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Old School Model - SECCG Edition : #1 Georgia (12-0, 8-0) vs #8 Alabama (11-1, 8-0)
Posted on 12/1/23 at 9:32 am
Posted on 12/1/23 at 9:32 am
- #1 Georgia (12-0, 8-0) vs #8 Alabama (11-1, 8-0)
- 4:00 PM EST, CBS
- Georgia by 5, O/U 54.5
- Vegas Score : Georgia 30-25
Note : Stats used below and in general are ONLY P5 vs P5 games and since 10/1
ORIGINAL ALL P5 TEAM MODEL
MODEL SCORE : GEORGIA 33 - ALABAMA 26
Alabama Offense
- Passing YPA (10.49) is 134% of opponents averages allowed (7.81)
- Rushing YPA (4.09) is 99% of opponents averages allowed (4.12)
- Alabama averages 0.0802 pts per yard, 109% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0737)
Alabama Defense
- Passing YPA Allowed (6.88) is 90% of opponents average (7.61)
- Rushing YPA Allowed (4.25) is 93% of opponents average (4.55)
- Alabama averages 0.0661 pts per yard allowed, 89% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0742).
Georgia Offense
- Passing YPA (9.48) is 121% of opponents averages allowed (7.81)
- Rushing YPA (5.82) is 129% of opponents averages allowed (4.50)
- Georgia averages 0.0794 pts per yard, 112% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0708)
Georgia Defense
- Passing YPA Allowed (6.44) is 87% of opponents average (7.36)
- Rushing YPA Allowed (4.00) is 87% of opponents average (4.60)
- Georgia averages 0.0592 pts per yard allowed, 82% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0721)
PREDICTION
Georgia - 33
Alabama - 26
Alabama
- 387 total yards on 66 plays (5.76 YPP)
- 241 pass yards on 27 passes (8.91 YPA)
- 146 rush yards on 39 rushes (3.76 YPA)
Georgia
- 450 total yards on 66 plays (6.82 YPP)
- 254 pass yards on 30 passes (8.46 YPA)
- 197 rush yards on 36 rushes (5.46 YPA)
- 4:00 PM EST, CBS
- Georgia by 5, O/U 54.5
- Vegas Score : Georgia 30-25
Note : Stats used below and in general are ONLY P5 vs P5 games and since 10/1
ORIGINAL ALL P5 TEAM MODEL
MODEL SCORE : GEORGIA 33 - ALABAMA 26
Alabama Offense
- Passing YPA (10.49) is 134% of opponents averages allowed (7.81)
- Rushing YPA (4.09) is 99% of opponents averages allowed (4.12)
- Alabama averages 0.0802 pts per yard, 109% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0737)
Alabama Defense
- Passing YPA Allowed (6.88) is 90% of opponents average (7.61)
- Rushing YPA Allowed (4.25) is 93% of opponents average (4.55)
- Alabama averages 0.0661 pts per yard allowed, 89% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0742).
Georgia Offense
- Passing YPA (9.48) is 121% of opponents averages allowed (7.81)
- Rushing YPA (5.82) is 129% of opponents averages allowed (4.50)
- Georgia averages 0.0794 pts per yard, 112% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0708)
Georgia Defense
- Passing YPA Allowed (6.44) is 87% of opponents average (7.36)
- Rushing YPA Allowed (4.00) is 87% of opponents average (4.60)
- Georgia averages 0.0592 pts per yard allowed, 82% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0721)
PREDICTION
Georgia - 33
Alabama - 26
Alabama
- 387 total yards on 66 plays (5.76 YPP)
- 241 pass yards on 27 passes (8.91 YPA)
- 146 rush yards on 39 rushes (3.76 YPA)
Georgia
- 450 total yards on 66 plays (6.82 YPP)
- 254 pass yards on 30 passes (8.46 YPA)
- 197 rush yards on 36 rushes (5.46 YPA)
This post was edited on 12/1/23 at 10:13 am
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Posted on 12/1/23 at 9:40 am to SummerOfGeorge
Couple things
- Alabama's rush defense is brought way down by Auburn and LSU, specifically. In those 2 games the QBs ran for 57 yards on 15 carries (Thorne) and 167 yards on 11 carries (Daniels). Beck has solid escape ability, but he's probably not going to put up Thorne's numbers (and certainly not Daniels).
- Georgia's injury situation on offense - Rutledge, Ladd and Bowers seem to all be in some state of flux. Sounds like Bowers will play (but at what level?) and the other 2 are pretty questionable.
We're going to have to do all the margin stuff well. Field all the punts (no misreads that cost us 15-20 yards), make all our field goals, no shanked punts, penalties, etc. We failed in all of these last weekend (missed FG, penalties negating TDs, a shanked punt). Can't do that tomorrow. No margin for error.
We can win the game, but we are the underdogs for good reason.
- Alabama's rush defense is brought way down by Auburn and LSU, specifically. In those 2 games the QBs ran for 57 yards on 15 carries (Thorne) and 167 yards on 11 carries (Daniels). Beck has solid escape ability, but he's probably not going to put up Thorne's numbers (and certainly not Daniels).
