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Georgia Breakdown.

Posted on 10/21/19 at 4:26 am
Posted by StrawsDrawnAtRandom
Member since Sep 2013
21146 posts
Posted on 10/21/19 at 4:26 am
3 - 0 (Auburn, LSU and SCAR) so far on the season for my breakdowns.

SCAR

LSU

Auburn

Starting us off with the Quarterbacks as always.

Jake "The General" Fromm - We've seen him a lot and while he's had some amazing games, he seems to be struggling for the last two weeks. He is an excellent Quarterback and while he has struggled and had abysmal numbers, I don't think the majority of it is on his shoulders. I think it's somewhere in the middle. He has had a lot of fortune that the last few years the team could rush the ball and make his job a lot easier and now that it's not there, what I predicted years ago has finally happened.

I think he has a case of The Yips at the moment but he could easily overcome them in two weeks. Something is definitely off and it is likely more to blame on receivers than it is Fromm himself.

Kyle Trask - He struggled against South Carolina but ultimately finished with a career high of 4 touchdown passes with three of them coming in the 4th Quarter. And while he struggled, he performed much better than Fromm did despite facing a tougher team. (In fact, he outperformed Fromm in one quarter against Kentucky than Fromm did in the entire game against them last Saturday.)

I expect him to continue to improve and grow into the Quarterback we need to do special things.

-----

UGA's Offense: This team is a complete enigma at the moment. A big problem is that their offensive line seems to be, and this might draw some ire from UGA fans: Soft. They're just soft. They seem to lack the drive to make the rushes work and honestly if not for Swift being a grown man they might never move the ball (until Fromm gets out of his funk). Their OL is pedestrian, their RB is elite, their QB is struggling and their receivers are just not being taught good fundamentals + the playcalling is extremely unimaginative.

Really, I struggled to make it through their games because it was just the same thing over and over and over again. Against Kentucky they didn't have a single play on the Kentucky side of the field until late in the third quarter, and only because of a turnover. The worst part is that Kentucky hadn't completed a pass for that entire duration.

I know rain changes the game, but we had no problem posting 335 yards on South Carolina in the same rain Georgia was playing in on the road. Georgia was at home and only managed 279 yards (a stunningly terrible 35 passing yards) against a Kentucky team using a literal wide receiver at Quarterback.

Absolutely horrendous showing.

Florida's Offense: While we now have a running game, our entire offense continues to make passes from the arm of Trask. Our offensive line play is improving but no where near where we need it to be to win anything of merit. I am still perfectly content with giving Trask 90% of the snaps and only using Emory as a quick change up, but at this time our identity is established -- we are a pass first offense. We still need to work on run blocking and I am still calling for more creative run plays to get our playmakers the ball.

-----

UGA's Defense: They are very fortunate to have faced two really bad Quarterbacks the last two weeks, even though South Carolina beat them. For a game and a half, they were playing against a WR at QB. Their worst position (ironically) is their DB corps but I think it's more of a schematic problem than it is a talent/experience problem. Kirby seems to run zone a lot and his DL/LBs don't seem to get to the Quarterback very often despite having superior talent. It's an extremely basic defense that plays directly into our strengths and honestly reminds me a lot of Auburn's.

They seem to leave the center of the field open and struggle defending against Tight Ends. Pitts will likely have a very good game unless the SEC Refs allow defensive holding again.

Florida's Defense: Jekyll and Hyde so far. We're struggling with everything without Greenard and Zuniga and they are clearly the most important pieces of all. A lot of people pointed out that South Carolina had a lot of yards against us without realizing that a large chunk came from playing against an extremely soft zone.

Pre 38 - 20 Yardage Allowed: 258 (We permitted 129 yards after we went up by three scores.)

I expect us to be able to shut down the run as long as Greenard and Zuniga are back. If not, this might get really ugly and turn into a shootout.

-----

Prediction:

Pessimistic: Once again, our defense fails to stop a team's passing Quarterback. Fromm recognizes our coverage very easily and picks us apart and moves it down the field until Swift can just run against us at will. On the other side of the ball, we have several unlucky breaks as our OL struggles to run block and our one-dimensional offense is picked off or a few fumbles are forced.

