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What Are We Missing With Jarin Stevenson Getting Starts? (Evan Miya Breakdown)
Posted on 1/10/25 at 8:25 am
Posted on 1/10/25 at 8:25 am
Disclaimer: None of this is actually mine. It is all borrowed from Evan Miya's analytics site. Highly recommend it for $5 a month. This is just a small sample of what you'd get
Jarin Stevenson has a complicated reputation with the fanbase. 5-star kid from Chapel Hill that picked us over the Tarheels and had a monster game in the biggest tournament win in program history as a freshman. Was seen as a big keep after declaring for the draft. However, his reputation as a potential draft pick seems baffling at times. To my untrained eye, its hard to pinpoint what he does better than a contemporary like Mo Dioubate
All that being said, he still gets starts on maybe the deepest team we have ever had under Oats. One explanation is defense as CNO has praised his defense on multiple occasions. It does make sense that having a lanky 6'10 guy in addition to Cliff and Nelson in the starting lineup completely changes how a team can attack us. That lineup is also surely a pain in the arse to rebound against. But what does that do to the offense and the team overall? This is not a "Jarin is our glue guy and you are all idiots" thread. I'm moreso looking to get more insight into what Oats is potentially seeing.
Below are 3 charts showing the same info oriented to emphasize defensive, offensive, and overall efficiency respectively. I have limited it to lineups that have had at least 15 offensive and defensive possessions.
(High Numbers=Good Offensive Efficiency and Good Overall Efficiency)
(Low Numbers=Good Defensive Efficiency)
(Darker Orange=Good, Darker Blue=Bad)
Defense
As you can see, Jarin is involved in our best 3 defensive lineups and only one that isn't dark orange. He is not involved in any bad or even average defensive lineup. The only comparable player is Mo D but to a much lesser degree.
Offense
Many of you probably would have guessed that Jarin's inclusion often leads to poor offense. It is definitely a mixed bag. While the best offensive lineup includes Jarin, it is a small sample size. Otherwise he is involved in one decent offensive lineup and two pretty bad ones. Cliff + Jarin seems to particularly produce great defense and mixed offense
Overall
Overall is pretty kind to Jarin. He is involved in our best lineup and a bunch of good ones. You also won't find him anywhere near our worst lineups
***************************
Thoughts? Is Jarin our glue guy that just needs a few more 3s to fall? Are his efficiency numbers skewed because of how often he plays with great players?
Jarin Stevenson has a complicated reputation with the fanbase. 5-star kid from Chapel Hill that picked us over the Tarheels and had a monster game in the biggest tournament win in program history as a freshman. Was seen as a big keep after declaring for the draft. However, his reputation as a potential draft pick seems baffling at times. To my untrained eye, its hard to pinpoint what he does better than a contemporary like Mo Dioubate
All that being said, he still gets starts on maybe the deepest team we have ever had under Oats. One explanation is defense as CNO has praised his defense on multiple occasions. It does make sense that having a lanky 6'10 guy in addition to Cliff and Nelson in the starting lineup completely changes how a team can attack us. That lineup is also surely a pain in the arse to rebound against. But what does that do to the offense and the team overall? This is not a "Jarin is our glue guy and you are all idiots" thread. I'm moreso looking to get more insight into what Oats is potentially seeing.
Below are 3 charts showing the same info oriented to emphasize defensive, offensive, and overall efficiency respectively. I have limited it to lineups that have had at least 15 offensive and defensive possessions.
(High Numbers=Good Offensive Efficiency and Good Overall Efficiency)
(Low Numbers=Good Defensive Efficiency)
(Darker Orange=Good, Darker Blue=Bad)
Defense
As you can see, Jarin is involved in our best 3 defensive lineups and only one that isn't dark orange. He is not involved in any bad or even average defensive lineup. The only comparable player is Mo D but to a much lesser degree.