- Georgia's injury situation on offense - Rutledge, Ladd and Bowers seem to all be in some state of flux. Sounds like Bowers will play (but at what level?) and the other 2 are pretty questionable.
We're going to have to do all the margin stuff well. Field all the punts (no misreads that cost us 15-20 yards), make all our field goals, no shanked punts, penalties, etc. We failed in all of these last weekend (missed FG, penalties negating TDs, a shanked punt). Can't do that tomorrow. No margin for error.
We can win the game, but we are the underdogs for good reason.
This post was edited on 12/1/23 at 9:47 am
Posted on 12/1/23 at 9:43 am to SummerOfGeorge
Sorry man but UGA plays a weak arse schedule compared to Alabama
Alabama 45
Georgia 20
Alabama 45
Georgia 20
Posted on 12/1/23 at 9:44 am to biggsc
Make UGA have turnovers.
Posted on 12/1/23 at 9:46 am to SummerOfGeorge
Good stuff. 99.9% chance Au wins last week. I'll take our chances. Release the Kraken!
Posted on 12/1/23 at 10:00 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
PREDICTION
Georgia - 36
Alabama - 30
Close to a TD spread seems about right. Biggest Bama underdog number I can remember since 2008 SECCG. I actually kind of think Alabama's ceiling is higher as in if they both play their A game, Bama probably wins. But Bama's ceiling is lower. Seems like Georgia always at least plays their B game whereas Bama goes through periods of C or lower play.
Honestly, I've been a little disappointed in the lack of rat poison being offered to Georgia this week. I need more "Georgia is the unbeatable greatest team of all time" talk.
Posted on 12/1/23 at 10:04 am to SummerOfGeorge
Great stuff man. I think there are plenty of reasons for both teams to be nervous. If we play to our potential, we win... but we haven't done that consistently throughout the year. UGA has been fairly consistent all year.
I do think that the stats are skewed because of SOS, but they definitely played some common opponents better than we did. Saying that, I think that we match-up better with them than some of the other teams that we played... like LSU. If JD5 had some issues throwing on our defense and had to rely on scrambling, then I imagine the same can be said for UGA with a worse QB and worse WRs. Beck staying clean, and our offense sustaining drives will determine the game.
I do think that the stats are skewed because of SOS, but they definitely played some common opponents better than we did. Saying that, I think that we match-up better with them than some of the other teams that we played... like LSU. If JD5 had some issues throwing on our defense and had to rely on scrambling, then I imagine the same can be said for UGA with a worse QB and worse WRs. Beck staying clean, and our offense sustaining drives will determine the game.
Posted on 12/1/23 at 10:06 am to Crimson_Chaos
Milroe has to play a clean game. No hesitation when running or throwing. He is the difference. Georgia is going to score points. Milroe will have to answer those scores.
Posted on 12/1/23 at 10:14 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
since 10/1
Honestly thought it might be worse. Georgia has been rolling folks since then
Posted on 12/1/23 at 10:18 am to Glorious
quote:
Honestly thought it might be worse. Georgia has been rolling folks since then
Yep - felt like a pretty good start date for current team analysis as both teams kind of found themselves right around that point.
Posted on 12/1/23 at 10:25 am to Glorious
At what point are you going to remove that signature?
Posted on 12/1/23 at 10:53 am to beeko
Fine. Jesus
Posted on 12/1/23 at 10:55 am to SummerOfGeorge
Why did the score prediction change?
Posted on 12/1/23 at 10:58 am to RollTide33
quote:
Why did the score prediction change?
Points per yard calculation error
Posted on 12/1/23 at 11:11 am to SummerOfGeorge
I think the obvious concern is that we don't score in the red zone.
They absolutely shut down the running game.
And we cant get off the field on third down because they are consistently get 3/4 yards every rush.
They absolutely shut down the running game.
And we cant get off the field on third down because they are consistently get 3/4 yards every rush.
Posted on 12/1/23 at 11:37 am to UltimaParadox
With Jase Mclellan out I have a strong suspicion that Kendrick Law will be used in the backfield a lot. Could finally be his 2021 Debo Samuel role breakout that many have been clamoring for.
Posted on 12/1/23 at 11:37 am to SummerOfGeorge
this is not adjusted for opponent offensive and defensive fei im assuming?
Posted on 12/1/23 at 12:02 pm to narddogg81
quote:
this is not adjusted for opponent offensive and defensive fei im assuming?
It's how you've performed against a team relative to how everyone else has. Your averages are on a relative opponent curve. Running for 5.5 YPA on Vandy isn't the same as running for 5.5 YPA on A&M.
This post was edited on 12/1/23 at 12:03 pm
Posted on 12/1/23 at 12:25 pm to SummerOfGeorge
UGA has beaten 3 top 25 teams, each by more than a TD and 2 of them by 4 or more TDs.
They have not played a weak schedule.
They have not played a weak schedule.
Posted on 12/1/23 at 12:36 pm to Riseupfromtherubble
I think this is fun to speculate, but far from reality. I don't think we will do much different from the norm. We may have a few tricks up our sleeve, but to think Law will have some massively increased role in this game is a bit off in my opinion.
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