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re: Arkansas 2020 is Arkansas 2019 with a better turnover margin
Posted on 10/19/20 at 12:29 am to Slackaveli
Posted on 10/19/20 at 12:29 am to Slackaveli
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two 5* QBs coached by The Pirate and Joey Freshwater?
Ole Miss:
Matt Corral: 4 star
John Rhys Plumlee: 4 star
Mississippi State:
K.J. Costello: 4 star
Please show me the 5-star QB.
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Mond will give us 3 turnovers
Mond has committed 4 turnovers the entire season.
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Posted on 10/19/20 at 12:32 am to CGSC Lobotomy
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Mond has committed 4 turnovers the entire season.
Corral sextupled his number of interceptions
Posted on 10/19/20 at 12:55 am to Roger Klarvin
Even if Arkansas is actually only marginally improved from 2019, every other team has somehow gotten THAT much fricking worse, apparently. We were beating Georgia until midway through the third quarter. We beat MSU, lost to Auburn on a ref screwjob, and then beat OM. This was not even in the realm of possible last year. I'm sorry we took a step forward and every other team inexplicably took ten steps back? That's not our fault any more than Bobby Petrino getting fired is their fault. shite happens and we're better for it rather than worse for once.
This season was never about being "back." You don't just do that after going 4–8, 2–10, and 2–10. It was about taking a big enough stride to compete again, which we've been doing in spades.
Also:
We may have needed most of the turnovers, but Lane went for it on fourth like nine fricking times. Getting those stops can only be attributed to good defense. I mean, that's what they're there for. You can't blame everything that goes right for us on luck, or it diminishes the credibility of your argument. Our defense deserves some credit.
This season was never about being "back." You don't just do that after going 4–8, 2–10, and 2–10. It was about taking a big enough stride to compete again, which we've been doing in spades.
Also:
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They needed EVERY ONE of those 7 turnovers (and 4 failed 4th down conversions) against OM.
We may have needed most of the turnovers, but Lane went for it on fourth like nine fricking times. Getting those stops can only be attributed to good defense. I mean, that's what they're there for. You can't blame everything that goes right for us on luck, or it diminishes the credibility of your argument. Our defense deserves some credit.
Posted on 10/19/20 at 1:16 am to VagueMessage
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We were beating Georgia until midway through the third quarter.
Georgia did whatever they wanted after putting Bennett in at QB and finished the game on a 32-0 run. Arkansas was just there that day until Georgia decided to play football, even before the game got out of hand the offense did next to nothing and the defense just watched incompletions and caught balls thrown right to them.
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We beat MSU
Barely, and like the OM game largely because of numerous missed chances by State deep into Arkansas territory. Arkansas was thoroughly outplayed by State and lost every statistical category but turnovers.
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lost to Auburn on a ref screwjob
After they had already gotten into position to kick the game winning FG that they attempted the very next play. It was a bad call but let’s be honest, you’d have won on a fluke technicality. That call had nothing to do with skill or the game in general and Arkansas did nothing to force it. The better team won, bad call aside.
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This was not even in the realm of possible last year.
With a +5 turnover margin in every game Arkansas would have finished 9-3 last year, which is both a testament to how absurd and fluky that margin and how awful Arkansas was that they still would have lost three games with that margin.
The point is the OM game was such an outlier that Arkansas could literally beat ANYONE in a game like that. You should beat Clemson by multiple scores if they turn it over 7 times. And you STILL ALMOST LOST THE GAME TO OLE MISS
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but Lane went for it on fourth like nine fricking times. Getting those stops can only be attributed to good defense.
Two of the failed 4th downs were wide open drops.
And if he’d just kicked the 4 field goals he could have instead of failing on 4th down they’d have won even WITH 7 turnovers
Lane Kiffin’s stance on field goals is the reason we aren’t talking about an all time statistical unicorn: Losing a home game despite your opponent turning it over 7 times.
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Our defense deserves some credit.
