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NCAA Championships by Seed
Posted on 3/11/26 at 8:58 am
Posted on 3/11/26 at 8:58 am
Something to keep in mind when you are picking your upset national champion on your bracket. The seeding of each national champion (since 1978 when they began including seeding.)
9-16 seeds: zero championships
8 seed: 1
7 seed: 1
6 seed: 2
5 seed: zero
4 seed: 2
3 seed: 5
2 seed: 8
1 seed: 28
Just something to keep in mind when you are typing in a 4th seed as your national champion. A number one or two seed has won it 76.5% of the time; a number one seed has won it 59.6% of the time.
9-16 seeds: zero championships
8 seed: 1
7 seed: 1
6 seed: 2
5 seed: zero
4 seed: 2
3 seed: 5
2 seed: 8
1 seed: 28
Just something to keep in mind when you are typing in a 4th seed as your national champion. A number one or two seed has won it 76.5% of the time; a number one seed has won it 59.6% of the time.
4
Posted on 3/11/26 at 9:03 am to captdalton
I’m so disappointed…no mention of LSU this time.
Posted on 3/11/26 at 9:08 am to captdalton
quote:
5 seed: zero
A 5 seed is like a death sentence. Most if not all NCAA tournaments have included a 12 over 5 upset in the first round.
Posted on 3/11/26 at 9:35 am to SouthlakeTiger
quote:
SouthlakeTiger
Posted on 3/11/26 at 10:17 am to captdalton
Exponential decay curve.
Posted on 3/11/26 at 10:32 am to DawgTired
quote:
Most if not all NCAA tournaments have included a 12 over 5 upset in the first round.
Yet I pick two 5-12 upsets every year and I'm not sure I have ever gotten one right!!
Posted on 3/11/26 at 11:04 am to Toroballistic
quote:
Yet I pick two 5-12 upsets every year and I'm not sure I have ever gotten one right!!
I feel your pain.
Posted on 3/11/26 at 11:11 am to Toroballistic
Since 1985 when the tournament expanded to 64 teams, the 12 seed has beaten the 5 seed 35% of the time.
Historically, the 11th seed has been the best double digit upset bet. Since 85, the 11th seed has beaten the 6th seed 38% of the time (same as 10-7). Over the last 9 tournaments, the 11 seed has won 53% of the time.
Historically, the 11th seed has been the best double digit upset bet. Since 85, the 11th seed has beaten the 6th seed 38% of the time (same as 10-7). Over the last 9 tournaments, the 11 seed has won 53% of the time.
Posted on 3/11/26 at 11:13 am to captdalton
If you’re not a top seed, best spot to be is an 11 so you play teams in reverse seeding
Posted on 3/11/26 at 1:12 pm to captdalton
quote:
Historically, the 11th seed has been the best double digit upset bet. Since 85, the 11th seed has beaten the 6th seed 38% of the time (same as 10-7). Over the last 9 tournaments, the 11 seed has won 53% of the time.
Good stuff. I’ll keep it in mind when I fill out my bracket. I thought the 12/5 was the more common upset.
Posted on 3/11/26 at 1:28 pm to DawgTired
That 12 vs 5 and 8 vs 9 are some of the toughest games to pick specifically the 8 vs 9. I always agonize over those picks. And the winner of the 8 vs 9 has to turn around and play a 1 seed 
Posted on 3/11/26 at 3:51 pm to Jauquismos
quote:
I always agonize over those picks. And the winner of the 8 vs 9
I tend to go with the 9 seed. I also pick incorrectly a lot.
Posted on 3/11/26 at 5:04 pm to DawgTired
quote:
I also pick incorrectly a lot.
I've been good at doing that for the last I'd say 10 tournaments.
I used to be really good at picking the games but ever since I got married and had kids it was all downhill .
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