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Last Preseason #1 to win Natty?
Posted on 8/21/25 at 9:54 am
Posted on 8/21/25 at 9:54 am
The last preseason #1 team to win the national championship was Alabama in 2017. In the AP Poll era, only 11 teams have started at No. 1 and finished at No. 1. Alabama in 2017 was the most recent to achieve this feat, according to The New York Times. They defeated Georgia in an overtime thriller to secure the title.
AP poll era started in 1936. So if my math is right and that could be questionable, only 11 teams out of 96 have started #1 and finished #1
So Texas has about an 11% chance of winning the Natty.
Would be curious which initial AP poll spot won more Nattys ?
AP poll era started in 1936. So if my math is right and that could be questionable, only 11 teams out of 96 have started #1 and finished #1
So Texas has about an 11% chance of winning the Natty.
Would be curious which initial AP poll spot won more Nattys ?
9
Posted on 8/21/25 at 9:56 am to bamaoldtimer
quote:
11 teams out of 96 have started #1 and finished #1
So Texas has about an 11% chance of winning the Natty.
that's not how it works
Posted on 8/21/25 at 10:01 am to WG_Dawg
quote:
that's not how it works
History suggests that pollsters have always struggled with accuracy in polling. That is how it works. All the wolfing about any preseason poll or award is just so much nonsense and hysteria.
This clearly explains the value of the rants' existence as we know it.
Posted on 8/21/25 at 10:40 am to bamaoldtimer
(no message)
This post was edited on 8/21/25 at 10:44 am
Posted on 8/21/25 at 10:46 am to bamameister
Don’t even waste your time arguing with him. He has 88,932 post in 7,734 days being on the rant.
Thats almost 12 post a day. Just imagine how much porn he watches. Dudes a hack.
Thats almost 12 post a day. Just imagine how much porn he watches. Dudes a hack.
Posted on 8/21/25 at 10:54 am to RTRnFlorida
quote:
Don’t even waste your time arguing with him.
Let me ask you a very straightforward question. If I flip a coin 50 times and it lands on heads 50 times in a row, what are the odds it will land on heads on flip # 51?
Think carefully; not a trick question.
Posted on 8/21/25 at 10:55 am to WG_Dawg
quote:
quote:
11 teams out of 96 have started #1 and finished #1
So Texas has about an 11% chance of winning the Natty.
that's not how it works
So Obi wan, please enlighten how IT does work?
Factoid:In the AP Poll era of college football (1936-present), Alabama has won the most national championships, with 13 titles. Notre Dame and Ohio State are tied for second with nine championships each. Miami (FL) has won 5, and Nebraska and Minnesota have each won 4.
Here's a more detailed breakdown:
Alabama: 13
Notre Dame: 9
Ohio State: 9
Miami (FL): 5
Nebraska: 4
Minnesota: 4
Michigan: 3
Dang, don’t see the DOGS
This post was edited on 8/21/25 at 10:57 am
Posted on 8/21/25 at 11:01 am to bamaoldtimer
If there is one thing certain in life, it is that the Texas teams will always find a way to choke when it matters.
Posted on 8/21/25 at 11:04 am to bamaoldtimer
I am honestly not sure if the playoffs increase or lower the odds?
Posted on 8/21/25 at 11:13 am to bamaoldtimer
quote:
So Texas has about an 11% chance of winning the Natty.
Who gives a shite, we're WINNING IT ALL, surprisingly I don't think we win the SEC championship.
Posted on 8/21/25 at 11:18 am to bamaoldtimer
We have 3 titles..why add Michigan and not Florida...
LSU has 4 why did you leave them out...
LSU has 4 why did you leave them out...
Posted on 8/21/25 at 11:21 am to bamaoldtimer
quote:fify for accuracy
Here's a more detailed breakdown:
Alabama: 13
Auburn: 9
Notre Dame: 9
Ohio State: 9
Miami (FL): 5
Nebraska: 4
Minnesota: 4
Michigan: 3
Posted on 8/21/25 at 11:25 am to bamaoldtimer
quote:
So Obi wan, please enlighten how IT does work?
how does probability work? Do you really need me to explain to you that the previous 96 years have absolutely less than nothing to do with Texas's 2025 football team chances at winning it all?
based on waht we know about 2025 texas and everyone else, it is almost a near certainty that they will make the playoffs. The playoffs will consist of 11 other teams, several of which will be lower level scrubs that our charity system has put in for no reason. Texas will have to win maybe 3 games agianst equally matched teams to win a title, so their chances are definitely better than 11%.
quote:
Factoid:In the AP Poll era of college football (1936-present), Alabama has won the most national championships, with 13 title
that's great, and here's your reassurance you crave. I'm not sure what exctly that has to do wthi the topic at hand though.
