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After Week 12 SoS rankings.
Posted on 11/21/24 at 1:17 pm
Posted on 11/21/24 at 1:17 pm
Using the FEI ELS metric. Pretty much the only SoS I consider valid since it's not based on averages.
Strength of schedule ratings represent the number of losses a team two standard deviations above average would expect to have against the schedule of opponents (ELS),
Only for games played thus far, doesn't count future games. Listed in order by overall rank, expected losses to the right.
2. Georgia 2.37
3. Florida 2.18
4. Oklahoma 2.03
7. LSU 1.89
8. Arkansas 1.88
11. Kentucky 1.85
12. Miss St 1.81
13. South Carolina 1.76
14. Vandy 1.70
15. Alabama 1.52
21. Tennessee 1.30
24. Missouri 1.22
27. Ole Miss 1.18
28. Texas A&M 1.15
42. Auburn .85
43. Texas .85
Non SEC Top10 teams:
20. Ohio St 1.31
29. Oregon 1.15
30. Penn St 1.14
83. Miami .44
109. Indiana .23
My thoughts: Auburn is now tied with the weakest schedule in the SEC AND has a terrible record on top. This Auburn team ranks up there with some of the worst I've seen in my lifetime and yet I'm still somewhat worried they could beat Alabama. I don't know how this team is this bad when they could be so much better.
Georgia has played a schedule that is 10 times harder than Indiana's.
After this weekend I wouldn't be surprised to see both Florida and Oklahoma jump Georgia. But I think Florida might end up with the toughest overall schedule after they play Ole Miss this weekend. Florida pretty lucky FSU is arse this year or it would be for sure the #1 toughest.
2024 FEI Ratings
Strength of schedule ratings represent the number of losses a team two standard deviations above average would expect to have against the schedule of opponents (ELS),
Only for games played thus far, doesn't count future games. Listed in order by overall rank, expected losses to the right.
2. Georgia 2.37
3. Florida 2.18
4. Oklahoma 2.03
7. LSU 1.89
8. Arkansas 1.88
11. Kentucky 1.85
12. Miss St 1.81
13. South Carolina 1.76
14. Vandy 1.70
15. Alabama 1.52
21. Tennessee 1.30
24. Missouri 1.22
27. Ole Miss 1.18
28. Texas A&M 1.15
42. Auburn .85
43. Texas .85
Non SEC Top10 teams:
20. Ohio St 1.31
29. Oregon 1.15
30. Penn St 1.14
83. Miami .44
109. Indiana .23
My thoughts: Auburn is now tied with the weakest schedule in the SEC AND has a terrible record on top. This Auburn team ranks up there with some of the worst I've seen in my lifetime and yet I'm still somewhat worried they could beat Alabama. I don't know how this team is this bad when they could be so much better.
Georgia has played a schedule that is 10 times harder than Indiana's.
After this weekend I wouldn't be surprised to see both Florida and Oklahoma jump Georgia. But I think Florida might end up with the toughest overall schedule after they play Ole Miss this weekend. Florida pretty lucky FSU is arse this year or it would be for sure the #1 toughest.
2024 FEI Ratings
This post was edited on 11/21/24 at 1:27 pm
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Posted on 11/21/24 at 1:18 pm to 3down10
Posted on 11/21/24 at 1:21 pm to 3down10
Notre Dame, Indiana and Miami have a weaker ELS than Boise St
"Power conference" (or equivalent in the ND case) teams with a weaker schedule (for a "playoff" caliber team) than a "mid-major"
"Power conference" (or equivalent in the ND case) teams with a weaker schedule (for a "playoff" caliber team) than a "mid-major"
This post was edited on 11/21/24 at 1:26 pm
Posted on 11/21/24 at 1:23 pm to 3down10
AU's defense is stout, 12th nationally in rushing D, 13th in total D. They have not allowed more than 227 total yds in their past 3 games. That game will be, as Rick Bragg said "like a knife fight in a ditch."
