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Year by Year Decisions by the CFP Playoff Committee (updated)
Posted on 10/25/19 at 11:38 am
Posted on 10/25/19 at 11:38 am
It's quite apparent that most people still have no clue whatsoever how the committee operates so figured I'd post here as well. Below are the final 4 teams into the playoffs, the team that finished 5th, plus Notre Dame.
2014
1) Alabama 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to ole miss.
2) Oregon 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Arizona.
3) FSU 13-0. Conf champion.
4) Ohio State 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to VT
____________________________________
5) Baylor 11-1. Co-champ. Loss to WVU
ND: Nonfactor at 8-5
2015
1) Clemson 13-0. Conf champion.
2) Alabama 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to ole miss
3) Michigan State 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Nebraska.
4) Oklahoma 11-1. Conf champion. Los to Texas.
_____________________________________
5) Iowa 12-1. Non-champ. Loss to MSU in title game
ND: 10-2, losses to Clemson and Stanford. 8th in playoff rankings
2016
1) Alabama 13-0. Conf champion.
2)Clemson 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Pitt
3) Ohio State 11-1. Non-champ. Loss to Penn State.
4) Washington 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to USC.
________________________________________
5) Penn State 11-2. Conf champion. Loss to Pitt and Michigan
ND: Non factor
2017
1) Clemson 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Syracuse.
2) Oklahoma 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Iowa State.
3) UGA 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Auburn.
4) Alabama 11-1. Non-champ. Loss to Auburn.
________________________________________
5) Ohio State 11-2. Conf champion. Loss to Oklahoma and Iowa
ND: 10-3, losses to UGA, Miami, Stanford. 14th in playoff rankings
2018
1) Alabama 13-0. Conf champion.
2) Clemson 13-0. Conf champion.
3) Notre Dame 12-0.
4) Oklahoma 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Texas.
________________________________________________
5) UGA 11-2. Non-champ. Loss to LSU and Alabama in title game
2019
1) LSU 13-0. Conf champion.
2) Ohio State 13-0. Conf champion.
3) Clemson 13-0. Conf champion.
4) Oklahoma 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Kansas State.
________________________________________________
5) UGA 11-2. Non-champ. Loss to SC and LSU in title game
ND: 10-2, losses to UGA and Michigan. 15th in playoff rankings
With 5 Power Conferences and 4 playoff spots, obviously a conference is going to get left out each year. Here are those cases:
2014: Big 12 where Baylor and TCU were co-champions with 11-1 records. No title game.
2015: Pac 12 champ Stanford. 11-2 with losses to Northwestern and Oregon
2016: Big 12 champ Oklahoma. 10-2 with losses to Houston and Ohio State. No title game.
2017: Big 12 champ Ohio State. 11-2 with losses to Oklahoma and Iowa. Also the Pac12 champ USC. 11-2 with losses to Washington State and Notre Dame
2018: Big 10 champ Ohio State. 12-1 with loss to Purdue. Also Pac12 champ Washington. 10-3 with losses to Auburn, Oregon, and Cal.
2019: Pac12 champ Oregon. 11-2 with losses to Auburn and Arizona State.
This is a lot of data to go on but presents us with a pretty clear picture of how the committee operates:
-First, you almost surely need to win your conference. Of 24 playoff teams, only 2 of them made it without winning their conference (2016 Ohio State and 2017 alabama). 92% of teams to make the playoffs have won their conference.
-As a follow up to the point above, let’s look at why those 2 non-champs made it. ’16 OSU made it over #5 Penn State because they only had 1 loss compared to 2 for psu. Ditto for ’17 bama who made it over #5 OSU, also because OSU had 2 losses compared to just 1 for bama.
-If you don’t win your conference, you need a lot of help. Mainly in the way of the cases above where other conference winners have 2 losses.
-No team thus far has made the playoffs with more than 1 loss.
-Notre Dame, despite being a media darling or having special privileges, has only made the playoffs once and they went undefeated to do so. Even in a year with 2 losses (“good losses” at that) they did not finish in the top 7.
-The only P5 team to win their league's championship game and finish wiht less than 2 losses and NOT make the playoffs is Ohio state in 2018. They lost to a bad purdue team and were replaced in the playoffs by an also 12-1 P5 winner OU, whose only loss was to texas.
2014
1) Alabama 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to ole miss.
2) Oregon 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Arizona.
3) FSU 13-0. Conf champion.
4) Ohio State 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to VT
____________________________________
5) Baylor 11-1. Co-champ. Loss to WVU
ND: Nonfactor at 8-5
2015
1) Clemson 13-0. Conf champion.
2) Alabama 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to ole miss
3) Michigan State 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Nebraska.
4) Oklahoma 11-1. Conf champion. Los to Texas.
_____________________________________
5) Iowa 12-1. Non-champ. Loss to MSU in title game
ND: 10-2, losses to Clemson and Stanford. 8th in playoff rankings
2016
1) Alabama 13-0. Conf champion.
2)Clemson 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Pitt
3) Ohio State 11-1. Non-champ. Loss to Penn State.
