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Here we go again. BCS Doomsday looming...
Posted on 10/5/11 at 1:40 pm
Posted on 10/5/11 at 1:40 pm
5 Weeks into the season and trouble is brewing out on the horizon. The bowl game- playoff debate has gone on for about 7 seasons now, somewhat starting in 2003 with the LSU / USC Split National Championship game when Ted Waitt, CEO of Gateway Computers offered $31 million for LSU and USC to play in an extra game to determine the national champion. Sports Illustrated ran 2 different magazine covers declaring the natl champion, etc. Yes the debate started before this with other controversies, but this "split" national championship really got things going.
Ok, thats all for the history lesson. let's talk about the present and future.
Now, with all this conference realignment and the call for either 4 or 6 16-team super conferences. where you'd have a 6 or 8 team playoff this all makes good sense on paper. Obviously the reason why we haven't done this is because we have expanded the bowl games from 1 through the 1930s (Rose Bowl), to 5 bowl games in the 40s (Rose, Sugar, Cotton, Orange, Sun) to 32 bowl games today. Tons of corporate sponsors, all wanting a place to put their money. I'll let the big wigs sort out the money for all this stuff.
But here's whats brewing this year and why 2011 might be the straw that breaks the camels back and the playoff system
SEC:
Alabama or LSU go undefeated-through their conference championship game
13-0
BIG 12 (which has 10 teams)
Has 5 undefeated teams going into this weekend. Lets assume that Oklahoma runs the table. Big 12 doesn't have a conference championship game anymore.
Oklahoma goes 12-0
BIG 10 (which has 12 teams)
Michigan and Wisconsin are undefeated at end of season. Play each other in Big 10 Championship. Wisconsin Wins.
Wisconsin 13-0
PAC 12
Stanford is only undefeated team. the PAC 12 finally added a conference championship game with their recent expansion.
Stanford 13-0
ACC
Yes, the ACC. Clemson and Georgia Tech are both undefeated on their respective sides of their conference and play each other in the ACC Championship game. Lets assume Clemson
Clemson 13-0
BIG EAST-their best team lost - west virginia- you can thank lsu for that
MOUNTAIN WEST
here we go again, Boise St. runs the table. no conference championship game. they cry and cry to be considered, blah blah blah
Boise St. 12-0
CONFERENCE USA
Houston is undefeated, If Houston runs the table and has and wins their conference championship game. {If Boise St can cry, so can conference usa, even though houston will not have beaten one ranked team]
Houston 13-0
SO THE QUESTION IS:
What do you do with 7 undefeated teams, 5 from major conferences.
Does Oklahoma get jumped by Wisconsin, Stanford, and Clemson after championship weekend. We've seen how the BCS formula discounts teams for not having that extra game, such as USC in 2003. [Maybe a little conference to conference payback from the football lords] [LINK ] you can see the difference between 11/29/03 and 12/6/03 BCS results. LSU moved up to #2 in the polls, but why did they move to #2 in the polls. because there were only two 12-1 teams in the country and you have to rank them 1 and 2. Same could happen after championship weekend in 2011. Oklahoma watches everyone pass them as they sit at home.
The pre-bowl selection rankings might look like this.
1. LSU/Alabama 13-0
2. Wisconsin 13-0
3. Stanford 13-0
4. Clemson 13-0
5. Oklahoma 12-0
6. Boise St. 12-0
7. Houston 13-0 [no one knows if Houston will be ranked at all, if even this high, just stating that there is a conference winner that goes undefeated and will be crying to the media for a spot in the top 5 bowl games]
The 5 major conference presidents will be in an all out battle royal for the spot in the BCS National Championship Game. Especially since the BCS made the National Championship game its own game and not just a designation added to one of the 4 major bowl games. If they hadn't done this then we could have 3 bowl games [i.e. Sugar, Rose, Fiesta) with 3 winners undefeated and declaring themselves national champion - a 3 way split, which is controversy in itself but at least people get to pound their chest. So now, this year, we have to pick 2 out of the 6 teams, declare them contenders for the natl championship game and tell 4 others to shove it. Boise St obviously gets shut out for its lack of a conference championship game but poll voters might as well say, they'd just run over one of their pathetic opponents again anyway so might as well think of them as 13-0. All the conference presidents who sit around the head of the BCS will want a seat at the table of the national championship game. uproar ensues. congressman who feel that their alma mater got the shaft call for capitol hill to step in, etc, the earth stops spinning...[Other litigation would follow from other sources LINK ]
So the question remains....what do you do if we end the season with this.
1. LSU/Alabama 13-0 SEC
2. Wisconsin 13-0 BIG 10
3. Stanford 13-0 PAC 12
4. Clemson 13-0 ACC
5. Oklahoma 12-0 BIG 12
6. Boise St. 12-0 Mountain West
i know its early, but some food for thought.
can anyone say that its playoff time now?
