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It's all about the talent.
Posted on 12/22/24 at 6:53 pm
Posted on 12/22/24 at 6:53 pm
In the first 4 playoff games, three of them were between a team who's blue chip ratio (measuring the percentage of their team that are 4 or 5 stars) below 50% and a team that was above 50%.
Since recruiting rankings have existed, no team below 50% for their blue chip ratio has ever won a national title. The reality is that the teams below 50% have no shot in a 3-4 game playoff scenario.
Indiana was below 50%. ND was above 50%. ND won.
SMU was below 50%. PSU was above 50%. PSU won.
Tennessee was below 50%. OSU was above 50%. OSU won.
Some people might be surprised by that one... but while Tennessee rides the coat tails of the big name SEC teams, they don't have the same degree of talent. They have 41 blue chips. 43 is needed to be above the blue chip line.
Clemson and Texas was the only match up between two teams above the 50% blue chip ratio line. And it was the most interesting game to watch (even though the ND/Indiana game was closer on the score board, that was due to late scores, not the game ever having any doubt late)
There are two more games involving teams sub 50% on the blue chip ratio. I don't expect either to be good games. PSU vs BSU and Texas vs ASU.
But other than that the rest of the games will likely be entertaining to watch.
Having matchups between teams that lack enough talent to win a title and those who have enough talent... especially when the more talented team is at home... are going to result in blowouts.
The more talented team won't always win. But those without ENOUGH talent have no chance to win the 3-4 games in a row they'd need to win a championship.
In the end... it is all about the talent.
Since recruiting rankings have existed, no team below 50% for their blue chip ratio has ever won a national title. The reality is that the teams below 50% have no shot in a 3-4 game playoff scenario.
Indiana was below 50%. ND was above 50%. ND won.
SMU was below 50%. PSU was above 50%. PSU won.
Tennessee was below 50%. OSU was above 50%. OSU won.
Some people might be surprised by that one... but while Tennessee rides the coat tails of the big name SEC teams, they don't have the same degree of talent. They have 41 blue chips. 43 is needed to be above the blue chip line.
Clemson and Texas was the only match up between two teams above the 50% blue chip ratio line. And it was the most interesting game to watch (even though the ND/Indiana game was closer on the score board, that was due to late scores, not the game ever having any doubt late)
There are two more games involving teams sub 50% on the blue chip ratio. I don't expect either to be good games. PSU vs BSU and Texas vs ASU.
But other than that the rest of the games will likely be entertaining to watch.
Having matchups between teams that lack enough talent to win a title and those who have enough talent... especially when the more talented team is at home... are going to result in blowouts.
The more talented team won't always win. But those without ENOUGH talent have no chance to win the 3-4 games in a row they'd need to win a championship.
In the end... it is all about the talent.
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Posted on 12/22/24 at 7:22 pm to DawginSC
You don’t belong on tRant. Applying math, history, and a nuanced application of recruiting ratings to a whole team like that.
Have an upvote, though.
Have an upvote, though.
Posted on 12/22/24 at 7:25 pm to DawginSC
quote:not surprising when a shitty Florida team whose coach was a dead man walking for half the year out recruited the Vols (once Dallas Wilson officially flips) per 247 rankings and had a 70th ranked class a few weeks before the end of the season
while Tennessee rides the coat tails of the big name SEC teams, they don't have the same degree of talent. They have 41 blue chips. 43 is needed to be above the blue chip line.
Tennessee made the playoffs and had double digit wins and is struggling to keep up with dumpster fire Florida on the trail
Its no wonder why they don’t have talent stacked like UGA, Ohio state Bama etc
Posted on 12/22/24 at 7:28 pm to DawginSC
A post like this is why we need a serious football sub-forum here.
Makes a lot of sense. Let's say Alabama did get in over Indiana or SMU, would they have performed substantially better since they are one of the highest blue chip ratio teams?
Makes a lot of sense. Let's say Alabama did get in over Indiana or SMU, would they have performed substantially better since they are one of the highest blue chip ratio teams?
