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"BAMA would win it, but shouldn't be in it". That's the consensus.
Posted on 12/3/23 at 3:17 am
Posted on 12/3/23 at 3:17 am
"The Games Should Matter".
Translation. If someone from a major conference goes undefeated, they should be in.
So I was wrong. I thought it was clear that FSU was simply not equipped to be competitive in a playoff and would not be selected.
The actual criteria states that first you use your judgement to select the best teams and then you use the tie breakers like championships, head to head, record, etc to rank the teams.
That process would look somethING like this.
1. Teams realistically capable of winning the playoff.
Bama
Michigan
Washington
Texas
Georgia
Ohio State
Teams not capable:
FSU
All others
2. Applying tie breakers
A. Washington
B. Michigan
C. Texas.(Head to Head win, Title)
D. Bama (Title, Head to Head loss)
E. Georgia (no title, head to head loss)
F. Ohio state (no title, head to head loss)
A, B, C, D in
The main objective of the criteria has been to select the four BEST TEAMS. The candidate for "best team" is a team capable of winning the playoffs. If you look at FSU, are they realistically capable of winning the playoff? Given the QB situation, a reasonable panel would see that they would be at a grave disadvantage.
So FSU out.
[A reasonable way of doing this would be to have all 13 committee members to assign a % chance that the school could actually win the playoffs, and then eliminate the ones that were at <10%]
Ohio state is out because they are 0-1 in head to head and not a champion. Georgia is out for the same reasons.
Bama is in despite a head to head loss because the consensus is they are capable of wining it all and they are champions
The above process is what I have always thought the committee actually did. First, throw out those clearly NOT top four in terms of capabilities. Then, use the tie breakers to narrow it to four.
But for whatever reason, best four has been replaced with best record.
As a result, Bama is out and FSU, a team that clearly cannot win, is in.
It's a tough pill to swallow, but its exactly why the new playoff is a good thing.
Translation. If someone from a major conference goes undefeated, they should be in.
So I was wrong. I thought it was clear that FSU was simply not equipped to be competitive in a playoff and would not be selected.
The actual criteria states that first you use your judgement to select the best teams and then you use the tie breakers like championships, head to head, record, etc to rank the teams.
That process would look somethING like this.
1. Teams realistically capable of winning the playoff.
Bama
Michigan
Washington
Texas
Georgia
Ohio State
Teams not capable:
FSU
All others
2. Applying tie breakers
A. Washington
B. Michigan
C. Texas.(Head to Head win, Title)
D. Bama (Title, Head to Head loss)
E. Georgia (no title, head to head loss)
F. Ohio state (no title, head to head loss)
A, B, C, D in
The main objective of the criteria has been to select the four BEST TEAMS. The candidate for "best team" is a team capable of winning the playoffs. If you look at FSU, are they realistically capable of winning the playoff? Given the QB situation, a reasonable panel would see that they would be at a grave disadvantage.
So FSU out.
[A reasonable way of doing this would be to have all 13 committee members to assign a % chance that the school could actually win the playoffs, and then eliminate the ones that were at <10%]
Ohio state is out because they are 0-1 in head to head and not a champion. Georgia is out for the same reasons.
Bama is in despite a head to head loss because the consensus is they are capable of wining it all and they are champions
The above process is what I have always thought the committee actually did. First, throw out those clearly NOT top four in terms of capabilities. Then, use the tie breakers to narrow it to four.
But for whatever reason, best four has been replaced with best record.
As a result, Bama is out and FSU, a team that clearly cannot win, is in.
It's a tough pill to swallow, but its exactly why the new playoff is a good thing.
7
Posted on 12/3/23 at 4:39 am to RiverCityTider
I'm not going to have massive heartburn if we get excluded. I'm certainly not going to if Texas gets in ahead of us. We had our chance to take care of business and came up short. We have a more valid argument over FSU, but not an ironclad one. We've been shortchanged before (1966 and 1977 come to mind). In my opinion, I think we ought to make it; but there have been worse miscarriages of justice if we're excluded.
I'm just pumped we ended the UGa freight train. Three in a row and they would be tough to live with.
I'm just pumped we ended the UGa freight train. Three in a row and they would be tough to live with.
Posted on 12/3/23 at 5:41 am to SoFla Tideroller
Exactly! Plus beatingTN, LSU, the Barn, and Ga!!!!! Winning the West and the SEC!
I’m tickled to death!
I’m tickled to death!