The camels back is now broken.
Your thoughts?
Ok, thats all for the history lesson. let's talk about the present and future.
Now, with all this conference realignment and the call for either 4 or 6 16-team super conferences. where you'd have a 6 or 8 team playoff this all makes good sense on paper. Obviously the reason why we haven't done this is because we have expanded the bowl games from 1 through the 1930s (Rose Bowl), to 5 bowl games in the 40s (Rose, Sugar, Cotton, Orange, Sun) to 32 bowl games today. Tons of corporate sponsors, all wanting a place to put their money. I'll let the big wigs sort out the money for all this stuff.
But here's whats brewing this year and why 2011 might be the straw that breaks the camels back and the playoff system
SEC:
Alabama or LSU go undefeated-through their conference championship game
13-0
BIG 12 (which has 10 teams)
Has 5 undefeated teams going into this weekend. Lets assume that Oklahoma runs the table. Big 12 doesn't have a conference championship game anymore.
Oklahoma goes 12-0
BIG 10 (which has 12 teams)
Michigan and Wisconsin are undefeated at end of season. Play each other in Big 10 Championship. Wisconsin Wins.
Wisconsin 13-0
PAC 12
Stanford is only undefeated team. the PAC 12 finally added a conference championship game with their recent expansion.
Stanford 13-0
ACC
Yes, the ACC. Clemson and Georgia Tech are both undefeated on their respective sides of their conference and play each other in the ACC Championship game. Lets assume Clemson
Clemson 13-0
BIG EAST-their best team lost - west virginia- you can thank lsu for that
MOUNTAIN WEST
here we go again, Boise St. runs the table. no conference championship game. they cry and cry to be considered, blah blah blah
Boise St. 12-0
CONFERENCE USA
Houston is undefeated, If Houston runs the table and has and wins their conference championship game. {If Boise St can cry, so can conference usa, even though houston will not have beaten one ranked team]
Houston 13-0
SO THE QUESTION IS:
What do you do with 7 undefeated teams, 5 from major conferences.
Does Oklahoma get jumped by Wisconsin, Stanford, and Clemson after championship weekend. We've seen how the BCS formula discounts teams for not having that extra game, such as USC in 2003. [Maybe a little conference to conference payback from the football lords] [LINK ] you can see the difference between 11/29/03 and 12/6/03 BCS results. LSU moved up to #2 in the polls, but why did they move to #2 in the polls. because there were only two 12-1 teams in the country and you have to rank them 1 and 2. Same could happen after championship weekend in 2011. Oklahoma watches everyone pass them as they sit at home.
The pre-bowl selection rankings might look like this.
1. LSU/Alabama 13-0
2. Wisconsin 13-0
3. Stanford 13-0
4. Clemson 13-0
5. Oklahoma 12-0
6. Boise St. 12-0
7. Houston 13-0 [no one knows if Houston will be ranked at all, if even this high, just stating that there is a conference winner that goes undefeated and will be crying to the media for a spot in the top 5 bowl games]
The 5 major conference presidents will be in an all out battle royal for the spot in the BCS National Championship Game. Especially since the BCS made the National Championship game its own game and not just a designation added to one of the 4 major bowl games. If they hadn't done this then we could have 3 bowl games [i.e. Sugar, Rose, Fiesta) with 3 winners undefeated and declaring themselves national champion - a 3 way split, which is controversy in itself but at least people get to pound their chest. So now, this year, we have to pick 2 out of the 6 teams, declare them contenders for the natl championship game and tell 4 others to shove it. Boise St obviously gets shut out for its lack of a conference championship game but poll voters might as well say, they'd just run over one of their pathetic opponents again anyway so might as well think of them as 13-0. All the conference presidents who sit around the head of the BCS will want a seat at the table of the national championship game. uproar ensues. congressman who feel that their alma mater got the shaft call for capitol hill to step in, etc, the earth stops spinning...[Other litigation would follow from other sources LINK ]
So the question remains....what do you do if we end the season with this.
1. LSU/Alabama 13-0 SEC
2. Wisconsin 13-0 BIG 10
3. Stanford 13-0 PAC 12
4. Clemson 13-0 ACC
5. Oklahoma 12-0 BIG 12
6. Boise St. 12-0 Mountain West
i know its early, but some food for thought.
can anyone say that its playoff time now?
The camels back is now broken.
Your thoughts?
11
Posted on 10/5/11 at 1:42 pm to dpelle1
too early for this shite and it gets old year after year.
all the bcs needs is a plus 1. Also in years like last year it really didn't even need a plus one.
all the bcs needs is a plus 1. Also in years like last year it really didn't even need a plus one.
