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2021-22 SEC hoops early KenPom projections
Posted on 4/14/21 at 3:33 pm
Posted on 4/14/21 at 3:33 pm
I have reverse engineered KenPom's preseason rankings the last couple years have posted them over the summer. They have been close to dead on once all the data is in. I will try and keep updating throughout the offseason as there will obviously be even more movement with transfers/signees/declarations, etc. I waited longer than usual but it seems like things are starting to settle in a bit now.
KenPom uses a good bit of coach's history and program history in his preseason rankings and I have accounted for the weight that was given to that in the last two seasons, though it is still heavily dependent on returning production of players and composite averages of recruits based on past recruits of similar ranking.
These are the lineups I plugged in but the top 5 reserves are used as well so if there is a small error it shouldn’t influence things too much. I did not plug in all 357 teams so I can’t tell you the National ranking just the raw KP data team by team in the league.
Here is what it spit out as of today. Some highly ranked 2022 guys who may reclass like Scoota Henderson and Brandon Huntley Hatfield are not entered in yet because we don’t know what their 2021 composite ranking will be.
Decent sized gap between 1 and 2. 2-6 all very close. Huge gap between 6 and 7. Another big gap between 10 and 11.
1. Alabama
JD Davison
Jaden Shackelford
Josh Primo
Noah Gurley
Alex Tchikou
2. Kentucky
Nolan Hickman
Kellan Grady
Jacob Toppin
Daimion Collins
Oscar Tshiebwe
3. Arkansas
Chris Lykes
JD Notae
Stanley Umude
Au’Diese Toney
Jaylin Williams
4. Tennessee
Kennedy Chandler
Justin Powell
Josiah Jordan-James
John Fulkerson
Jonas Aidoo
5. Auburn
Wendell Green Jr.
Zep Jasper
Allen Flanigan
Jabari Smith
Walker Kessler
6. Florida
Tyree Appleby
Myreon Jones
Kowacie Reeves
Anthony Duruji
Colin Castleton
7. Mississippi State
Iverson Molinar
DJ Stewart
Cameron Matthews
Derek Fountain
Garrison Brooks
8. LSU
Xavier Pinson
Eric Gaines
Mwani Wilkinson
Aundre Hyatt
Josh LeBlanc
9. Vanderbilt
Trey Thomas
Jordan Wright
Myles Stute
Dylan Disu
Liam Robbins
10. Ole Miss
Daeshun Ruffin
Jarkel Joiner
Matthew Murrell
Luis Rodriguez
Nysier Brooks
11. South Carolina
AJ Lawson
Erik Stevenson
Jermaine Couisnard
Keyshawn Bryant
Wildens Leveque
12. Texas A&M
Andre Gordon
Hassan Diarra
Manny Obaseki
Emmanuel Miller
Jaxson Robinson
13. Georgia
Sahvir Wheeler
KD Johnson
Jabri Abdur-Rahim
Jaylin Ingram
Tyrone Baker
14. Missouri
Jarron Coleman
Amari Davis
DaJuan Gordon
Kobe Brown
Yaya Keita
KenPom uses a good bit of coach's history and program history in his preseason rankings and I have accounted for the weight that was given to that in the last two seasons, though it is still heavily dependent on returning production of players and composite averages of recruits based on past recruits of similar ranking.
These are the lineups I plugged in but the top 5 reserves are used as well so if there is a small error it shouldn’t influence things too much. I did not plug in all 357 teams so I can’t tell you the National ranking just the raw KP data team by team in the league.
Here is what it spit out as of today. Some highly ranked 2022 guys who may reclass like Scoota Henderson and Brandon Huntley Hatfield are not entered in yet because we don’t know what their 2021 composite ranking will be.
Decent sized gap between 1 and 2. 2-6 all very close. Huge gap between 6 and 7. Another big gap between 10 and 11.
1. Alabama
JD Davison
Jaden Shackelford
Josh Primo
Noah Gurley
Alex Tchikou
2. Kentucky
Nolan Hickman
Kellan Grady
Jacob Toppin
Daimion Collins
Oscar Tshiebwe
3. Arkansas
Chris Lykes
JD Notae
Stanley Umude
Au’Diese Toney
Jaylin Williams
4. Tennessee
Kennedy Chandler
Justin Powell
Josiah Jordan-James
John Fulkerson
Jonas Aidoo
5. Auburn
Wendell Green Jr.