31 - 24 Georgia.

Optimistic: Greenard and Zuniga are back and as usual wreak havoc. Fromm is forced to win the game passing and makes several mistakes due to the pressure. Their receivers can't get enough separation in time and the Georgia offense is completely stalled and we blow the doors off of Georgia.

42 - 14 Florida.

Realistic: We get one of Greenard and Zuniga back and it makes enough of a difference to enable us to at least stop the bleeding from Georgia's running game. We're able to shut down their receivers but they are somewhat effective on the ground which keeps the game closer than normal. On the other side of the ball, I think we have success throwing the ball but waste downs trying conventional runs that can either make or break the game. However, I think Mullen has been thinking about this one for a long time and the team pulls away in the 4th Quarter.

31 - 17 Gators.

-----

UGA Weaknesses: Offensive Line, Pass Defense.

Florida Weaknesses: Offensive Line, Pass + Rush Defense.

Addendum: This is the first game where I think my pick might be wrong, and while I believe we have to beat them before I can pick us -- they have been playing very badly for the last few weeks. I think these two weeks will benefit them, but I also think that their problems are like our problems with the Offensive Line:

Too difficult to fix in the season.

They have a serious issue with motivation, and I'm not sure they can overcome it quite yet. We will have to see during the game, obviously, but only managing 35 yards of passing against Kentucky in 4 quarters when Kentucky is playing a WR at QB is not a good sign for them.
Posted by boXerrumble
Member since Sep 2011
52279 posts
Posted on 10/21/19 at 7:49 am to
I think UGA actually got it's first offensive play in UK territory off a bad punt.

Their second TD drive was on a short field because of the INT.

I feel really confident about this game.

The run game is showing more and more life lately, and Trask has shown an ability to bounce back from mistakes.

I think UGA will give us some problems with their run game, but I think UF does what UGA did in Jacksonville last year and pulls away in the 4th Q.

I agree with your scoreish, but I'll go a little higher.

UF 34
UGA 24
Posted by Gatorbait2008
Member since Aug 2015
22953 posts
Posted on 10/21/19 at 8:50 am to
I'm with you on this. I got 31-21. I know some will hesitate or think we are just being homer...but I just think we are the better team and there won't be "drop off" like we have verse lesser teams at times. Georgia just does not scare me. Maybe they figure it out in the bye week, and if they do that could be scary. I just don't think their staff has that in them.
Posted by UFMatt
Gator Nation - Everywhere
Member since Oct 2010
11424 posts
Posted on 10/21/19 at 9:01 am to
IF!!! The Gators stop the run, UF wins this game easily.

This game is all about the front 7 on Defense.

The Gators have proven that with Trask, they will move the ball and score points on anybody.

UF has better coaches, better special teams.

Stop the run and I predict a 31-17 Gator win.
Posted by Bbobalou
Where the action is.
Member since Oct 2012
5105 posts
Posted on 10/21/19 at 9:10 am to
I like the analysis overall. We both seem to be in a jekyll and hyde type mode. Which one shows up for both teams will make the difference.

I’m pulling up to a job and will add more later.
Posted by Gatorbait2008
Member since Aug 2015
22953 posts
Posted on 10/21/19 at 9:35 am to
Georgia has played the second easiest schedule in the SEC behind Bama. They have literally played the three worst teams in the East so far and no Western teams.

UF has faced the better of those three, and two elite West teams.

We have the same record. They did beat ND, but ND plays kind of perfectly into the Georgia game plan as well. ND could be a paper tiger they haven't really played a great team outside of Georgia.

Georgia has so much recruiting talent, but it's not nearly what it should be on the field. Their pass rush is lacking, their secondary is good but certainly not an elite secondary. They stuff the run well but like Auburn...we suck at running anyways so it won't bother us that much all teams can stuff our run game.

Their offense is all based on check downs and runs. If we play soft zone again I'm going to lose my fricking mind on Grantham. Literally all we need to do to stop their offense is man up and press their receivers and they can not break open. That's it. Then us Burney and Dean to spy Swift out of the backfield because Fromm loves to check down 20 times a game.