And the reason you don't see UGA is because you intentionally cut the numbers off. We have the same number listed there as michigan.
Posted on 8/21/25 at 11:53 am to bamaoldtimer
the NC has come from a team in the preseason AP Top 3 in 8 of the last 10 years..
The exceptions:
2021 Georgia (#5)
2019 LSU (#6)
This year:
#1 Texas
#2 Penn State
#3 Ohio State
-------
#4 Clemson
#5 Georgia
#6 Notre Dame
#7 Oregon
#8 Alabama
#9 LSU
I'd wager everything I own that it comes from one of those 9 teams.
The QB of the last 6 NC
2024 - 23 year old Will Howard - 5th year
2023 - 21 year old JJ McCarthy - 3rd year
2022 - 25 year old Stetson Bennett - 4th year
2021 - 24 year old Stetson Bennett - 4th year
2020 - 22 year old Mac Jones - 4th year
2019 - 23 year old Joe Burrow - 5th year
This year's QB and age
23 year old Garrett Nussmeier - 5th year
22 year old Cade Klubnik - 4th year
22 year old Ty Simpson - 4th year
21 year old Drew Allar - 4th year
21 year old Gunner Stockton - 4th year
21 year old Arch Manning - 3rd year
20 year old Dante Moore - 3rd year
20 year old Julian Sayin - 2nd year
19 year old CJ Carr - 2nd year
The exceptions:
2021 Georgia (#5)
2019 LSU (#6)
This year:
#1 Texas
#2 Penn State
#3 Ohio State
-------
#4 Clemson
#5 Georgia
#6 Notre Dame
#7 Oregon
#8 Alabama
#9 LSU
I'd wager everything I own that it comes from one of those 9 teams.
The QB of the last 6 NC
2024 - 23 year old Will Howard - 5th year
2023 - 21 year old JJ McCarthy - 3rd year
2022 - 25 year old Stetson Bennett - 4th year
2021 - 24 year old Stetson Bennett - 4th year
2020 - 22 year old Mac Jones - 4th year
2019 - 23 year old Joe Burrow - 5th year
This year's QB and age
23 year old Garrett Nussmeier - 5th year
22 year old Cade Klubnik - 4th year
22 year old Ty Simpson - 4th year
21 year old Drew Allar - 4th year
21 year old Gunner Stockton - 4th year
21 year old Arch Manning - 3rd year
20 year old Dante Moore - 3rd year
20 year old Julian Sayin - 2nd year
19 year old CJ Carr - 2nd year
This post was edited on 8/21/25 at 12:25 pm
Posted on 8/21/25 at 1:51 pm to bamaoldtimer
IIRC the only team to go wire to wire #1 was 1999 FSU
Posted on 8/21/25 at 1:57 pm to bamaoldtimer
This stat you posted and the fact the AP #1 is the underdog in week 1 tells you all you really need to know about preseason rankings.
Posted on 8/21/25 at 2:07 pm to WG_Dawg
quote:
Let me ask you a very straightforward question. If I flip a coin 50 times and it lands on heads 50 times in a row, what are the odds it will land on heads on flip # 51?
Seeing as how you have a double headed coin id say the odds are pretty good.
Posted on 8/21/25 at 2:10 pm to bamaoldtimer
quote:
Dang, don’t see the DOGS
Because you left them off (along with UF) for some reason even though they have 3 just like Michigan.
Posted on 8/21/25 at 2:33 pm to WG_Dawg
The probability of heads on flip #51 is still 50% (1/2).
Unless you’re standing on Peachtree street in Hotlanta, then your coin is probably being stolen.
Unless you’re standing on Peachtree street in Hotlanta, then your coin is probably being stolen.
Posted on 8/21/25 at 2:35 pm to bamaoldtimer
quote:
AP poll era started in 1936. So if my math is right and that could be questionable, only 11 teams out of 96 have started #1 and finished #1
So Texas has about an 11% chance of winning the Natty.
Did you take statistics at Auburn?
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