They are opportunistic, but the fact is 4 of the 7 turnovers were unforced (dropping the ball on the goal line fumble, and 3/6 picks thrown right to virtually stationary defenders just in their zone without pressure on the QB). Against State, both INTs were unforced and the fumble was on a fourth down at the goal line where he was stopped anyway (and they should have kicked a FG).
The moral of the story is this: Arkansas is opportunistic and good in short yardage on defense, respectable in pass defense, but statistically poor at almost everything else. Run the ball, don’t push it downfield when they’re dropping 7-8, take your field goals and limit your turnovers. You will win because Arkansas can’t generate enough offense organically to beat you.
Georgia in the second half and Auburn in the first quarter and half stuck to this model and outscored Arkansas a combined 49-0.
This post was edited on 10/19/20 at 1:24 am
Posted on 10/19/20 at 1:22 am to Roger Klarvin
My God, imagine being this delusional. I can't wait to beat A&M and then see this guy say, "but if you take away the 3 picks Mond threw, we actually won by 21" lol
Posted on 10/19/20 at 1:43 am to SiloamHog
Fisher has consistently shown he won’t put Mond in position to do that. He’s only had two multi-INT games in 30 starts under Jimbo, despite being a very average college QB most of the time. For better or worse he protects his QBs, sometimes to his detriment.
If Odom plays A&M like he has played...well, virtually everyone since his days at Mizzu, Mond may only throw the ball 15-20 times. ANY QB who throws it 40-50 times against that defense will throw multiple picks.
Auburn was up 17-0 and had nearly 200 yards of offense before Nix threw his 5th pass of the game. They were 80/20 run, then went nearly 50/50 pass the rest of the way. Had they continued to run it for 7+ YPC at an 80% clip like they were that game is a laugher. Similarly, once Georgia put Bennett in and went run/run/pass they dominated.
Arkansas right now isn’t generating nearly enough offense to beat teams without a lot of help, and if their defense doesn’t get the chance to generate that help they aren’t good enough (and the scheme doesn’t allow for them) to actually stop teams willing to take the 5-6 YPP Odom’s defense allows for hoping you’ll make a mistake.
Run the ball (and thereby limit turnovers), play defense and take the three rather than trying to beat their short yardage defense. When teams have used this tactic they’ve dominated Arkansas, and if MSU and OM decided to practice this on even a moderate scale Arkansas would be 0-4.
Odom is betting on you thinking you’re smarter than him. If you call his bluff and say thanks for the outmanned/undersized boxes and free 5 yards, going even back to his days at Mizzu, he gets gashed on the ground or panics and throws DBs blitzes at it for play action over the top. Patient OCs are his kryptonite.
If Odom plays A&M like he has played...well, virtually everyone since his days at Mizzu, Mond may only throw the ball 15-20 times. ANY QB who throws it 40-50 times against that defense will throw multiple picks.
Auburn was up 17-0 and had nearly 200 yards of offense before Nix threw his 5th pass of the game. They were 80/20 run, then went nearly 50/50 pass the rest of the way. Had they continued to run it for 7+ YPC at an 80% clip like they were that game is a laugher. Similarly, once Georgia put Bennett in and went run/run/pass they dominated.
Arkansas right now isn’t generating nearly enough offense to beat teams without a lot of help, and if their defense doesn’t get the chance to generate that help they aren’t good enough (and the scheme doesn’t allow for them) to actually stop teams willing to take the 5-6 YPP Odom’s defense allows for hoping you’ll make a mistake.
Run the ball (and thereby limit turnovers), play defense and take the three rather than trying to beat their short yardage defense. When teams have used this tactic they’ve dominated Arkansas, and if MSU and OM decided to practice this on even a moderate scale Arkansas would be 0-4.
Odom is betting on you thinking you’re smarter than him. If you call his bluff and say thanks for the outmanned/undersized boxes and free 5 yards, going even back to his days at Mizzu, he gets gashed on the ground or panics and throws DBs blitzes at it for play action over the top. Patient OCs are his kryptonite.