Load the box. Press the receivers in man. Game over.

Now let's see if we actually do that...or if we go back to man/zone bullshite that has not worked all year.
Posted by StrawsDrawnAtRandom
Member since Sep 2013
21146 posts
Posted on 10/21/19 at 11:38 am to
quote:

I think UGA actually got it's first offensive play in UK territory off a bad punt. boXerrumble


You're right about the punt and like I said: I was bored to tears watching the game and so that's my excuse. (They had a fumble right after that gave them another short field as you pointed out.)

Their first play in Kentucky territory at home was at the 6:20 mark in the third quarter. That's...really bad.

I also love that Trask can have a bad game but come through exactly when needed, regardless of how bad the game is going. We haven't had that stability at the position for a long time now. Guy literally has the memory (and attitude) of a goldfish.

quote:

I'm with you on this. I got 31-21. I know some will hesitate or think we are just being homer...but I just think we are the better team and there won't be "drop off" like we have verse lesser teams at times. Georgia just does not scare me. Maybe they figure it out in the bye week, and if they do that could be scary. I just don't think their staff has that in them. Gatorbait2008


I'm definitely not homering but if Greenard and Zuniga come back I just don't think Georgia has the creativity to actually beat us with that offense. We are much better than SCAR and Kentucky at all phases of the game, and so it will be interesting to find out what happens.

I also kind of touched on that -- fixing playcalling that's been plaguing them all year in two weeks is the same as us fixing our offensive line when it's just been terrible all year at run blocking. I don't think either team can effectively correct how profound those problems are, it's simply who these teams are at the moment.

quote:

IF!!! The Gators stop the run, UF wins this game easily. UFMatt


I agree to some extent but our worst game defensively was Joe Burrow. However, and this is a huge however: I don't think that Burrow is better than Fromm, I just think Burrow's receivers and coaching are miles ahead of what Fromm is working with right now. It is a much more complicated offense than what Fromm is working with.

The Muschamp blueprint worked very well -- bend but don't break.

quote:

I like the analysis overall. We both seem to be in a jekyll and hyde type mode. Which one shows up for both teams will make the difference. Bbobalou


I think the biggest difference is that they're having the worst position to be unpredictable -- Quarterback. With our defense they've really only had one atrocious game and that was against LSU in Death Valley at night. Fromm has had two...pretty terrible games.

Both at home.

SCAR: 28/51, 295 Yards, 1 Touchdown/3 Interceptions

TUCKY: 9/12, 35 Yards, 0 Touchdowns/0 Interceptions

Kyle Trask's last two games:

LSU: 23/39, 319 yards, 3 Tuchdowns/1 Interception (split snaps with Emory)

SCAR: 21/33, 200 Yards, 4 Touchdowns/1 Interception

We played as the away team for both of those games, too. And the idea that "weather was a factor" for Fromm? It clearly wasn't a huge issue for Trask to overcome.

quote:

Georgia has played the second easiest schedule in the SEC behind Bama. They have literally played the three worst teams in the East so far and no Western teams.

Load the box. Press the receivers in man. Game over. Gatorbait2008


To the first part: Yep. I think a big reason that they're so criminally overrated is because that they've been living off of their reputation rather than their deeds this year. They struggled with Tennessee in the first half, too, who we handled without even really breaking a sweat.

The second part is completely true. I don't think Fromm is the problem, again, I think their receivers don't get separation so if we can just jam them at the line and get them to start losing their faith early in the game we might be able to open it up.
Posted by Gatorbait2008
Member since Aug 2015
22953 posts
Posted on 10/21/19 at 12:32 pm to
Fromm was very off vs USCe. He missed wide open players and was off target for a lot of the game.

He seems to get rattled very easy. I'd bet it has so much to do with Smart's conservationism kind of leeching onto Fromm. He doesn't seem to handle making a mistake well and let's it snow ball on him quickly. If we can get in his head early...he will go full retard the entire game. If he gets on a roll, he becomes pretty hard to stop. Just need to set the tone early and we should be fine.
Posted by StrawsDrawnAtRandom
Member since Sep 2013
21146 posts
Posted on 10/21/19 at 12:45 pm to
I personally don't think it's Fromm and blame more the OC/Scheme than him -- although this is exactly what I said would happen when they didn't have a dominant run game. They didn't have a single snap in Kentucky territory until 6:20 left in the third quarter, which is horrendous, even with the rain.

