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re: 5-Stars Overrated?
Posted on 12/20/19 at 9:05 am to uofarolltide
Posted on 12/20/19 at 9:05 am to uofarolltide
No team uses star designations, it’s a shallow construct made for fans
Star designations are heavily influenced by who has offered the player
When you get past the top 300 prospects or so, it becomes way more about program fit than anything else.
Star designations are heavily influenced by who has offered the player
When you get past the top 300 prospects or so, it becomes way more about program fit than anything else.
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Posted on 12/20/19 at 9:09 am to Draconian Sanctions
But teams do rank players and it’s not a coincidence the rankings are similar.
Posted on 12/20/19 at 9:30 am to uofarolltide
They are 5 stars in high school...it doesn't always translate into a 5 star college career. They are more times than not but it's never going to be a 100% correct.
Posted on 12/20/19 at 9:39 am to uofarolltide
So now they are overrated but when Bama sign a bunch they are better? Got it.
Posted on 12/20/19 at 9:40 am to jumpstart
quote:But more times than not they are the ones you remember.
They are 5 stars in high school...it doesn't always translate into a 5 star college career.
Posted on 12/20/19 at 9:49 am to djsdawg
quote:
But teams do rank players and it’s not a coincidence the rankings are similar.
Everyone’s rankings are different though
The difference between the last few 5 stars and the top few 4 stars is arbitrary, same for any other cutoff. Yet they have huge ramifications in the rankings.
At a macro level yeah if you’re getting a bunch of guys who are consensus top 100 or 300 players you’re going to have a great or good football team respectively, but the difference between a few spots here and there isn’t significant (generally)
This post was edited on 12/20/19 at 9:54 am
Posted on 12/20/19 at 9:59 am to Draconian Sanctions
quote:
The difference between the last few 5 stars and the top few 4 stars is arbitrary, same for any other cutoff. Yet they have huge ramifications in the rankings.
How so? I don’t think the class calculator for 247 would prove this.
There is a reason why bama, uga, Clemson, Ohio state, and a few others fight for mostly the same group of guys. The success curve goes down at a similar rate going from 5 star to top 100 to 4 star to 3 star to unranked.
Posted on 12/20/19 at 11:05 am to uofarolltide
They tend to be lazy and entitled because like my little brother they were always the best without really even tryin.
Posted on 12/20/19 at 6:56 pm to skrayper
quote:
I want to say that something like that hit someone, maybe Tennessee? It was not too long ago, a school had a great haul at the skill positions but didn't do nearly as well because they were thin in the trenches.
There's no doubt that BJs classes were better on paper than they were on the field. Though, I think the reason for that was two-fold:first, it seemed like BJ was more concerned with how many stars a player had/recruiting rankings than he was with roster management, filling needs, etc. Second, it doesn't matter how many blue chip recruits you sign if you don't develop them, coach them up, scheme correctly, or put them in the best opportunity to succeed.
The latter of those two large issues was BJs biggest problem, imo. I don't think BJ did a great job of filling needs/looking at fit re: needs, character, leadership, etc, but more importantly, there seemed to be almost no player development whatsoever. That, imo, was BJs biggest flaw.
Further, without Dobbs, who really probably never got quite the respect he deserved, BJ probably gets canned after 2 or 3 years max on the job.
Posted on 12/20/19 at 7:25 pm to uofarolltide
I think the real misleading thing, already touched on, is the huge range that makes a 4 star. There really is a difference between a low 4 star and a high four star.
Five Star players are guys that, when at a camp being evaluated, among dozens of high-level guys at their position, a coach says "these guys are all pretty damn good, but that guy, that guy over there, he's different.."
There's only about 25-30 5 Star grades a year. It's pretty special.
That said, there's not alot of them to go around. Most teams are going to be built around 4 stars jsut because of the numbers. If a team signs 40% of all the 5 stars in the country, that's still only half of a signing class.
Also, it's been my observation that 5 Star ratings mean alot more in skill positions like running backs and quarterbacks, and to a lesser degree OLB and WR. Linemen and DB's tend to be less predictable.
Five Star players are guys that, when at a camp being evaluated, among dozens of high-level guys at their position, a coach says "these guys are all pretty damn good, but that guy, that guy over there, he's different.."
There's only about 25-30 5 Star grades a year. It's pretty special.
That said, there's not alot of them to go around. Most teams are going to be built around 4 stars jsut because of the numbers. If a team signs 40% of all the 5 stars in the country, that's still only half of a signing class.
Also, it's been my observation that 5 Star ratings mean alot more in skill positions like running backs and quarterbacks, and to a lesser degree OLB and WR. Linemen and DB's tend to be less predictable.