Posted on 10/5/11 at 1:43 pm to dpelle1
quote:
can anyone say that its playoff time now?
no
Posted on 10/5/11 at 1:43 pm to dpelle1
tl:did read
and I agree, this year is shaping up to be a clusterfrick for the ages. It has worked itself out in the past for the most part, but shits gonna hit the fan one of these years
and I agree, this year is shaping up to be a clusterfrick for the ages. It has worked itself out in the past for the most part, but shits gonna hit the fan one of these years
Posted on 10/5/11 at 1:44 pm to dpelle1
This post was edited on 10/5/11 at 1:45 pm
Posted on 10/5/11 at 1:48 pm to dpelle1
quote:
1. LSU/Alabama 13-0 SEC
Likely
quote:
2. Wisconsin 13-0 BIG 10
Maybe, but when has Wisconsin ever proven that they can do it big?
quote:
3. Stanford 13-0 PAC 12
Naw...Oregon beats Stanford
quote:
4. Clemson 13-0 ACC
not gonna happen quote:
5. Oklahoma 12-0 BIG 12
Maybe
quote:
6. Boise St. 12-0 Mountain West
who cares
There will only be 2 or 3 undefeated teams at year's end, if that. It always works itself out, and this year will be no different IMO.
It's Big12 champs vs SEC champ unless either of those champions blows it by losing a game.
This post was edited on 10/5/11 at 1:50 pm
Posted on 10/5/11 at 1:53 pm to dpelle1
quote:
Your thoughts?
Every year, we go through this process of wondering what will or should happen if more than two teams go undefeated, especially more than two from AQ conferences. Usually, it doesn't materialize because teams slip up, but eventually it will happen. This year is as likely as any other, and may even be more so with Wisconsin, Clemson and possibly Oklahoma and Stanford facing relatively easy roads to an undefeated finish (although I think Oregon will beat Stanford).
But it won't matter. Even if there are seven, as your scenario envisions, and even if all hell breaks loose over who should play in the NC game, and even if AP splits the title again, it won't change anything. The university presidents will never go to a playoff under any circumstances.
Posted on 10/5/11 at 1:53 pm to dpelle1
Great post. Thanks. A play off system is the answer, we all know that and it's inevitable. They just need to figure out the $$$, plain and simple.
Posted on 10/5/11 at 1:54 pm to heartbreakTiger
quote:
Also in years like last year it really didn't even need a plus one.
TCU had an argument last year as an undefeated team.
Posted on 10/5/11 at 1:57 pm to dpelle1
Okies would jump all but LSU/Bama winner, based on SOS.
The extra game wont matter. Who are the likely opponents for Wisc to get this magic lift of SOS you predict the big ten champ game to confer?
Mich and Mich State, I guess.
Okies lose to LSU in the champ game. 38-24.
Boise would be in the Sugar vs the SEC runnerup, Bama.
Wisc/Illinois winner would play Stanford/Oregon winner in the Rose bowl and both will be relieved that they dont have to get pants'd on national TV by the SEC champ. Oregon does not really think they would do any better vs LSU. Oregon gets best DB/KR back. LSU gets Shep, JJ and a now-confident JL.
Gt Clem winner play WV in the Orange. GT wins Orange, grateful to all that is holy that they did not have to play LSU on national tv again. 38-3. they remember when, as ACC #2 they played 7-5 LSU reeling from giving up 50 points and INTs vs UGA and Florida/Tebow.
7-5 LSU won, 38 to fricking 3.
Houston does not matter. low SOS they have no pretense to being invited to national champ game. If they want in, they can schedule Tex A&M and LSU for early season losses in 2012.
Boise will also have low SOS but having defeated the SEC east champ puts them into the Sugar vs LSU/Bama loser.
NOTE: Dont count on Oregon giving Stanford the Pac 14 championship just yet. I thought it was going to be a game last year, and Oregon ran away from them in the 4th quarter.
The extra game wont matter. Who are the likely opponents for Wisc to get this magic lift of SOS you predict the big ten champ game to confer?
Mich and Mich State, I guess.
Okies lose to LSU in the champ game. 38-24.
Boise would be in the Sugar vs the SEC runnerup, Bama.
Wisc/Illinois winner would play Stanford/Oregon winner in the Rose bowl and both will be relieved that they dont have to get pants'd on national TV by the SEC champ. Oregon does not really think they would do any better vs LSU. Oregon gets best DB/KR back. LSU gets Shep, JJ and a now-confident JL.
Gt Clem winner play WV in the Orange. GT wins Orange, grateful to all that is holy that they did not have to play LSU on national tv again. 38-3. they remember when, as ACC #2 they played 7-5 LSU reeling from giving up 50 points and INTs vs UGA and Florida/Tebow.
7-5 LSU won, 38 to fricking 3.
Houston does not matter. low SOS they have no pretense to being invited to national champ game. If they want in, they can schedule Tex A&M and LSU for early season losses in 2012.