I feel like Fromm is playing in a very vanilla scheme that teams aren't afraid to challenge and that his receivers aren't good enough to let him do what he does best: Throw into one on one coverage.

Before he just had to read where the one on one was, toss it and hope his guy comes down with it. Now with the lack of experience, these guys aren't giving him the same benefit of a doubt.

Georgia fans will be very upset by me saying this but: He wasted his talent going to a place that couldn't develop him further. He is a natural, a fantastic player, under no circumstances should a guy with that much experience and raw, natural talent throw for 35 yards against a team like Kentucky.

No circumstances, no excuses, that is just abysmal.
Posted by WG_Dawg
Hoover
Member since Jun 2004
86432 posts
Posted on 10/21/19 at 1:16 pm to
The book on us at the moment is the exact opposite of our 2013 squad; elite defense with practically no offense. One thing that continues to get overlooked about our already good defense is that our #2 CB hasn't played since week 2. In his place we've had to play a first year JUCO guy that has been serviceable but not great by any means. I think our CB slot is going to ramp up a notch when he comes back.

The offense...yeesh. I don't know what to say really. People want to say "but they recruit all these 5* they have the talent" but that is not realy the case at WR. And if you have zero receiving threat, it's easy to put 9 in the box which is what's happened the last few weeks. We lost our top 5 pass catchers from last year, and our #1 target this year (miami transfer cager) is injured and TBD for jax. At WR we're trotting out a senior who sucks and can't catch (simmons), a tall skinny guy that can't do anythign (landers, alhtough he's been playing less and less), Demetris Robertson who is good, Pickens who is good but a true freshman, and dom blaylock who is a TFr that will eventually be really good but still learning at the moment. However, the biggest problem is kirby's offensive philosophy which is basically the same as bama's from 08-013ish. Not only do we not really have the horses to open it up passing-wise, we have no desire to either! I just hope the bye week will give us time to figure some things out. If yall stop the run, we don't have a chance.

quote:

They have literally played the three worst teams in the East so far


I don't really understand this comment. We've played 4 teams from the east and can't play ourselves, so you're basically jsut saying "they haven't played UF or Mizz yet"...which can also be said for you guys with us and mizz.

Posted by Gatorbait2008
Member since Aug 2015
22953 posts
Posted on 10/21/19 at 1:45 pm to
How do you not understand it? You haven't played a West team yet. We've played two...and two of the three best.

You have 4 SEC games...and vs the four worst teams in the East. Yet are 3-1 with the toughest part of your schedule ahead of you. Florida just survived a brutal three game stretch and finished 2-1. I'd argue Florida is more tested, and has looked better vs like opponents in Tenn and USCe. UK it's ridiculous to compare because of the weather and UK had a WR playing QB who couldn't throw a forward pass. USCe had a QB who couldn't pass the entire second half as well.

I think Georgia's defense is on par with Auburn's. Difference is you are better against the run on the line but lack quality pass rushers. Your secondary the corners are iffy but Reed is a damn good safety(his diving interception was fricking amazing).

The question not only is can UGA fix their offense to beat Florida. But can they then go three straight weeks after that vs Missouri, Auburn, and Aggie? I highly, highly doubt it. Not with how much you struggled vs your first stretch of significantly easier games.
Posted by olemc999
At a blackjack table
Member since Oct 2010
13255 posts
Posted on 10/21/19 at 1:47 pm to
After watching that UK game; I noticed that y’all really don’t have a tightend this year. Got some ex -vol garbage and that’s about it. Nauta was really underrated in how important he was to that offense.
Posted by WG_Dawg
Hoover
Member since Jun 2004
86432 posts
Posted on 10/21/19 at 1:50 pm to
quote:

How do you not understand it? You haven't played a West team yet.
\

Understood, I wasn't speaking on that. My point was about the "they've played the 3 worst teams in the east" comment which is kind of an odd thing to say.

quote:

The question not only is can UGA fix their offense to beat Florida. But can they then go three straight weeks after that vs Missouri, Auburn, and Aggie?