Posted on 10/19/20 at 2:08 am to Roger Klarvin
For the record, I think you actually make a good point with the turnover margin. We talk a lot of shite because it's fun and because frick you, but obviously we're not going to be landing 4+ interceptions per game the entire season, and we're really going to feel the difference in the games when we don't. My problem here is that this began with an objective look at how an almost surely fluky turnover margin has assisted us, and ended with a bunch of baseless conjecture that does nothing but show how you're incapable of being objective.
All of these things you said are dependent on the assumption of the opposing team playing a perfect or near perfect game, while Arkansas continues to play a nearly entirely flawed game. You don't get to talk about fourth down attempts as though they're all guaranteed. That's a calculated risk. You don't get to talk about missed FGs, QBs making poor decisions, coaches not adjusting, dropped passes, mental errors of all sorts, and decisions to not go for FGs. Because in this endeavor, you assume these attempts all would have worked out against our defense, and you assume that none of the similar mistakes Arkansas made would have worked out anyway.
It's a shame because it completely discredits a pretty good point, because you devolved into a bunch of mental gymnastics and one-sided, biased statistics cherry picked to make your argument look good. It's especially evident in the Auburn game. We don't get to talk about how a singular event in reffing flubs that led to an immediate rule change went against us? We don't get to talk about how if we hadn't missed the XP, we'd have been 31–30? Or that if we had missed the XP and not tried for two failed 2PC, it'd have been 30–30 and the end of the game would have been handled much differently? Funny how it's a different story when you talk about Auburn or Ole Miss. You're playing out a completely different version of every down of every game in your head, where everything melted down for Arkansas and came up gold for the other team, and then you're saying "well, I've ran the simulations, and you may be shocked to find Arkansas is actually not very good."
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Ole Miss and State just threw balls to defenders sitting in their zones in many cases.
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Franks was still trying to hold off OM because you couldn’t put a team away despite 11 combined turnovers/failed conversions.
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The two teams combined for 0 points on 6 specified drives inside the Arkansas 30, many of which were due to unforced errors, drops and penalties.
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Correct, a very anomalous game statistically. (when your own poor performance against Vanderbilt is brought up)
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Barely, and like the OM game largely because of numerous missed chances by State deep into Arkansas territory.
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After they had already gotten into position to kick the game winning FG that they attempted the very next play. It was a bad call but let’s be honest, you’d have won on a fluke technicality. That call had nothing to do with skill or the game in general and Arkansas did nothing to force it. The better team won, bad call aside.
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Two of the failed 4th downs were wide open drops.
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And if he’d just kicked the 4 field goals he could have instead of failing on 4th down they’d have won even WITH 7 turnovers
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Georgia in the second half and Auburn in the first quarter and half stuck to this model and outscored Arkansas a combined 49-0.
All of these things you said are dependent on the assumption of the opposing team playing a perfect or near perfect game, while Arkansas continues to play a nearly entirely flawed game. You don't get to talk about fourth down attempts as though they're all guaranteed. That's a calculated risk. You don't get to talk about missed FGs, QBs making poor decisions, coaches not adjusting, dropped passes, mental errors of all sorts, and decisions to not go for FGs. Because in this endeavor, you assume these attempts all would have worked out against our defense, and you assume that none of the similar mistakes Arkansas made would have worked out anyway.
It's a shame because it completely discredits a pretty good point, because you devolved into a bunch of mental gymnastics and one-sided, biased statistics cherry picked to make your argument look good. It's especially evident in the Auburn game. We don't get to talk about how a singular event in reffing flubs that led to an immediate rule change went against us? We don't get to talk about how if we hadn't missed the XP, we'd have been 31–30? Or that if we had missed the XP and not tried for two failed 2PC, it'd have been 30–30 and the end of the game would have been handled much differently? Funny how it's a different story when you talk about Auburn or Ole Miss. You're playing out a completely different version of every down of every game in your head, where everything melted down for Arkansas and came up gold for the other team, and then you're saying "well, I've ran the simulations, and you may be shocked to find Arkansas is actually not very good."