Posted on 12/20/19 at 7:27 pm to uofarolltide
quote:Yeah but without those elite 5*s, you just have a bunch of players with medium talent. Bama's defense isn't the same without 5*s everywhere now and the offense spuddered without Tua. Auburn 2010 would have done nothing without Cam and everyone else the same.
The real meat of any elite team is 4 star recruits.
Waddle, Ruggs, Devonta Smith, Amari Cooper, Jalen Hurts, etc the list goes on
Occasionally coaching makes a big enough difference to overcome the number of 5*s (ex: Auburn's offense in 2013). But more times than not it's the top players (5*s) that's making the headlines and plays throughout college.
This post was edited on 12/20/19 at 7:31 pm
Posted on 12/20/19 at 7:29 pm to uofarolltide
5 stars are those top 25-30 players in the country. How many 4 stars are there? 300? 305? It would be interesting to see “high four stars” that being the top 150 guys and the correlation there. I bet that’s pretty interesting.
Posted on 12/20/19 at 8:37 pm to baldona
Pretty depressing thinking of the three main 5 stars that never panned out for Auburn.
Byron Cowart
Roc Thomas
Trovon Reed
One could also argue Michael Dyer, but he helped win a championship. So he probably deserves to be off the list.
Byron Cowart
Roc Thomas
Trovon Reed
One could also argue Michael Dyer, but he helped win a championship. So he probably deserves to be off the list.
Posted on 12/20/19 at 9:01 pm to jumpstart
quote:..Agree...it was told to me by an LSU trainer that in high school you may have like 4 or 5 excellent players so they shine more but when they reach college well there’s like 40 great players...everyone is good... so the supposably 5* in high school looks like an average Joe player in College and sometimes never see the field...level of competition in high school means alot also ...LSU has had their share of both over the years... 5*’s play like 3*’s and 3*’s play like 5*’s....aka, players like 5* LB Garrett who never saw the field and transferred and 5* Gatorade player of the year Chris Pettaway who never was a starter his whole career @ LSU... but guys like 3* Jacob Hester who was a starter and played in the NFL & current 2* Justin Jefferson who now starts for LSU @WR and has been a starter from practically day one and has proved himself ..you just never know till they play on the college level how they will pan out ...
They are 5 stars in high school...it doesn't always translate into a 5 star college career. They are more times than not but it's never going to be a 100% correct.
This post was edited on 12/20/19 at 9:09 pm
Posted on 12/20/19 at 9:21 pm to lovinLSU
It would be nice if teams could hold a camp and run a scrimmage with current players and piece in recruits to see how they compare to their players. If they compete (they likely aren't going to do great bc lack of experience) or fall flat it would help both the recuits and the coaches know where they stand.
They may can do this but seems like it would be a violation somehow.
It may scare some off bc competition (you don't want them anyways) but if they do well then it may give that school an edge with them thinking they can play right away.
They may can do this but seems like it would be a violation somehow.
It may scare some off bc competition (you don't want them anyways) but if they do well then it may give that school an edge with them thinking they can play right away.
This post was edited on 12/20/19 at 9:23 pm
Posted on 12/20/19 at 9:27 pm to Rabern57
quote:
They may can do this but seems like it would be a violation somehow.
Illegal to simulate game play.
Richt self reported himself for this when he was recruiting Crowell.
Posted on 12/21/19 at 12:39 am to uofarolltide
Meh, to me it’s all positional and what fits your teams needs. You could hypothetically win the recruiting rankings with six 5* QBs but obviously only 1 plays.
I’d much rather have two 5* DEs and a few 4*s and 3s on defense
I’d much rather have two 5* DEs and a few 4*s and 3s on defense
Posted on 12/21/19 at 1:25 am to Eli Goldfinger
quote:
UGA has more 5* croots on their roster than anyone.
Correct. At least as of 9/29/2019, the last team talent ranking by 247..........
https://247sports.com/Season/2019-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/
Posted on 12/21/19 at 8:02 am to uofarolltide
There is a lot more 4 star recruits then 5 stars so of course a lot more of them will work out. The higher the star rating the more like a player is to be a great college player and get drafted. I believe 2 of the 4 QBs in the playoffs were 5 stars . That’s crazy when there is only about 50 5 star players a year.
Posted on 12/21/19 at 8:09 am to CNB
quote:
Offer lists are way more telling than stars
This.
A 3* from middle of nowhere LA, MS, or AL that didn’t/couldn’t do the camp/Nike circuit but has offers from A1abama, LSU, UGA and Auburn is probably gonna be a good player
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