If we beat UF we are winning the east, considering we'd have to lose 2 of those 3 games you mentioned which isn't happening. MU has only played 2 games away from home all season and lost both, to friggin wyoming and vanderbilt. Color me unimpressed by them comign to athens. AU will be a war as always and I'm very concerned about that one. aTm also looks very unimpressive and, if you can even belive it, will have only played 2 away games by the time they play us in late november. 1 was a loss to clemson and one was a 7 point win over ole miss. Again, not really worried about them.

Posted by StrawsDrawnAtRandom
Member since Sep 2013
21146 posts
Posted on 10/21/19 at 2:37 pm to
After you guys lost to SCAR I don't think you can make a good argument that any game is a given after that. Even against Kentucky you guys are very, very fortunate they didn't have a Quarterback.

I'll also highlight that Gatorbait2008 was talking about this:

UF Opponents' SEC Record: 10 - 11 (Auburn's only loss is to Florida)

UGA Opponent's SEC Record: 5 - 13.

Georgia is simply not a very good team. Especially since you guys lost to one and didn't get a single point against the other until deep into the third quarter.
Posted by slayerxing
Gainesville
Member since Feb 2010
11045 posts
Posted on 10/21/19 at 3:33 pm to
This game is really simple.

If UF can stop the run, they will win.

Period, end of story.

That's the game. If UGA can run, they will win, and may even be able to win running away like last year.

The only x-factor there is turnovers.

UF Stopped Auburn's run but almost lost control of the game because of turnovers.

So outside of a 3-4 TO performance by UF, if they stop the run UGA is dead in the water. If they can't, game set match mutts.
Posted by real_gator8
Redington Shores
Member since Mar 2019
961 posts
Posted on 10/21/19 at 7:18 pm to
UGA does have OL talent and a top draft choice to boot. Its kept Fromm upright most of the time...but he hasn't faced a real defense with speed that can be in your face as soon as the hiked ball reaches him. Zuniga and Greenard will play and I hope do not reinjure an ankle.

WC I was of the opinion this past spring that UF would beat UGA and kept shouting it out, your lack of experience at WR is damning and Fromm will have to wait on separation too long and be forced into bad throws/sacks. I worry some about Swift, but if you have followed our games we start out slow and sometimes give up big plays early....but as the game progresses, we will get stronger and wear teams down. It is kinda maddening for a lot of Gator fans, but not me. I am physically unable to attend games and have to bunker down in fam room with big screen and wear lucky visor/Gator gym shorts and Gator polo shirt.

Honestly if you are up 10 points in the third qt, Mullen and team will yell "we got em where we want em now!"
Posted by DeboseKnows
Gainesville
Member since Dec 2012
1721 posts
Posted on 10/21/19 at 7:39 pm to
hell I could be 1,000-0 on predictions when I give 3 different ones per game lmao.
Posted by StrawsDrawnAtRandom
Member since Sep 2013
21146 posts
Posted on 10/21/19 at 9:33 pm to
quote:

hell I could be 1,000-0 on predictions when I give 3 different ones per game lmao.


Predicted Auburn as a win, in the LSU game I said it was likely our first loss and predicted a win against SCAR. The Realistic Prediction is obviously the one to pay attention to.

The other two are reasons to expect blowouts or just poor showings from our team.
Posted by LuciusSulla
Oxford, MS
Member since Nov 2010
2703 posts
Posted on 10/21/19 at 11:45 pm to
I was at the Ole Miss/aTm game this weekend, and they aren’t good. If Ole Miss had anyone on the coaching staff that was just competent at offense, that game would have been 21-3 at the half. I think UGA is going to win that one pretty easily.
Posted by StrawsDrawnAtRandom
Member since Sep 2013
21146 posts
Posted on 10/22/19 at 12:11 am to
If they can't get onto Kentucky's half of the field before 6:20 left to go in the Third Quarter I'm not sure Georgia can say they are a surefire win against anyone at the moment.

Kentucky literally started a Wide Receiver at Quarterback and Fromm had 35 passing yards.
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