This post was edited on 12/22/24 at 7:30 pm
Posted on 12/22/24 at 7:31 pm to LSUTigresFan
quote:
Let's say Alabama did get in over Indiana or SMU, would they have performed substantially better
Depends which Milton showed up to play the game.
Posted on 12/22/24 at 7:35 pm to Northern Gator
quote:
Tennessee made the playoffs and had double digit wins and is struggling to keep up with dumpster fire Florida on the trail
They aren't keeping up with UF at all.
UF is one of the teams above the 50% blue chip line. They had 52 blue chips this year. Their issue isn't talent. It's coaching. The fact they were one of the 15 teams with enough talent to win the national title this year DESPITE Napier is why that job has so much value.
Auburn is above that line too... barely. They had 43 this year.
Teams like Mizzou (29), Ole Miss (30), SC (30) and yes Tennessee (41) simply aren't there. They don't have the horses. They might make the playoff but they'll be like Indiana or ASU. A "happy to be there" team unless the face another similarly talented team in the first round.
SMU had 25 blue chips... not that different from SC or Ole Miss or Mizzou.
ASU has 18.
Indiana had 10.
BSU has 2.
Compare that to UGA (69), OSU (69), Texas (61), Oregon (56), ND (58) or PSU (51).
Yes PSU had less talent than UF. UF needs to find a better coach.
Posted on 12/22/24 at 7:37 pm to LSUTigresFan
quote:
A post like this is why we need a serious football sub-forum here.
Chicken only wants engagement, clicks.
IF serious sports discussion between fanbases was the objective (which I really wish it was) then the moderators of this board would immediately delete trolling posts, start banning those that constantly trolled, and they’d actually stop alters from occurring.
But… they won’t.
Posted on 12/22/24 at 7:38 pm to DawginSC
I think UF will eventually be back in the picture. What they showed after the lose to Texas was promising while also having close games against Tennessee and Georgia until their starting qbs got hurt.
Posted on 12/22/24 at 7:38 pm to Tammany Tom
quote:
Chicken only wants engagement, clicks.
IF serious sports discussion between fanbases was the objective (which I really wish it was) then the moderators of this board would immediately delete trolling posts, start banning those that constantly trolled, and they’d actually stop alters from occurring.
But… they won’t.
They could still have this troll board while also having a serious one.
Posted on 12/22/24 at 7:41 pm to LSUTigresFan
quote:
Makes a lot of sense. Let's say Alabama did get in over Indiana or SMU, would they have performed substantially better since they are one of the highest blue chip ratio teams?
They would have had a shot.
The blue chip ratio isn't something where the team with the better ratio wins. It's more a minimum level of talent needed to win a title.
Bama EASILY has that level of talent with 67 blue chips. But for comparison... so did Florida (52), Auburn (43) and FSU (44). It doesn't mean you're going to win a title or even be good if you have that talent. It simply means that if your coach does a good enough job, you CAN win a title. Below that level you simply cannot.
A bad coach or a coach who lost their team is still going to put a poor product on the field. A bad QB can torpedo an otherwise talented team. But the reality is at the start of the season there were only 15 teams with a legitimate chance to win a national title.
6 of the last 8 teams are from that original group of 15.
I expect all of the final 4 will be.
Posted on 12/22/24 at 7:42 pm to DawginSC
Yeah. That's why, as horrible as Hugh has been on Saturdays, there's at least a little bit of hope because of his recruiting.
I will say that I think there's some weird micro subsection of this blue chip argument. Every SEC program pulls a bunch of 4 stars, but not all 4 stars are created nearly as equal.
I will say that I think there's some weird micro subsection of this blue chip argument. Every SEC program pulls a bunch of 4 stars, but not all 4 stars are created nearly as equal.
Posted on 12/22/24 at 7:49 pm to LSUTigresFan
quote:
A post like this is why we need a serious football sub-forum here.
Makes a lot of sense. Let's say Alabama did get in over Indiana or SMU, would they have performed substantially better since they are one of the highest blue chip ratio teams?