Posted on 12/3/23 at 5:59 am to Kashmir
And ending the Georgia streak and reasserting our dominance over them. Had Geogia threepeated it would have been very bad.
This post was edited on 12/3/23 at 6:00 am
Posted on 12/3/23 at 6:08 am to RiverCityTider
Guess who has the WORST LOSS between Alabama & Texas?
Posted on 12/3/23 at 6:31 am to RiverCityTider
The question the Committee should ask themselves is who would #1 rather play: Florida State or Alabama?
This post was edited on 12/3/23 at 6:32 am
Posted on 12/3/23 at 6:40 am to RollTide1987
The only argument should be between Texas and FSU
Posted on 12/3/23 at 6:47 am to RiverCityTider
We're literally looking at a chance for a national championship or having to play Louisville in the Orange Bowl.
What a range.
What a range.
Posted on 12/3/23 at 7:21 am to RiverCityTider
I don’t disagree with you but I do think the committee will take the easy way out and put FSU in. Essentially giving either Michigan or Washington a bye into the title game. I think if they open the door to best vs most deserving people will naturally start asking about Georgia and Ohio State and honestly they should.
Regardless, this has been an amazingly enjoyable season and I can’t let the committee take that away.
Regardless, this has been an amazingly enjoyable season and I can’t let the committee take that away.
Posted on 12/3/23 at 7:45 am to RiverCityTider
quote:
The actual criteria states that first you use your judgement to select the best teams and then you use the tie breakers like championships, head to head, record, etc to rank the teams.
There is no actual criteria. In 2014, the committee wanted to put Ohio State ahead of Baylor and TCU, despite Ohio State having a much worse loss than either of those teams. Their claim was that you needed to win a conference title game to make it. Then in 2016, they put in Ohio State as runner-up in their division, ahead of a Penn State team that had beaten them, because they were "looking at the total body of work." Then in 2020, they put in an Ohio State team with six wins because "it's about finding the four best teams." Now it seems to have gone to something else. They have no official criteria and make it up on a whim, plus it's a rotating panel so there's no consistency at all.
The BCS having a mathematical formula as part of the criteria made for an objectively fairer and more transparent system. But ESPN has been dictating everything in this sport in the CFP era, and they like the committee because it gives them a reliably decent ratings show to put up on random Tuesday nights in the fall.
Posted on 12/3/23 at 8:26 am to RiverCityTider
Realistically though when did they put the 4 best in?
TCU? Cincinnati? There were better teams those years, but they went with most deserving and just won’t say what is is
TCU? Cincinnati? There were better teams those years, but they went with most deserving and just won’t say what is is
Posted on 12/3/23 at 8:29 am to SoFla Tideroller
quote:Did we though? It should be over but it’d be a massive EF-U to us by leaving them in.
I'm just pumped we ended the UGa freight train.
Posted on 12/3/23 at 8:34 am to East Coast Band
According to Wikipedia and some people on Reddit it won’t be the Orange Bowl if we don’t make it. The SEC Champ can’t play there even when the Sugar Bowl is a playoff game. Either Peach, Fiesta, or Cotton Bowl in that case.
Posted on 12/3/23 at 8:44 am to Bamafan4evr12
I'm hoping the committee watched FSU last night. FSU (IMO) has the best defense in the country. Crazy good and if Jordan Travis was still healthy, it's a no brainer that they should be in. But the fact is, even if they had their #2 QB last night, they STILL would have struggled mightily against Louisville.
Louisville, the team that got spanked at home by a very pedestrian Kentucky team. I know the media desperately wants FSU in because they like FSU and they feel bad for them having lost their really good QB. Well, cry me a river but if we're going by the 4 teams that are playing the best right now, FSU ain't one of them.
The announcers last night were very pro FSU and were clearly pulling for them and I thought the refs let FSU get away with PI all night long.
I'm not gonna lie, if FSU gets in, I'm gonna be ticked. It'd be kind of like last year, the national media was having a fit to get TCU in when they clearly had no business there.
Louisville, the team that got spanked at home by a very pedestrian Kentucky team. I know the media desperately wants FSU in because they like FSU and they feel bad for them having lost their really good QB. Well, cry me a river but if we're going by the 4 teams that are playing the best right now, FSU ain't one of them.
The announcers last night were very pro FSU and were clearly pulling for them and I thought the refs let FSU get away with PI all night long.
I'm not gonna lie, if FSU gets in, I'm gonna be ticked. It'd be kind of like last year, the national media was having a fit to get TCU in when they clearly had no business there.
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