Offense
Many of you probably would have guessed that Jarin's inclusion often leads to poor offense. It is definitely a mixed bag. While the best offensive lineup includes Jarin, it is a small sample size. Otherwise he is involved in one decent offensive lineup and two pretty bad ones. Cliff + Jarin seems to particularly produce great defense and mixed offense
Overall
Overall is pretty kind to Jarin. He is involved in our best lineup and a bunch of good ones. You also won't find him anywhere near our worst lineups
***************************
Thoughts? Is Jarin our glue guy that just needs a few more 3s to fall? Are his efficiency numbers skewed because of how often he plays with great players?
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Posted on 1/10/25 at 8:42 am to Glorious
God only knows if im reading this right...
But is this chart saying that our most efficient offensive line up (and overall most efficient lineup in general collectively) is Mo and Jarin both on the court together? That's kind of cool if so because it looks like the other most efficient line up is pulling Mo and Jarin and plugging in Youngblood and Cliff. That's a great rotation asset if true.
But is this chart saying that our most efficient offensive line up (and overall most efficient lineup in general collectively) is Mo and Jarin both on the court together? That's kind of cool if so because it looks like the other most efficient line up is pulling Mo and Jarin and plugging in Youngblood and Cliff. That's a great rotation asset if true.
This post was edited on 1/10/25 at 8:44 am
Posted on 1/10/25 at 8:47 am to GoodTalkRuss
quote:
But is this chart saying that our most efficient offensive line up (and overall most efficient lineup in general collectively) is Mo and Jarin both on the court together?
Yes
quote:
it looks like the other most efficient line up is pulling Mo and Jarin and plugging in Youngblood and Cliff.
Sears, Philon, Nelson, Youngblood, and Cliff is definitely one the look out for. Might just be the best of all worlds
This post was edited on 1/10/25 at 8:50 am
Posted on 1/10/25 at 8:47 am to Glorious
Thanks for posting this 
Is it too simple minded to say yes to both of these questions? If he could just hit a respectable number from deep, that probably would take us from very good to great because the numbers above show he already helps us out just by being on the floor (whether my eyes actually believe that or not is another story).
quote:
Thoughts? Is Jarin our glue guy that just needs a few more 3s to fall? Are his efficiency numbers skewed because of how often he plays with great players?
Is it too simple minded to say yes to both of these questions? If he could just hit a respectable number from deep, that probably would take us from very good to great because the numbers above show he already helps us out just by being on the floor (whether my eyes actually believe that or not is another story).
Posted on 1/10/25 at 9:00 am to Glorious
Interesting stuff from the lineup combos.
Not sure what it tells us about Jarin. Having three really tall guys helps defensively, i guess. But also it probably means that he does a lot of little things well. Defensively he is a guy who shrinks the perimeter. Most college players arent comfortable shooting over that much length. Cliff and Grant are pretty good rim protectors. But Stevenson is not terrible either. Did he have the block that was called a GT against Oregon?
We dont often use him in the same defensive role as we did with Noah Clowney. But he is taking the same approach of being a defense first player. He doesnt deserve some of the bullshite he gets on here bc he doesnt score 12 points every night. But at the same time, we cant have him chucking 3s all night either. I do think the whole team has gotten better with shot selection the last few games.
Not sure what it tells us about Jarin. Having three really tall guys helps defensively, i guess. But also it probably means that he does a lot of little things well. Defensively he is a guy who shrinks the perimeter. Most college players arent comfortable shooting over that much length. Cliff and Grant are pretty good rim protectors. But Stevenson is not terrible either. Did he have the block that was called a GT against Oregon?
We dont often use him in the same defensive role as we did with Noah Clowney. But he is taking the same approach of being a defense first player. He doesnt deserve some of the bullshite he gets on here bc he doesnt score 12 points every night. But at the same time, we cant have him chucking 3s all night either. I do think the whole team has gotten better with shot selection the last few games.