4) Washington 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to USC.
________________________________________
5) Penn State 11-2. Conf champion. Loss to Pitt and Michigan
ND: Non factor
2017
1) Clemson 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Syracuse.
2) Oklahoma 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Iowa State.
3) UGA 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Auburn.
4) Alabama 11-1. Non-champ. Loss to Auburn.
________________________________________
5) Ohio State 11-2. Conf champion. Loss to Oklahoma and Iowa
ND: 10-3, losses to UGA, Miami, Stanford. 14th in playoff rankings
2018
1) Alabama 13-0. Conf champion.
2) Clemson 13-0. Conf champion.
3) Notre Dame 12-0.
4) Oklahoma 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Texas.
________________________________________________
5) UGA 11-2. Non-champ. Loss to LSU and Alabama in title game
2019
1) LSU 13-0. Conf champion.
2) Ohio State 13-0. Conf champion.
3) Clemson 13-0. Conf champion.
4) Oklahoma 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Kansas State.
________________________________________________
5) UGA 11-2. Non-champ. Loss to SC and LSU in title game
ND: 10-2, losses to UGA and Michigan. 15th in playoff rankings
With 5 Power Conferences and 4 playoff spots, obviously a conference is going to get left out each year. Here are those cases:
2014: Big 12 where Baylor and TCU were co-champions with 11-1 records. No title game.
2015: Pac 12 champ Stanford. 11-2 with losses to Northwestern and Oregon
2016: Big 12 champ Oklahoma. 10-2 with losses to Houston and Ohio State. No title game.
2017: Big 12 champ Ohio State. 11-2 with losses to Oklahoma and Iowa. Also the Pac12 champ USC. 11-2 with losses to Washington State and Notre Dame
2018: Big 10 champ Ohio State. 12-1 with loss to Purdue. Also Pac12 champ Washington. 10-3 with losses to Auburn, Oregon, and Cal.
2019: Pac12 champ Oregon. 11-2 with losses to Auburn and Arizona State.
This is a lot of data to go on but presents us with a pretty clear picture of how the committee operates:
-First, you almost surely need to win your conference. Of 24 playoff teams, only 2 of them made it without winning their conference (2016 Ohio State and 2017 alabama). 92% of teams to make the playoffs have won their conference.
-As a follow up to the point above, let’s look at why those 2 non-champs made it. ’16 OSU made it over #5 Penn State because they only had 1 loss compared to 2 for psu. Ditto for ’17 bama who made it over #5 OSU, also because OSU had 2 losses compared to just 1 for bama.
-If you don’t win your conference, you need a lot of help. Mainly in the way of the cases above where other conference winners have 2 losses.
-No team thus far has made the playoffs with more than 1 loss.
-Notre Dame, despite being a media darling or having special privileges, has only made the playoffs once and they went undefeated to do so. Even in a year with 2 losses (“good losses” at that) they did not finish in the top 7.
-The only P5 team to win their league's championship game and finish wiht less than 2 losses and NOT make the playoffs is Ohio state in 2018. They lost to a bad purdue team and were replaced in the playoffs by an also 12-1 P5 winner OU, whose only loss was to texas.
This post was edited on 12/8/19 at 2:31 pm
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Posted on 10/25/19 at 11:43 am to WG_Dawg
Yep
- Better go 11-1 or 12-0 and win your conference
- If you don't win your conference, you better hope your opposition for the #3/4 spot is a team with 2 losses
It's pretty simple
- Better go 11-1 or 12-0 and win your conference
- If you don't win your conference, you better hope your opposition for the #3/4 spot is a team with 2 losses
It's pretty simple
This post was edited on 10/25/19 at 11:45 am
Posted on 10/25/19 at 11:46 am to WG_Dawg
Damn there is a lot of Bama in those years.... a team seems to missing though, “we comin”
Posted on 10/25/19 at 11:47 am to WG_Dawg
5 years as a sample group.
We understand how the committee works, what you do not understand is how human nature works. You make a broad statement, about how things will happen, but even the exception to the BCS did not happen for 14 years.
Ultimately you have no idea if a conference champion could be jumped in the rankings by a 1-loss non-conference champion. Just because it has not happened, does not mean it will not happen.
"Past performance is no guarantee of future results"
We understand how the committee works, what you do not understand is how human nature works. You make a broad statement, about how things will happen, but even the exception to the BCS did not happen for 14 years.
Ultimately you have no idea if a conference champion could be jumped in the rankings by a 1-loss non-conference champion. Just because it has not happened, does not mean it will not happen.
"Past performance is no guarantee of future results"
Posted on 10/25/19 at 11:49 am to WG_Dawg
This is in response to a thread that posed a hypothetical that hasn't exactly happened, which is reasonable considering the small history of the CFP.
2015 is the closest; however, in that case, OU had the #2 SOS and Iowa had the #51 SOS. In the scenario presented in the other thread (12-1 conf champ Clemson and 11-1 non-champ Bama), those SOS rankings would be essentially flipped (assuming Clemson's loss is in the regular season). It would be interesting to see how that played into the final ranking.
