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Percentage chance that a 9-3 Texas gets in?
Posted on 11/23/25 at 9:11 am
Posted on 11/23/25 at 9:11 am
I'm not starting this thread to talk X's and O's about the game.
Let's imagine that the sips win on Friday. What kind of chaos would they still need to happen to sneak into the CFP? Is the Florida loss an albatross?
Let's imagine that the sips win on Friday. What kind of chaos would they still need to happen to sneak into the CFP? Is the Florida loss an albatross?
31
Posted on 11/23/25 at 9:11 am to SPAGHETTI PLATE
Zero
Rodo
Rodo
Posted on 11/23/25 at 9:12 am to SPAGHETTI PLATE
Depends on the remaining 10-2 teams
Posted on 11/23/25 at 9:13 am to SPAGHETTI PLATE
Zero. They could beat yall 70-0.
There’s going to be an extreme log jam of 10-2 teams. Shouldn’t have lost to Florida
There’s going to be an extreme log jam of 10-2 teams. Shouldn’t have lost to Florida
Posted on 11/23/25 at 9:13 am to SPAGHETTI PLATE
About six other teams would need to lose. That ain't happening.
But that hasn't stopped the committee from being political before.
But that hasn't stopped the committee from being political before.
Posted on 11/23/25 at 9:13 am to SPAGHETTI PLATE
They would need a lot of teams to lose. Look at the bottom half of the T10 and 11-14. They have to somehow get to #10. Being whipped by UGA was what did them in.
Posted on 11/23/25 at 9:15 am to Rodo
quote:
Zero
Rodo
Posted on 11/23/25 at 9:15 am to ColoradoAg
I think losing to Florida did them in. Kentucky and State games didn’t help, but if they were 10-2 with their only losses to #1 and #4 they’d be in. But that’s assuming they beat yall, #3. Texas has no shot at getting into the playoffs
Posted on 11/23/25 at 9:15 am to SPAGHETTI PLATE
quote:
Percentage chance that a 9-3 Texas gets in?
Texas has done a number on you guys haven't they?
Posted on 11/23/25 at 9:17 am to SPAGHETTI PLATE
I’m more interested to watch how the committee fricks BYU
Rodo
Rodo
Posted on 11/23/25 at 9:18 am to theballguy
Zero sleep will be lost by me if they win. Just making conversation on the board
Posted on 11/23/25 at 9:19 am to SPAGHETTI PLATE
They would pass Vandy for sure but would they pass BYU? Oregon if upset could be out also.
This post was edited on 11/23/25 at 9:20 am
Posted on 11/23/25 at 9:23 am to Gator Fever
They need OU and Vandy to both lose. They need BYU to lose. Tech has to win the XII. Auburn has to beat Bama. Utah and Miami have to lose. There are a lot of two-loss teams and the SEC will not get as many seats as people think due to politics.
Five at most. Four is more likely
Five at most. Four is more likely
Posted on 11/23/25 at 9:24 am to ColoradoAg
They would need complete chaos.
Bama lose to AU
OU lose to LSU
Miami lose to Pitt
Vandy lose to UT
Utah lose to Kansas
Mich lose to OSU
While technically all those are possible, it’s a very, very low probability. Think this combination would make Texas #10.
If BYU were to lose to UCF or ND lose to Stanford, both highly unlikely, that could replace some of losses above as long as at least Bama or OU lose.
Bama lose to AU
OU lose to LSU
Miami lose to Pitt
Vandy lose to UT
Utah lose to Kansas
Mich lose to OSU
While technically all those are possible, it’s a very, very low probability. Think this combination would make Texas #10.
If BYU were to lose to UCF or ND lose to Stanford, both highly unlikely, that could replace some of losses above as long as at least Bama or OU lose.
Posted on 11/23/25 at 9:26 am to ColoradoAg
TX will pass Miami and Utah for sure if they upset A@M. Most likely Vandy also.
Posted on 11/23/25 at 9:27 am to Gator Fever
You are thinking like an SEC fan. No, they won’t.
Posted on 11/23/25 at 9:32 am to SPAGHETTI PLATE
Heather would suddenly claim A&M was an incredible team, and that beating the Aggies should guarantee texas a shot at the post season. A full campaign of how teams should be ranked based on how they are playing right now will ensue and that mistakes earlier in the season should hardly be factored.
Posted on 11/23/25 at 9:35 am to SPAGHETTI PLATE
3.50 %
Posted on 11/23/25 at 9:35 am to ColoradoAg
I deal with a lot of politics for my job. My company is historically an 800lb gorilla, yet the government treats us like we are second class citizens due to vendor exhaustion since we have always had most of the network footprint.
Same situation here. If Texas jumps a lot of 10-2 teams it will be the end of the playoff. The other conferences will raise holy hell, and there is a feeling of SEC exhaustion which is obvious when looking at the committee bias in the rankings.
Three losses doomed Texas, especially being whipped by UGA and a terrible loss to Florida. They need a lot of teams to lose to justify a spot.
Same situation here. If Texas jumps a lot of 10-2 teams it will be the end of the playoff. The other conferences will raise holy hell, and there is a feeling of SEC exhaustion which is obvious when looking at the committee bias in the rankings.
Three losses doomed Texas, especially being whipped by UGA and a terrible loss to Florida. They need a lot of teams to lose to justify a spot.
This post was edited on 11/23/25 at 9:40 am
Posted on 11/23/25 at 9:37 am to SPAGHETTI PLATE
I think getting taken to the woodshed by Georgia is still too recent and combined to Texas’ overall record is going to make that percentage low.
That beatdown by the Dawgs would’ve served Texas better to have happened earlier in the year.
That beatdown by the Dawgs would’ve served Texas better to have happened earlier in the year.
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