Posted on 1/10/25 at 9:05 am to Bryant91092
quote:
Is it too simple minded to say yes to both of these questions?
The implicit question was whether Jarin specifically contributes in a way that nobody else can or is Mo D a better version that doesn’t hamper the offense as much
The answer was “kinda yes” to both
This post was edited on 1/10/25 at 9:12 am
Posted on 1/10/25 at 9:05 am to Glorious
Thanks for sharing! I'd like to see Jarin get a few threes from the top of the key. Seems like most of his threes come from the corner (I don't have stats to back that up, someone better with stats might though) and while they may be open he's just missing on most of them. Shoot from the top of the key, bank it in if you have to and get your confidence back up
Posted on 1/10/25 at 9:07 am to Glorious
This is good data and tracks with what I've observed. Stevenson is way underappreciated. What he does well isn't easy to see to the average fan because it isn't scoring (for now) and it doesn't even involve the kind of thing you notice with Dioubate (big blocks and bruising rebounds). It's altering shots of whoever he's guarding. It's making passes more difficult because of his length. It's stressing the help defender when they see him on an island with a 6'4" dude in the corner.
Couple other observations:
- We are way more efficient offensively with Nelson at the 4 than the 5. No shock there.
- Relatedly, we really need more out of Cliff. He was brought in to anchor the defense but he's involved in our three WORST defensive lineups. Has to step it up so that we aren't forced to make ourselves less efficient offensively by putting Nelson at the 5.
It is funny that our worst defensive lineup has 4 of the same 5 guys as our best defensive lineup, with the lone exception of Holloway for Stevenson.
Couple other observations:
- We are way more efficient offensively with Nelson at the 4 than the 5. No shock there.
- Relatedly, we really need more out of Cliff. He was brought in to anchor the defense but he's involved in our three WORST defensive lineups. Has to step it up so that we aren't forced to make ourselves less efficient offensively by putting Nelson at the 5.
It is funny that our worst defensive lineup has 4 of the same 5 guys as our best defensive lineup, with the lone exception of Holloway for Stevenson.
This post was edited on 1/10/25 at 9:12 am
Posted on 1/10/25 at 9:16 am to TideCPA
quote:
- We are way more efficient offensively with Nelson at the 4 than the 5. No shock there
This was crazy effective on offense last year as well
quote:
Relatedly, we really need more out of Cliff. He was brought in to anchor the defense but he's involved in our three WORST defensive lineups. Has to step it up so that we aren't forced to make ourselves less efficient offensively by putting Nelson at the 5.
But also our 3 best defensive lineups. I have no explanation
Posted on 1/10/25 at 9:19 am to TideCPA
quote:
It's altering shots of whoever he's guarding. It's making passes more difficult because of his length.
Oats wants to make inside 2s and 3s as difficult as possible. Jarin arguably cumulatively effects both more than anyone
Posted on 1/10/25 at 9:25 am to Glorious
I’ve wondered why Oats keeps Stevenson in the starting lineup. He’s doing things I can’t see and helps the team more than I notice. Weird how Oats knows more than I do. As the other poster said, seems like Stevenson is always shooting from the corners, those will start falling soon.
Posted on 1/10/25 at 9:53 am to Syd
I know Oats had high praise for Mo after shutting down Murray Boyles, but I also noticed he was switching to Pringle a lot and really kind of slowed Pringle down. I thought Pringle was giving Cliff problems defensively in the 1st half and ultimately it appeared Oats was basically done playing Cliff at the 17 minute mark of the 2nd half.
I have noticed that in multiple games this year that if Cliff doesn't seem to be in the gameflow, Oats just ultimately pulls him and doesn't go back. It's weird because I felt like prior to the SC game Cliff was starting to really show some energy.
I have noticed that in multiple games this year that if Cliff doesn't seem to be in the gameflow, Oats just ultimately pulls him and doesn't go back. It's weird because I felt like prior to the SC game Cliff was starting to really show some energy.