Boise will also have low SOS but having defeated the SEC east champ puts them into the Sugar vs LSU/Bama loser.
NOTE: Dont count on Oregon giving Stanford the Pac 14 championship just yet. I thought it was going to be a game last year, and Oregon ran away from them in the 4th quarter.
This post was edited on 10/5/11 at 2:07 pm
Posted on 10/5/11 at 2:00 pm to JPLSU1981
quote:
It always works itself out, and this year will be no different IMO.
I believe this to be true, but imagine the delicious drama if we did end up with so many undefeated teams.
Posted on 10/5/11 at 2:02 pm to ottothewise
quote:
Okies would jump all but LSU/Bama winner, based on SOS.
Okies lose to LSU in the champ game. 38-24.
A foregone conclusion, no doubt.
Good luck this November.
This post was edited on 10/5/11 at 2:02 pm
Posted on 10/5/11 at 2:08 pm to cyde
quote:
A foregone conclusion, no doubt.
Good luck this November.
Gracias Bama.
Posted on 10/5/11 at 2:10 pm to dpelle1
My thoughts are whose alter are you?
Posted on 10/5/11 at 2:10 pm to dpelle1
quote:
Your thoughts?
tl;dr
But after skimming through, I doubt we see that many teams go undefeated. I feel that Wisconsin will run the table… maybe Stanford.
I think OU slips up against Texas or A&M or OSU.
Clemson going undefeated is actually pretty likely because they have already beaten the harder teams on their schedule. USCe is their last hard game that I can think of.
Posted on 10/5/11 at 2:22 pm to dpelle1
quote:
BIG 12 ...
Oklahoma goes 12-0
Okay, I'm going to pump the brakes right here.
Let's assume Oklahoma goes 12-0, hell, let's say they somehow go 13-0.
Does that mean they should be considered for the BCSCG?
Everyone outside of the SEC complains about SEC bias in the BCS but they forget one thing...
...Oklahoma has been to the BCSCG more than ANY other team - and they have the worst win% of teams that havve more than one appearance. Oklahom is 1-3 in the BCSCG.
They won their first appearance against an ACC team, FSU.
In 2003 Oklahoma went into the game as the #1 team in the country matched up against #2 LSU from the SEC - and lost.
In 2004 OK was selected to go to the game over the undefeated SEC champion - where they got their asses handed to them by a Pac team.
In 2008 Again Oklahoma went into the game as the #1 team this time to meet the #2 Florida Gators from the SEC - and lost AGAIN.
Is no one else as sick to death of seeing Oklahoma get ranked #1 every other year, go through their easy schedule and go into the the BCSCG only to get beat?
Why is there no outrage over the Sooners getting chance after chance to beat an SEC team in the BCSCG only to fail?
Isn't it someone else's turn to try to beat the SEC?
2006 SEC vs Big10
2007 SEC vs Big10
2008 SEC vs Big12
2009 SEC vs Big12
2010 SEC vs Pac10
2011...
...At least give the Pac two in a row like the Big10 and Big12 got. Maybe give the ACC a shot?
Anybody but Oklahoma again!
/rant
Posted on 10/5/11 at 2:49 pm to WildTchoupitoulas
quote:
At least give the Pac two in a row like the Big10 and Big12 got. Maybe give the ACC a shot?
Anybody but Oklahoma again!
I think the final vote is public, right?
so you can look back and see who voted for them and tell them off.
Okies are ALREADY #1 in a couple of polls right now. They play Tex and then Ok State. their SOS is just going to be better after those games, if they win out.
Posted on 10/5/11 at 3:22 pm to ottothewise
In 2004, we had 3 unbeaten teams each from major conferences at the end of the season (forget about Utah). It was a pretty big controversy with Auburn being shut out. That's just 1 major conference being shut out.
If we have 4 major conferences (automatic qualifiers) finish undefeated this year. LSU/BAMA, OKIE, WISC, STAN. You can't shut out 2 conferences. I'm saying that someone will get the shaft this year but change will have to be forthcoming next year.
In my opinion this undoubtedly sets up the +1 system, if not the playoff.
What say you?
If we have 4 major conferences (automatic qualifiers) finish undefeated this year. LSU/BAMA, OKIE, WISC, STAN. You can't shut out 2 conferences. I'm saying that someone will get the shaft this year but change will have to be forthcoming next year.
In my opinion this undoubtedly sets up the +1 system, if not the playoff.
What say you?
Posted on 10/5/11 at 3:36 pm to Hubbhogg
Every year it's going to be a clusterfrick, and then teams lose games.
Posted on 10/5/11 at 4:18 pm to CNB
My concern is that any two of Oklahoma, Clemson, and/or Wisconsin end the season undefeated and the SEC champion has 1 loss. I would hate for the SEC to get shut out of the national championship game.
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