Posted on 10/19/20 at 2:22 am to Roger Klarvin
It sounds like 2020 Arkansas is 2012 Florida. That was a mediocre Muschamp led team that managed to get an 11-2 record by having one of the best turnover margins in the nation. That record and top 5 ranking was all a mirage. Their base incompetence at offense got them exposed during bowl season by Charlie fricking Strong of all people.
People thought Muschamp might be good. But the turnover margin went negative the next year and the wins stopped coming. They went 4-8, losing to GA Southern. It wasn't sustainable for Florida. I wonder if Pitboss and Arky can keep the magic going longer than Muschamp did?
People thought Muschamp might be good. But the turnover margin went negative the next year and the wins stopped coming. They went 4-8, losing to GA Southern. It wasn't sustainable for Florida. I wonder if Pitboss and Arky can keep the magic going longer than Muschamp did?
This post was edited on 10/19/20 at 2:27 am
Posted on 10/19/20 at 4:35 am to Roger Klarvin
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Roger Klarvin
Damn, bruh. You just got smacked down like a little bitch
Posted on 10/19/20 at 5:42 am to DawgHorns
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That was a mediocre Muschamp led team that managed to get an 11-2 record by having one of the best turnover margins in the nation.
I bet florida fans were so ashamed of that season and 11 wins once they found out that advanced stats said they were bad.
Posted on 10/19/20 at 5:45 am to admiralduckwad
Posted on 10/19/20 at 7:09 am to Porcine Human
This guy is attempting to calculate advanced stats, to find a sliver of an edge for his team, on a team who doesnt even come to town to 2 weeks, and claims hes not worried. 
Posted on 10/19/20 at 7:57 am to Roger Klarvin
So you’re saying that preparation and being in the right place defensively counts for nothing and we’ve won off of luck two times. Glad corral and Costello threw it right to us and our defense did nothing to cause any of them. Lucky us.
Posted on 10/19/20 at 8:04 am to Roger Klarvin
So they’re better at forcing turnovers due to better coaching and defensive scheme?
That’s how a good coach utilizes the same talent in a different way in order to win games. Arkansas is obviously better this year
That’s how a good coach utilizes the same talent in a different way in order to win games. Arkansas is obviously better this year
Posted on 10/19/20 at 8:07 am to Roger Klarvin
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Arkansas is 0-4 if State and Ole Miss has just one less turnover each,
You don’t know this. Arkansas stuffed us on 4th and short twice in the red zone as well which was just good defense
Posted on 10/19/20 at 8:14 am to Porcine Human
What do you expect from grown men who wear milk man costumes and grab each other’s nuts.
Posted on 10/19/20 at 8:34 am to Roger Klarvin
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When teams have used this tactic they’ve dominated Arkansas, and if MSU and OM decided to practice this on even a moderate scale Arkansas would be 0-4.
This line of reasoning doesn't make sense. It boils down to "if all of Arkansas' opponents played perfectly and didn't make any mistakes then Arkansas would be 0-4." Coaches and teams make mistakes. A&M might have an advantage but cheapening Arkansas' record when they're obviously much better prepared/coached than last year is asinine.
Posted on 10/19/20 at 8:34 am to Roger Klarvin
This is all true except we are actually tackling. And in place on defense.
Posted on 10/19/20 at 8:49 am to admiralduckwad
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I bet florida fans were so ashamed of that season and 11 wins once they found out that advanced stats said they were bad.
That was a good Florida team (projected record 9-4) that was elevated to a great record by a great TO margin. This Arkansas team is nowhere near as good as that Florida team.
And again, Florida average TO margin that year was around +1.3. Arkansas is averaging +3.5 in their two wins. The latter isn’t sustainable across an entire season.
Posted on 10/19/20 at 9:08 am to Roger Klarvin
The problem with your logic is you keep adding in "if's and buts" to only Arkansas. This is decent quality bait though. You will still lose by 20. Mond is gonna have the same type of day Coral did. You will get behind and have to throw and it will get ugly.
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