This post was edited on 1/10/25 at 9:54 am
Posted on 1/10/25 at 9:57 am to GoodTalkRuss
quote:
Couple other observations:
- We are way more efficient offensively with Nelson at the 4 than the 5. No shock there.
It would certainly seem that way, but doesn't this chart indicate that our most efficient offensive lineup is with Grant at the 5 and Mo at the 4? Granted, Mo will cover the 5 at times.
This post was edited on 1/10/25 at 9:58 am
Posted on 1/10/25 at 10:37 am to TideCPA
quote:
- Relatedly, we really need more out of Cliff. He was brought in to anchor the defense but he's involved in our three WORST defensive lineups. Has to step it up so that we aren't forced to make ourselves less efficient offensively by putting Nelson at the 5.
This is the most shocking takeaway of the entire analysis to me.
That guy should be an absolute gamechanger defensively as a rim protector but its not playing out that way from an analytics standpoint.
I legitimately thought he was the difference between a NC and another F4 ceiling when he was brought in. Time will tell I guess.
Posted on 1/10/25 at 10:49 am to Glorious
You’re an idiot! Unless, of course, you agree with my takes.
Seriously, though, thanks for the data. It is eye opening is it not? Obviously, Jarin does things that I don’t readily see. The reality is that often we may question why so-and-so gets drafted, but programs have been measuring hidden value.
I love our moneyball coach.
Seriously, though, thanks for the data. It is eye opening is it not? Obviously, Jarin does things that I don’t readily see. The reality is that often we may question why so-and-so gets drafted, but programs have been measuring hidden value.
I love our moneyball coach.
Posted on 1/10/25 at 10:51 am to tide06
quote:
That guy should be an absolute gamechanger defensively as a rim protector but its not playing out that way from an analytics standpoint.
I will say that they have a stat for team defensive rating when each individual player is on the court and Cliff is #2 behind Jarin
Posted on 1/10/25 at 11:08 am to Glorious
quote:
But also our 3 best defensive lineups. I have no explanation
All 3 of the good defensive lineups he's in are traditional 2 guard lineups. 2 of the 3 bad ones he's in are 3 guard lineups. Makes sense considering he came from a very methodical, slow paced offensive system at Rutgers.
This post was edited on 1/10/25 at 11:09 am
Posted on 1/10/25 at 11:23 am to Glorious
It really depends how you read the numbers. If you take into account the number of possessions involved in the rating, he's in one of the top lineups but with much fewer possessions. He's in three of the mediocre line ups with more possessions.
I'm sure Oats has a reason for starting Jarin, but it's not these numbers. If it was, you'd see him starting Mo and Holloway.
I'm sure Oats has a reason for starting Jarin, but it's not these numbers. If it was, you'd see him starting Mo and Holloway.
Posted on 1/10/25 at 11:58 am to DT55Forever1
quote:
I'm sure Oats has a reason for starting Jarin, but it's not these numbers. If it was, you'd see him starting Mo and Holloway.
The way I see it, Sears and Philon are the two most non-negotiable starters on the team followed by Nelson then Cliff. So it’s tricky getting Aden in the starting lineup
Jarin’s spot is the most up for grabs. These numbers at very least provide a plausible explanation why Jarin should start over Mo, but not overwhelmingly so. You can also look at this and still reasonably conclude that Mo D should start just as the eye-test is telling all of us
This post was edited on 1/10/25 at 12:05 pm
Posted on 1/10/25 at 12:09 pm to DT55Forever1
quote:
If you take into account the number of possessions involved in the rating, he's in one of the top lineups but with much fewer possessions
This is fair. If this were a bubble chart, it would show our usual starting lineup as a big bubble with good overall efficiency but not great and two much smaller bubbles in which we are great with Jarin in the game
This post was edited on 1/10/25 at 12:11 pm
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