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re: Georgia Breakdown.

Posted on 10/26/19 at 9:23 pm to
Posted by StrawsDrawnAtRandom
Member since Sep 2013
21146 posts
Posted on 10/26/19 at 9:23 pm to
Georgia's resume is starting to look extremely shaky.

South Carolina - Beat UGA at home with their backup's backup, lost to Florida by 3 possessions (we shut the team down and permitted them to move their offense and score) and of course got whooped up on by Tennessee.

Notre Dame - Thought to be a legitimate top ten team, down to Michigan 24 - 7 almost in the 4th Quarter. Notre Dame has 98 total yards entering the 4th.

Vanderbilt - Horrific loss to UNLV.

Tennessee - Lost to Georgia State, blown out by Florida, a bad loss to BYU.

Kentucky - Had 35 yards passing and couldn't score against them until deep in the third quarter. Kentucky has a losing record as well, including a three possession loss to South Carolina. Apparently they're crushing Missouri, though.

Dayum shame.



This post was edited on 10/26/19 at 10:11 pm
Posted by Gatorbait2008
Member since Aug 2015
22953 posts
Posted on 10/27/19 at 8:24 am to
I'm still very confident. Usually it goes in and out between confident and wary or worried. Really haven't had that. I could be delusional and our run defense could be exposed hard by them sure..but if our ends are back I think those big outside runs we've let happen lessen dramatically.

31-21 UF. Cant wait for Saturday
Posted by Jorts R Us
Member since Aug 2013
14806 posts
Posted on 10/27/19 at 8:45 am to
quote:

If we press them in man,


This this this
Posted by boXerrumble
Member since Sep 2011
52279 posts
Posted on 10/27/19 at 11:04 am to
SOS:

UF - 6th
UGA - 30th

SOR:

UF - 5th
UGA - 16th

SP+ Overall:

UF - 13th
UGA - 6th

SP+ Offense:

UF - 19th
UGA - 11th

SP+ Defense:

UF - 17th
UGA - 4th

SP+ Special Teams:

UF - 10th
UGA - 4th
Posted by StrawsDrawnAtRandom
Member since Sep 2013
21146 posts
Posted on 10/27/19 at 1:33 pm to
Missouri's SP+ was 11th in the country a few weeks ago.

I think it's a better system when looked at much later in the season -- in the 10th - 12th game. I don't think Georgia is anywhere close to being a top ten team and I think there are tons of teams that could manhandle them.
Posted by tjv305
Member since May 2015
12511 posts
Posted on 10/27/19 at 1:49 pm to
Georgia is a 6 point favorite . Seems like easy money if you really think that we win by 14.
Posted by StrawsDrawnAtRandom
Member since Sep 2013
21146 posts
Posted on 10/27/19 at 2:24 pm to
I'm confident in the Gators right now. We've had several real games against very good teams, Georgia hasn't played a tough team all year but still managed to lose a game to South Carolina.

Watching SCAR get outgunned by Tennessee was not good.

Watching Notre Dame get its brains beat in by Michigan was not good.

Not saying those games will determine what happen in our game -- we could have four bad luck turnovers, mental mistakes can obviously happen.

But there is no reason Georgia should be ranked ahead of Florida or the favorites considering who we have played and how we have looked every week. We look better every game, Georgia went into the bye week with 35 yards of passing total vs. a Kentucky team that had a literal Wide Receiver as Quarterback.

Also, you seem pretty salty we're doing well.
This post was edited on 10/27/19 at 2:40 pm
Posted by Gatorbait2008
Member since Aug 2015
22953 posts
Posted on 10/28/19 at 10:38 am to
Metrics like Georgia, but if Trask had played vs Miami and UK the metrics would likely favor us. He has a top ten QBR for a reason. They also won't account for the major injuries we've had. Zuniga, Greenard, Henderson, Toney, etc. All those guys will be back for Georgia. First full health game Trask has had with the team. I expect a very strong showing.
Posted by StrawsDrawnAtRandom
Member since Sep 2013
21146 posts
Posted on 10/28/19 at 12:53 pm to
quote:

Metrics like Georgia, but if Trask had played vs Miami and UK the metrics would likely favor us. He has a top ten QBR for a reason. They also won't account for the major injuries we've had. Zuniga, Greenard, Henderson, Toney, etc. All those guys will be back for Georgia. First full health game Trask has had with the team. I expect a very strong showing.