Posted on 11/21/24 at 1:24 pm to 3down10
If you take this to it's logical conclusion and compare expected losses for an elite team vs actual loses the SEC scores out like this (over/under expected losses)
1. Georgia (-0.37)
2. Texas (0.15)
3. Alabama (0.48)
4. Tennessee (0.70)
5. Ole Miss (0.82)
6. Texas A&M (0.85)
7. South Carolina (1.24)
8. Missouri (1.78)
9. LSU (2.11)
10. Vanderbilt (2.30)
11. Florida (2.82)
12. Oklahoma (2.97)
13. Arkansas (3.12)
14. Kentucky (4.15)
15. Auburn (5.15)
16. Mississippi State (6.19)
1. Georgia (-0.37)
2. Texas (0.15)
3. Alabama (0.48)
4. Tennessee (0.70)
5. Ole Miss (0.82)
6. Texas A&M (0.85)
7. South Carolina (1.24)
8. Missouri (1.78)
9. LSU (2.11)
10. Vanderbilt (2.30)
11. Florida (2.82)
12. Oklahoma (2.97)
13. Arkansas (3.12)
14. Kentucky (4.15)
15. Auburn (5.15)
16. Mississippi State (6.19)
Posted on 11/21/24 at 1:26 pm to 3down10
quote:
This Auburn team ranks up there with some of the worst I've seen in my lifetime and yet I'm still somewhat worried they could beat Alabama. I don't know how this team is this bad when they could be so much better.
We lack an alpha at QB.
We also have a retarded Head Coach who continues to feature our incompetence in the passing game.
We have a good RB. A solid defense. A great punter.
Kicker has been a struggle due to McPherson getting so sick and missing most of the season.
This team has not quit, but Throne has made me quit.
Posted on 11/21/24 at 1:26 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Playoff Contenders
1. Oregon (-1.15)
2. Georgia (-0.37)
3. Ohio State (-0.31)
4. Penn State (-0.14)
5. Texas (0.15)
6. Indiana (0.23)
7. Alabama (0.48)
8. Miami (0.56)
9. Tennessee (0.70)
10. Ole Miss (0.82)
11. Texas A&M (0.85)
1. Oregon (-1.15)
2. Georgia (-0.37)
3. Ohio State (-0.31)
4. Penn State (-0.14)
5. Texas (0.15)
6. Indiana (0.23)
7. Alabama (0.48)
8. Miami (0.56)
9. Tennessee (0.70)
10. Ole Miss (0.82)
11. Texas A&M (0.85)
Posted on 11/21/24 at 1:27 pm to 3down10
Easy. We have no QB. The most important position on the team.
How is this one of the worst teams you've ever seen? We've been in every game but one. 2003 and 2007 Alabama teams and 2012 and 2022 Auburn teams are easily worse than this current team.
How is this one of the worst teams you've ever seen? We've been in every game but one. 2003 and 2007 Alabama teams and 2012 and 2022 Auburn teams are easily worse than this current team.
Posted on 11/21/24 at 1:29 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
1. Georgia (-0.37)
2. Texas (0.15)
3. Alabama (0.48)
4. Tennessee (0.70)
5. Ole Miss (0.82)
6. Texas A&M (0.85)
7. South Carolina (1.24)
8. Missouri (1.78)
9. LSU (2.11)
10. Vanderbilt (2.30)
11. Florida (2.82)
12. Oklahoma (2.97)
13. Arkansas (3.12)
14. Kentucky (4.15)
15. Auburn (5.15)
16. Mississippi State (6.19)
Nice, I like this. I guess Miss St does deserve to be ranked below Auburn.
Posted on 11/21/24 at 1:32 pm to PrattvilleTiger
I think he’s speaking record wise especially in sec. It’s the strangest thing I’ve ever seen. Auburn is one of the best bad teams I’ve ever seen. They can beat anyone and lose to anyone. I’d love to see y’all play LsU this year. Have a feeling that game would be pretty amazing.
Posted on 11/21/24 at 1:33 pm to 3down10
quote:
Nice, I like this. I guess Miss St does deserve to be ranked below Auburn.
I just realized they have it on the site now (didn't use to). Out on the far right under "Strength of Record".
Posted on 11/21/24 at 1:33 pm to PrattvilleTiger
quote:
How is this one of the worst teams you've ever seen? We've been in every game but one. 2003 and 2007 Alabama teams and 2012 and 2022 Auburn teams are easily worse than this current team.
I wouldn't worry about idiots making stupid statements. Yes, Auburn is much better and dangerous than their record, and my Ags are about to find that out. I'll be there at JH!
Gig 'Em!.
This post was edited on 11/21/24 at 1:35 pm
Posted on 11/21/24 at 1:37 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
I just realized they have it on the site now (didn't use to). Out on the far right under "Strength of Record".
I've been most excited to have F+ back this year. I see it has rankings for the past 5 or 6 years listed now, but I'm almost positive that had been gone since ESPN bought out SP+.
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