Not necessary because he couldn't coach them to their potential and win games when the team had a higher blue chip ratio than those teams he lost to. Also DeBoer is in his first year at Alabama. Give him time to make adjustments and get comfortable coaching in the SEC. Almost all first year HCs would struggle in their first year.
Posted on 12/22/24 at 7:55 pm to DawginSC
quote:overall no
They aren't keeping up with UF at all. UF is one of the teams above the 50% blue chip line
I was referring to just this year only
We were 11 until Dallas Wilson flipped and just overtook them in the rankings
And my point is even when we are a dumpster fire we still out recruit the Vols when they are doing well
Posted on 12/22/24 at 7:56 pm to TrueLefty
I think DeBoer is gonna be fine at Alabama. I get these kids at Bama are talented, but that doesn't mean they fit the schemes and culture he wants to have.
It took 3 years for Sark to finally get culture right at Texas.
It took 3 years for Sark to finally get culture right at Texas.
Posted on 12/22/24 at 7:58 pm to LSUTigresFan
quote:
Makes a lot of sense. Let's say Alabama did get in over Indiana or SMU, would they have performed substantially better since they are one of the highest blue chip ratio teams?
Problem with Bama is they were a good QB away from being a great team. Bama could have beat any of those teams and lost to any of those teams except SMU and Indiana. Those two teams didn’t belong because they don’t have near the talent to compete. Everyone knew that prior to the game. We got exactly what we expected.
Posted on 12/22/24 at 8:10 pm to LSUTigresFan
quote:
I think DeBoer is gonna be fine at Alabama. I get these kids at Bama are talented, but that doesn't mean they fit the schemes and culture he wants to have.
I tend to agree. My one question with him is if his recruiting would be elite or just "pretty good" (no coach at Bama recruits worse than "pretty good").
And he did an elite job in his first year pulling in recruits.
Honestly at this point the only way I see him "failing" is either if the bar is set too high (he fails to win a national title his first 5 years despite getting close, but that isn't good enough for Bama), or if he ends up not being able to hire the right guy on the defensive side.
Deboer is the inverse of Smart. Smart is a good enough defensive coach that UGA's defense will never be bad. But the offense needs a good coordinator to work. Smart showed the right mindset when after failing with one OC (James Coley), he IMMEDIATELY replaced him after one year when it was clearly not working.
Mark Richt by comparison would have loyalty toward "his guy" and would have given him several years to try to improve (an example was Willie Martinez as UGA's DC).
That level of "cuthroatness" for lack of a better word is needed. Pay your performers well, but cut the guys who aren't doing well QUICKLY. It's still unclear if Deboer is that guy. I'm not saying Womack did bad enough to warrant immediate replacement. Overall their defense wasn't horrible. But at some point there will be a decision where Saban or Smart would fire a friend due to performance being sub par where Richt would not. And if the falls on the Mark Richt side of that decision when it comes, it could turn a solid coaching tenure into a sub par one (at least by Bama standards).
Posted on 12/22/24 at 8:14 pm to DawginSC
Yea, Bama does have the #2 recruiting class from 247 and they got the #2 player and qb in the class coming in too.
Will be interesting to see how it plays out. Has Bama fired any of their coordinators yet or are they waiting until after the bowl game?
Will be interesting to see how it plays out. Has Bama fired any of their coordinators yet or are they waiting until after the bowl game?
Posted on 12/22/24 at 8:18 pm to DawginSC
We comin
Posted on 12/22/24 at 10:04 pm to DawginSC
Upvote here
Posted on 12/22/24 at 10:08 pm to Northern Gator
quote:
while Tennessee rides the coat tails of the big name SEC teams, they don't have the same degree of talent. They have 41 blue chips. 43 is needed to be above the blue chip line.
not surprising when a shitty Florida team whose coach was a dead man walking for half the year out recruited the Vols (once Dallas Wilson officially flips) per 247 rankings and had a 70th ranked class a few weeks before the end of the season
Tennessee made the playoffs and had double digit wins and is struggling to keep up with dumpster fire Florida on the trail
Its no wonder why they don’t have talent stacked like UGA, Ohio state Bama etc
Who is the Tennessee HC? Enough said!
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