Yes, in the raw stats department it does make a lot of sense but in the: Who have the teams played department? It favors us. You don't want to play your first really tough game 7 or 8 games into the season when the other team has already faced a few difficult games.

Similarly, Mullen kind of played around a lot in the games like Tennessee because we were readjusting our entire offense to fit more to Trask's style of play. I think a bigger problem for Georgia is it looks like teams have figured out what to do against their offense, rather than it's just been unproductive.

If Mullen had the talent that Kirby had and looked the way Georgia did, we would all be a lot more worried about our team than we would like to admit. I really, really like our chances as long as we play a clean game.

They won't have McWilliams to throw on every single down this year.
Posted by dbuchanon
Member since Nov 2014
19837 posts
Posted on 10/28/19 at 1:49 pm to
quote:

They won't have McWilliams to throw on every single down this year.

THIS
Posted by Gatorbait2008
Member since Aug 2015
22953 posts
Posted on 10/28/19 at 4:23 pm to
Hopefully we don't have Dean on an elite receiver either though. He just doesn't look great this year so far sadly.

Also Cager is reportedly practicing again. He is their legit threat when healthy so that will be a tough cover if someone besides Henderson is on him. Really wish we would just stick Henderson on the best receiver all freaking game and say "beat him" but we don't.
Posted by dbuchanon
Member since Nov 2014
19837 posts
Posted on 10/28/19 at 4:51 pm to
Im actually hoping we have Burney at the Star for this game. Puts him Miller and Reese on the field at the same time against the run
Posted by StrawsDrawnAtRandom
Member since Sep 2013
21146 posts
Posted on 10/28/19 at 5:24 pm to
They really don't have "elite" receivers, they have decent to good but they've had trouble against lesser teams already. I don't think I would trade a single one of their receivers for any of ours in rotation right now. Even Copeland is starting to really come along.
Posted by Gatorbait2008
Member since Aug 2015
22953 posts
Posted on 10/28/19 at 6:27 pm to
Agreed. I think Dean needs to move to safety for us. Just think it's better suited to his skill set. I know it's hard with depth right now, but do it next year.

Also where has Elam and Kimbrough been? Haven't seen them as much, or maybe haven't paid attention it's hard to spot the corners on tv cause of how they angle it.
Posted by StrawsDrawnAtRandom
Member since Sep 2013
21146 posts
Posted on 10/28/19 at 7:36 pm to
Dean's actually a really natural outside corner, too, for his length. The problem he has is his inside mobility just isn't there yet. I think they should actually try switching Wilson who has vastly improved his tackling from week one. He's had several stone cold tackles and has shown he has that extra mobility that Dean seems to lack on the inside.

Either way, they need to do something a little different because we have to jam their receivers every single down to make sure Fromm doesn't have the time to throw.
Posted by Gatorbait2008
Member since Aug 2015
22953 posts
Posted on 10/28/19 at 8:37 pm to
We need to try and predict that come back back shoulder he loves to throw to Cager if Cager is in. It is their go to play on third and long and they use it often. I think taking a risk on it and having the defender look back at about 12-15 yards out would pay off. Just slight hands on Cager to know he doesnt stop and look back. So if Fromm throws it you are ready. It's not easy but it can be done.
Posted by real_gator8
Redington Shores
Member since Mar 2019
961 posts
Posted on 10/28/19 at 9:02 pm to
I feel the biggest advantage we have is the total lack of experience at WR for Jawja...they cant get separation from DBs and the formula USCe used was simple...stack the box with seven or eight men and force Fromm to try to beat them. He will be sacked four times at least doing that with WRs not getting open.

Jawja will try to get quick passes off and keep Fromm upright. Swift is dangerous and we just have to contain him cause he will get his. If Jawja cant run well it spells doom for the butt lickers.
Posted by boXerrumble
Member since Sep 2011
52279 posts
Posted on 10/30/19 at 9:34 am to
Posted this on the Rant (long read...), but certainly paints a different light on the UGA defense when considering the competition:

The intent of this thread is to try to have legitimate football discussion amungst the parade of LSU-Bama threads. UGA fans all offseason loved to talk about statistics too, so I thought I would dive into a few here.

