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Bama by the Numbers - SECCG
Posted on 12/2/25 at 10:22 am
Posted on 12/2/25 at 10:22 am
NOTES:
-Just cant look at these numbers and watch the two teams last week and expect this to be pretty for anyone
-Very interesting that Bama now has a top 10 FEI offense and defense despite all the injuries, extremely impressive despite the eye test issues
-Look at how ridiculous that FEI schedule is: 6 / 6 / 8 / 13 / 19 / 22 / 24 / 27 / 28 / 31
-Think we really need to reconsider how we're benchmarking Bama considering what they've had to do and where they've had to do it
OFFENSE:
-The rushing game is improving massively (55th adj YPC) due to the defenses changing to cover 2 and cover 3 looks, and while UGA is very good (14th adj YPC def) they aren't as good as AU and if they use that approach we might be able to see 3-4 YPC Saturday
-The passing game is in shambles. 3.5YPA is disaster level bad and we cannot sustain drives or win consistently throwing 35 times with that number.
-I just dont know who you feature or lean on if you're Grubb right now when its 3rd and 6. QB/RB1/RB3/WR1/WR2/C/TE1/TE2 all out or very limited means you just cant run your usual stuff and it was very interesting seeing him go bunch tight looks and running inside against the FEI #3 rush defense last week
DEFENSE
-Bama has a major advantage against the UGA pass offense (22nd adj vs 56th)
-The chunk plays were a huge problem against UGA in the first matchup and while the defense hasn't given up points sitting at 60th in adj YPC defense isn't exactly ideal
-I expect to see a ton of Nickel after Mincey struggled last week to keep what's probably our best secondary combo on the field against a team that isn't exactly a passing juggernaut
-Can the Pierre/Russaw edge combo impact the UGA offense? Bama came up with two sacks in the first matchup, if that number or the pressures can go up you have to wonder if the UGA passing game melts a bit against what is a really good Bama secondary with Lee/Brown
OVERALL
-Statistically these two teams are basically neck and neck (Bama 25 - UGA 27), but the models cant factor in the lack of options in the passing game that are historically what stresses a Kirby Smart defense
-If Bama can't stretch that UGA defense vertically and we have no evidence without Cuevas and with RW/Bernard banged up that we can do that It just seems like we will need turnovers or a couple explosive plays that we haven't seen in weeks to make this work
4
Posted on 12/2/25 at 10:26 am to tide06
They are missing 2 pretty big pieces from their offensive output against us back in September - Bobo (C) and Colbie Young (WR). On top of that, both of Auburn's big plays (which made up the majority of their output) were on plays where Daniels avoided pressure and found an open man amidst the chaos and Simmons then beat guys to the spots on bad angles. Stockton is a very good runner in called QB situations, but he's not really a scrambler and definitely not a scramble to throw guy. I feel much better about our defense vs their offense this go round.
Unfortunately I feel much worse about our offense vs their defense this go round.
Unfortunately I feel much worse about our offense vs their defense this go round.
This post was edited on 12/2/25 at 10:30 am
Posted on 12/2/25 at 10:43 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Unfortunately I feel much worse about our offense vs their defense this go round.
I do too, but Kirby doesn't like to blitz on early downs and they don't have anyone out there like Jordan Davis or Jalen Carter who can just wreck your gameplan all by himself. Quick pressure is what has been eating our offense up and they aren't nearly as well equipped to generate it as most of our last several opponents.
This post was edited on 12/2/25 at 10:44 am
Posted on 12/2/25 at 10:46 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
They are missing 2 pretty big pieces from their offensive output against us back in September - Bobo (C) and Colbie Young (WR)
*Please feel free to share any data you have for this one, you bring great content and I really appreciate your takes.
Feels like two pitchers who are coming in without great command of their power pitch.
If UGA cant run consistently on our front to your point everything changes from the first game.
If Bama cant throw against a UGA secondary thats sitting short and intermediate with complex looks everything changes from our first game.
Again, I just dont know who we lean on to win plays and convert tough downs right now. Simpson running the ball would be a big deal but you can't ask him to do that all day IMO.
Cuevas was usually our secret weapon on conversion situations but he's out and we have a TF running around out there now.
Bernard was usually our first read, but he's just grinding it out for us right now.
I just cant feel too confident when our bread and butter seems to be 50:50 balls to Horton against a UGA defense.
Posted on 12/2/25 at 10:50 am to Robot Santa
quote:
I do too, but Kirby doesn't like to blitz on early downs and they don't have anyone out there like Jordan Davis or Jalen Carter who can just wreck your gameplan all by himself. Quick pressure is what has been eating our offense up and they aren't nearly as well equipped to generate it as most of our last several opponents.
Do agree here - the last 3 defenses we've played (LSU, Oklahoma, Auburn) all had relentless pass rushes along with blitzes from all over pretty consistently. Georgia doesn't have a great pass rush (though it's improved some) and Kirby isn't a big wild blitz guy. That is at least a small matchup positive.
But even the intermediate stuff we had success with all year seemed to disappear last weekend. Don't know if it was covered, Ty was missing it, guys weren't open or what, but there weren't even many attempts at 10-15 yard route options. It seems like that was because teams are sitting down and daring us to go over the top, which I'd imagine we'll see again Saturday. Just going to have to make some of those throws to loosen things up.
Posted on 12/2/25 at 10:50 am to tide06
quote:
*Please feel free to share any data you have for this one, you bring great content and I really appreciate your takes.
These have been great
Agree with everything you said - it's an even matchup again and should be a good one.
Posted on 12/2/25 at 10:54 am to tide06
Thanks for your work. What is FEI?
Posted on 12/2/25 at 10:56 am to SummerOfGeorge
UGA sack totals are picking up.