2015 is the closest; however, in that case, OU had the #2 SOS and Iowa had the #51 SOS. In the scenario presented in the other thread (12-1 conf champ Clemson and 11-1 non-champ Bama), those SOS rankings would be essentially flipped (assuming Clemson's loss is in the regular season). It would be interesting to see how that played into the final ranking.
Posted on 10/25/19 at 12:06 pm to WG_Dawg
This is a great post.
However, I do disagree about there being scenarios that just haven't happened so far where 2 one loss teams from the same conference make it over a 1 loss conference champion.
I think the committee ranking a 2 loss Georgia over 1 loss conference champion Ohio St just last season was setting a precedent for that.
Agree with other posters that a schedule like Clemson has this year --with the potential to only have maybe 1 Top25 opponent all season -- could easily mean them taking a backseat to a team that finishes second in conference but has beaten a couple of Top10 teams during the season.
However, I do disagree about there being scenarios that just haven't happened so far where 2 one loss teams from the same conference make it over a 1 loss conference champion.
I think the committee ranking a 2 loss Georgia over 1 loss conference champion Ohio St just last season was setting a precedent for that.
Agree with other posters that a schedule like Clemson has this year --with the potential to only have maybe 1 Top25 opponent all season -- could easily mean them taking a backseat to a team that finishes second in conference but has beaten a couple of Top10 teams during the season.
Posted on 10/25/19 at 12:08 pm to WG_Dawg
Good post. Looks at decisions made with context. I like it.
Posted on 10/25/19 at 12:10 pm to WG_Dawg
quote:
2017 1) Clemson 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Syracuse. 2) Oklahoma 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Iowa State. 3) UGA 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Auburn. 4) Alabama 11-1. Non-champ. Loss to Auburn. ________________________________________ 5) Ohio State 11-2. Conf champion. Loss to Oklahoma and Iowa ND: 10-3, losses to UGA, Miami, Stanford. 14th in playoff rankings
Poor auburn
Posted on 10/25/19 at 12:26 pm to WG_Dawg
quote:
An 11-1 bama going over a 1 loss P5 champ would mean the committee has completely and totally deviated from every year they've picked thus far.
No it wouldn’t. It would mean they determined Bama unequivocally had a top 4 resume.
Posted on 10/25/19 at 12:28 pm to WG_Dawg
Let me clarify it for everyone:
Top 4 resumes get in. If there are teams with similar resumes but one has a conference championship and the other doesn’t, the conference champion will be ranked higher.
Top 4 resumes get in. If there are teams with similar resumes but one has a conference championship and the other doesn’t, the conference champion will be ranked higher.
Posted on 10/25/19 at 12:31 pm to WG_Dawg
quote:
-As a follow up to the point above, let’s look at why those 2 non-champs made it. ’16 OSU made it over #5 Penn State because they only had 1 loss compared to 2 for psu. Ditto for ’17 bama who made it over #5 OSU, also because OSU had 2 losses compared to just 1 for bama.
Important to remember that '16 OSU also made it because they had a signature win over big 12 champ Oklahoma in non-conf play. OSU had a marquee non-conf win that Penn State did not, and to just consider conference play is to only consider 75% of those teams' schedules.
People who say a 2-loss team won't make it over a 1-loss team should look at the penultimate rankings in 2017, when 2-loss Auburn was ranked no.2 because they had beated UGA and Bama back to back. They would have been in if they beat UGA and won the SECCG.
Posted on 10/25/19 at 2:16 pm to WG_Dawg
Good and sensible data & analysis...thanks, WG.
Posted on 10/25/19 at 4:09 pm to WG_Dawg
My only three take always from this thread are:
1. Pitt was a giant killer in 2016
2. You SEC crowd sure spend a lot of time convincing yourselves that a one Loss Clemson should be out of the CFP no matter what - makes you look scared.
ETA: 3. We’re still the reigning national champions.
1. Pitt was a giant killer in 2016
2. You SEC crowd sure spend a lot of time convincing yourselves that a one Loss Clemson should be out of the CFP no matter what - makes you look scared.
ETA: 3. We’re still the reigning national champions.
This post was edited on 10/25/19 at 4:16 pm
Posted on 10/27/19 at 11:00 am to WG_Dawg
Just a reminder to all the LSU and Alabama teams that think they can lose this upcoming game and still get in 
Posted on 12/8/19 at 2:32 pm to WG_Dawg
bump for 2019.
Once again, as usual, the committee has gotten it right. The 4th spot of the first year in 2014 is the only year you can make a legit gripe for their decision. Aside form that they've continued to be on point every season.
Once again, as usual, the committee has gotten it right. The 4th spot of the first year in 2014 is the only year you can make a legit gripe for their decision. Aside form that they've continued to be on point every season.
Posted on 12/9/19 at 10:44 am to WG_Dawg
I see a lot of "loss to Auburn" in all that. fricking inconsistent program. Breaks my heart all the time.
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