UGA's defense is mighty impressive, both in the front 7 and in the secondary, and it just might be the best defense in the SEC overall, although I would certainly sy Auburn has a legit argument here as well. UGA's defense is currently 4th in SP+ which is first in the SEC. But taking a closer look at the opposition seems to show a few things:

SP+ Offenses of UGA's opponents (Arkansas State and Murray ST excluded):

Vanderbilt - 89
Notre Dame - 22
Tennessee - 79
South Carolina - 69
Kentucky - 80

Looking more closely at SEC opponents...

Vanderbilt, Kentucky, and Tennessee currently rank as the 12th, 13th, and 14th best offenses in the SEC in terms of yards per game. South Carolina is 9th.

In terms of yards per play...

Vanderbilt - 96th (5.0 YPP)
Tennessee - 81st (5.3 YPP)
South Carolina - 109th (4.7 YPP)
Kentucky - 79th (5.3 YPP)

Passing Offense:

Vanderbilt - 90th (208 YPG)
Tennessee - 74th (221 YPG)
South Carolina - 82nd (215 YPG)
Kentucky - 116th (154 YPG)

The best passing offense UGA has played thus far is Notre Dame. Notre Dame is currently 44th (244 YPG).

Notre Dame passed for 275 YPG against UGA, roughly 30 yards above their average. Notre Dame also abandoned the run all together against UGA, only attempting 14 rushes for 46 yards. Their TE, considered one of the best in the country, Cole Kmet, had 9 catches for 108 yards and TD.

Also worthy of note, UGA faced backup QBs against Kentucky, Tennessee, and South Carolina for good portions of the game (in UK's case, the entire game against a WR playing QB).

Looking at UF's offense now (rated 19th in SP+), lets look at the SP+ defenses that UF has played (Towson and UT-Martin excluded):

Miami - 15th
Kentucky - 43rd
Tennessee - 34th
Auburn - 10th
LSU - 20th
South Carolina - 28th

Looking more closely at SEC opponents...

Yards Per Play (Defense):

Auburn - 20th (4.7 YPP)
LSU - 15th (4.5 YPP)
Kentucky - 62nd (5.5 YPP)
Tennessee - 58th (5.4 YPP)
South Carolina - 73rd (5.6 YPP)

Passing Defense (YPG)

Auburn - 72nd (237 YPG)
LSU - 49th (215 YPG)
Kentucky - 17th (181 YPG)
Tennessee - 74th (239 YPG)
South Carolina - 106th (273 YPG)

UF is currently 6th in total offense in the SEC (420 YPG), 3rd in passing offense (277 YPG), and 11th in rushing offense (142 YPG). In terms of YPP, UF is 48th at 5.8 YPP.

UF seems to have gone against much tougher competition to put up its statistics on offense than UGA has to put up its statistics on defense.

UF has not scored under 24 points on the year, and UGA has not given up more than 17 points all year. Will be interesting to see which trend breaks on Saturday.
Posted by StrawsDrawnAtRandom
Member since Sep 2013
21146 posts
Posted on 10/30/19 at 1:12 pm to
This is what gives me a lot of hope -- the fact that we've played a tougher schedule and have the same results. Also, having looked at Georgia's opponents you hit it right on the head. They've looked so dominant in the secondary because they've literally played two receivers at Quarterbacks in back to back weeks.

That being said, I really do think this is going to be a statement game. Everything that I've seen about Mullen is that his team especially gets up for games like this. Kentucky sort of derailed us last year, but this year is a whole different breed.

I really like our matchup with Pitts, who I think is going to have a career day unless they double cover him.
Posted by Gatorbait2008
Member since Aug 2015
22953 posts
Posted on 10/30/19 at 6:30 pm to
We will find their weakness. With as many weapons as we have(now featuring Toney)..you cant shut it down completely. All we need is similar to Auburn. A few big plays to hit and we are good. Georgia cant keep pace with them.
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