Injured and inexperienced OL/RB/TE is a dangerous combo.
If Im Georgia the defensive plan should be to reduce all the stretch plays, hide coverages until last moment, play a shite ton of zone, blitz early on downs, and force Ty to stay in the pocket.
If we can’t do screens/quick outs, QB roll outs….we are screwed.
Injured and inexperienced OL/RB/TE is a dangerous combo.
If Im Georgia the defensive plan should be to reduce all the stretch plays, hide coverages until last moment, play a shite ton of zone, blitz early on downs, and force Ty to stay in the pocket.
If we can’t do screens/quick outs, QB roll outs….we are screwed.
Posted on 12/2/25 at 11:03 am to UASports23
My gut feeling is if Alabama wins this game that we will be talking about how AK Dear came up big for us and made 1-2 big plays that created scoring opportunities for the team.
Posted on 12/2/25 at 11:13 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
It seems like that was because teams are sitting down and daring us to go over the top, which I'd imagine we'll see again Saturday. Just going to have to make some of those throws to loosen things up.
I don't think Ty is as off on these as a lot of people who have been critical of him seem to. People talk about his deep ball like he's 2016-2017 Hurts missing receivers by 5+ yards. A lot of them have either been dropped or off by like 2 feet. He's close. I don't have any expectations that he gets it dialed in between now and Saturday, but I don't think it's a glaring weakness in his game that will hinder him long term.
Posted on 12/2/25 at 11:14 am to UASports23
quote:
play a shite ton of zone, blitz early on downs
Two things that Kirby simply is not going to do.
Posted on 12/2/25 at 11:16 am to Bham Bammer
quote:
What is FEI?
It was created by Brian Fremeau as a way to look at the data more efficiently.
Think of it as adjusting all the numbers to account for quality of the opponent that you played relative to how other teams have performed against them, eliminating FCS opponents and taking out garbage time plays.
Posted on 12/2/25 at 11:25 am to Robot Santa
To those who watched their game against GT, what was the deal with them only scoring 16 points ? Was it just an off day for their offense or was it a sign of major issues ? GT does not have the same caliber of athletes on defense and to hold UGA to such a low total is surprising. Tech gave up 42 points to Pitt the week prior.
Posted on 12/2/25 at 11:32 am to Robot Santa
quote:
I don't think Ty is as off on these as a lot of people who have been critical of him seem to. People talk about his deep ball like he's 2016-2017 Hurts missing receivers by 5+ yards. A lot of them have either been dropped or off by like 2 feet. He's close. I don't have any expectations that he gets it dialed in between now and Saturday, but I don't think it's a glaring weakness in his game that will hinder him long term.
Agreed - he isn't incapable nor is he clearly far off. In fact, it could just be a small sample size of throws that had some various issue here or there or whatever.
We need him to hit a couple of them, though. Badly.
Posted on 12/2/25 at 11:35 am to bamatide07
quote:
To those who watched their game against GT, what was the deal with them only scoring 16 points ? Was it just an off day for their offense or was it a sign of major issues ? GT does not have the same caliber of athletes on defense and to hold UGA to such a low total is surprising. Tech gave up 42 points to Pitt the week prior.
I think it was a little bit of a few things. For one, Georgia isn't super explosive in the run game. They are efficient, but they aren't explosive. Because they aren't explosive in general, Tech brought guys down into the box and dared Georgia to go over the top.
Georgia led by 10 at halftime and then again by 10 with 10 minutes left in the game. So most of the game they were very content to run the football, shrink the game and get out of there. I'm sure they would have loved to have broken a few big plays and blown it open, but I don't think Kirby was super concerned about losing the game at any point. On top of that, Gunner had a pretty bad INT early in the 2nd half, which I'm guessing confirmed Kirby's feelings that the only way they'd lose is to give Tech points.
Posted on 12/2/25 at 11:38 am to SummerOfGeorge
The loss of Drew Bobo affected them though. No way that it didn’t. Maybe I’m delusional but if Tech can manage to hold them down like that our defense should fare pretty well. But who knows ? UGA beat Texas 35-14 a few weeks ago.
Posted on 12/2/25 at 11:40 am to bamatide07
quote:
The loss of Drew Bobo affected them though. No way that it didn’t. Maybe I’m delusional but if Tech can manage to hold them down like that our defense should fare pretty well. But who knows ? UGA beat Texas 35-14 a few weeks ago.
I think we match up pretty well with the current iteration of their offense without Bobo and with where our defense is currently. Much better than we did earlier in the season.
Posted on 12/2/25 at 11:42 am to SummerOfGeorge
I agree that our run defense has been much better than it was in the first match up. Nate Frazier is a really good back though. He has the capability to pop an explosive run. Gunner is a good runner as well. Not quite the athlete that we saw with Ashton Daniels but still effective. Dillon Bell and Zach Branch are the X factors for me. They can break a game open fast.
This post was edited on 12/2/25 at 11:44 am
Posted on 12/2/25 at 11:44 am to bamatide07
quote:
I agree that our run defense has been much better than it was in the first match up. Nate Frazier is a really good back though. He has the capability to pop an explosive run. Gunner is a good runner as well. Not quite the athlete that we saw with Ashton Daniels but still effective.
For sure, they are still going to be a very solid run team, and Branch can take it to the house in a hurry, too. I think it is helpful that Stockton is a great called QB run guy, but isn't as much of a scrambler, and definitely not a scramble to throw guy. Daniels killed us with those - it was basically their entire offense.
They are the best offense we've seen since Tennessee, without question.
This post was edited on 12/2/25 at 11:46 am
Posted on 12/2/25 at 11:46 am to SummerOfGeorge
I honestly think that Auburn would have beaten them earlier in the season if they had started Daniels instead of Arnold.
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