loss conf champ vs 1 loss non conf champ the conf champ will have the tie breaker. All the commentators said they'd be "shocked if Bama was in." Which they were.
With that said, there is nothing more Pac-12 than both Oregon and Utah derping against some scrub team down the stretch and winning the conference with 2 losses, same for the Big 12. I can easily see Baylor beating OU in the regular season, then choking the the title game vs OU. Making OU 2 loss conf champs.
Here is Youtube Clip of the 2017 Selection when it was 1 loss non conf champ Bama vs Ohio State as 2 loss Conf Champ, who had a terrible loss at Iowa.
It was a HUGE debate about a two loss conf champ vs a one loss Bama. I've got to think, when it's a 1 loss conf champ vs 1 loss non conf champ the conf champ will have the tie breaker. All the commentators said they'd be "shocked if Bama was in." Which they were.
With that said, there is nothing more Pac-12 than both Oregon and Utah derping against some scrub team down the stretch and winning the conference with 2 losses, same for the Big 12. I can easily see Baylor beating OU in the regular season, then choking the the title game vs OU. Making OU 2 loss conf champs.
This post was edited on 11/11/19 at 11:55 am
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