Zep Jasper
Allen Flanigan
Jabari Smith
Walker Kessler
6. Florida
Tyree Appleby
Myreon Jones
Kowacie Reeves
Anthony Duruji
Colin Castleton
7. Mississippi State
Iverson Molinar
DJ Stewart
Cameron Matthews
Derek Fountain
Garrison Brooks
8. LSU
Xavier Pinson
Eric Gaines
Mwani Wilkinson
Aundre Hyatt
Josh LeBlanc
9. Vanderbilt
Trey Thomas
Jordan Wright
Myles Stute
Dylan Disu
Liam Robbins
10. Ole Miss
Daeshun Ruffin
Jarkel Joiner
Matthew Murrell
Luis Rodriguez
Nysier Brooks
11. South Carolina
AJ Lawson
Erik Stevenson
Jermaine Couisnard
Keyshawn Bryant
Wildens Leveque
12. Texas A&M
Andre Gordon
Hassan Diarra
Manny Obaseki
Emmanuel Miller
Jaxson Robinson
13. Georgia
Sahvir Wheeler
KD Johnson
Jabri Abdur-Rahim
Jaylin Ingram
Tyrone Baker
14. Missouri
Jarron Coleman
Amari Davis
DaJuan Gordon
Kobe Brown
Yaya Keita
This post was edited on 4/14/21 at 4:05 pm
21
Posted on 4/14/21 at 3:36 pm to volfan30
Posted on 4/14/21 at 3:37 pm to volfan30
Mizzou too high.
Posted on 4/14/21 at 3:37 pm to volfan30
Castleton has not pulled his name out of the draft that I have heard as of yet.
Posted on 4/14/21 at 3:37 pm to volfan30
The greatest damn post of every season
Well done as always VF30, well done
Well done as always VF30, well done
This post was edited on 4/14/21 at 3:38 pm
Posted on 4/14/21 at 3:40 pm to bigDgator
Yeah I made a few assumptions. Castelton staying in though would not impact Florida’s standing.
Posted on 4/14/21 at 3:56 pm to volfan30
Nice post. A couple questions.
Are freshman determined by recruiting ranking?
If so, What happens to Georgia’s lineup if you substitute JAR’s abysmal data at Virginia with his 0.9854 composite instead? Also, I seriously doubt Baker starts. apparently Georgia will be landing a decent big man soon but even if they don’t Bridges will probably start.
Are freshman determined by recruiting ranking?
If so, What happens to Georgia’s lineup if you substitute JAR’s abysmal data at Virginia with his 0.9854 composite instead? Also, I seriously doubt Baker starts. apparently Georgia will be landing a decent big man soon but even if they don’t Bridges will probably start.
This post was edited on 4/14/21 at 3:57 pm
Posted on 4/14/21 at 3:56 pm to volfan30
quote:
Decent sized gap between 1 and 2.
Posted on 4/14/21 at 4:02 pm to volfan30
quote:
14. Missouri
Posted on 4/14/21 at 4:05 pm to volfan30
quote:
Yeah I made a few assumptions. Castelton staying in though would not impact Florida’s standing.
Then is is not a good barometer. We go from 5th or 6th to 8th or 9th in the SEC without him imo.
Posted on 4/14/21 at 4:07 pm to diddlydawg7
If you remove JAR and add the HS version of him it bumps up UGA almost enough to pass A&M.
If you add a decent big man (I plugged in Garrison Brooks just as an example) it takes them up into the group of teams 7-10, just behind Ole Miss.
If you add a decent big man (I plugged in Garrison Brooks just as an example) it takes them up into the group of teams 7-10, just behind Ole Miss.
Posted on 4/14/21 at 4:09 pm to bigDgator
There is a massive gap between MSU and UF in terms of expected adjusted efficiency.
Posted on 4/14/21 at 4:13 pm to volfan30
It’s great being a basketball school.
Posted on 4/14/21 at 4:23 pm to RockyMtnTigerWDE
quote:
It’s great being a basketball school
Posted on 4/14/21 at 6:04 pm to volfan30
I wonder, if UGA does actually finish 13th in the SEC next year, does Crean survive to 2022-23. I think not.
Posted on 4/14/21 at 6:39 pm to volfan30
Would be awesome if Jackson decides to come back to try to move into the lottery.
Posted on 4/14/21 at 6:51 pm to BluegrassBelle
Would be awesome if you had single digit wins again too
Posted on 4/14/21 at 7:11 pm to TeddyWestside
What does Crean need to do to survive
Posted on 4/14/21 at 7:26 pm to volfan30
Devo Davis not on the list for Arkansas.
bullshite list.
bullshite list.
Posted on 4/14/21 at 7:27 pm to volfan30
BasketVOLS behind Kentucky is pure shite. Get a hold of yourself.
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