Started By
Message
Analytics
Posted on 11/13/22 at 4:20 pm
Posted on 11/13/22 at 4:20 pm
You can win and lose some games on analytics. But honestly I don’t see how you don’t cost yourself at least a game a year playing by a chart. I’m much more of a feel of the moment type call.
What’s everyone’s take on that? Would we be comfortable with this style of coaching?
It’s kind of like the new saying. You can build a team through the portal but you can’t build a program through it
What’s everyone’s take on that? Would we be comfortable with this style of coaching?
It’s kind of like the new saying. You can build a team through the portal but you can’t build a program through it
9
Posted on 11/13/22 at 4:22 pm to CorchJay
quote:The Portal is just the new JC.
It’s kind of like the new saying. You can build a team through the portal but you can’t build a program through it
Posted on 11/13/22 at 4:26 pm to CorchJay
It’s a tool. It’s meant to be used for specific purposes, not for everything. Depending on who you are, it’s either the boogy man or a crutch.
At the end of the day analytics are statistics. Gotta know how and when to use the data and when to go against it.
At the end of the day analytics are statistics. Gotta know how and when to use the data and when to go against it.
Posted on 11/13/22 at 4:28 pm to TheJones
Yes I understand that. But would this fanbase be ok with a guy that goes by the “book”
Posted on 11/13/22 at 4:33 pm to CorchJay
quote:
that goes by the “book”
No clue what that means. Not sure any coaches go 100% by their charts. I’m sure some coaches or fans blame 100% of the mistakes on them, though
Posted on 11/13/22 at 4:34 pm to CorchJay
Burn the two point chart before 10 minutes left in the 4th quarter. Have seen too many opportunities to tie or take the lead in the 4th quarter lost.
Going for it on 4th down - does it account for opponent, home field, talent advantage? How do these analytics account for how you play the rest of the game? Again seems like wait to the 4th quarter. Could be wrong. Have not seen any real success stories, though.
Going for it on 4th down - does it account for opponent, home field, talent advantage? How do these analytics account for how you play the rest of the game? Again seems like wait to the 4th quarter. Could be wrong. Have not seen any real success stories, though.
Posted on 11/13/22 at 4:37 pm to TheJones
quote:What? I'm not sure I agree.
It’s a tool. It’s meant to be used for specific purposes, not for everything. Depending on who you are, it’s either the boogy man or a crutch.
At the end of the day analytics are statistics. Gotta know how and when to use the data and when to go against it.
Posted on 11/13/22 at 4:39 pm to alpinetiger
quote:
What? I'm not sure I agree.
That’s good. I prefer being on the other side of your decision making
This post was edited on 11/13/22 at 4:39 pm
Posted on 11/13/22 at 4:48 pm to CorchJay
I’m going to go as far to say that very few, if any here (including myself) comprehend how advanced analytics are or are not utilized in college football.
Posted on 11/13/22 at 4:51 pm to CorchJay
Analytics need to be taken into context and not blindly followed. I think it can be helpful, but it's not gospel.
It's a lot like Poker. In Poker, you have players who know the math and know which play has the highest EV (expected value). If you play that hand enough times, then making a certain play will give you the biggest return (over the long haul). It's a mathematical certainty that if you make that play over 1000 hands you will come out on top at the end (even if you catch "bad beats" from time to time). This is why people always praise poker players for "making the right play" even if they lose the hand. What they're really saying is "Analytics said he needed to do this, so he did. He made the right call, even if he lost."
But, as you can see, it says NOTHING about whether that play is right in this PARTICULAR hand. This is why "gut feel" and reading the opponent still has its place in poker. Old guys like Doyle Brunson who play by feel can still win. (Doyle knows the math, too, but he still plays old school).
Football is more like the second scenario. You don't play enough football games for analytics to matter as much as some people think. In poker, a pro will play tens of thousands of hands, so it makes more sense to go by "the math."
So a coach needs to think about the "situation." If your defense is killing it that particular game, going for it on 4th (even when the book says to) probably doesn't make as much sense. All the book tells you is what is the highest probability - but probability isn't 100%.
It's a lot like Poker. In Poker, you have players who know the math and know which play has the highest EV (expected value). If you play that hand enough times, then making a certain play will give you the biggest return (over the long haul). It's a mathematical certainty that if you make that play over 1000 hands you will come out on top at the end (even if you catch "bad beats" from time to time). This is why people always praise poker players for "making the right play" even if they lose the hand. What they're really saying is "Analytics said he needed to do this, so he did. He made the right call, even if he lost."
But, as you can see, it says NOTHING about whether that play is right in this PARTICULAR hand. This is why "gut feel" and reading the opponent still has its place in poker. Old guys like Doyle Brunson who play by feel can still win. (Doyle knows the math, too, but he still plays old school).
Football is more like the second scenario. You don't play enough football games for analytics to matter as much as some people think. In poker, a pro will play tens of thousands of hands, so it makes more sense to go by "the math."
So a coach needs to think about the "situation." If your defense is killing it that particular game, going for it on 4th (even when the book says to) probably doesn't make as much sense. All the book tells you is what is the highest probability - but probability isn't 100%.
Posted on 11/13/22 at 4:55 pm to CorchJay
Is this thread about analytics or the transfer portal?
Posted on 11/13/22 at 5:04 pm to CorchJay
I get going by the "feel" more than the analytics. I think you get into dangerous territory when you try to go both ways. Either stick to analytics or feel, you start mixing and matching and you'll end up with some head-scratching calls.
Posted on 11/13/22 at 6:04 pm to CorchJay
quote:
You can win and lose some games on analytics. But honestly I don’t see how you don’t cost yourself at least a game a year playing by a chart. I’m much more of a feel of the moment type call.
The problem is that it is just as bad to always “go for it” as it is to “never go for it.”
I agree with you. You have to consider whether you are at home, on the road, time left in game, score.
Kiffen always going for it on fourth and short is dumb. Ole Miss was 0-0 and went for it on fourth and almost 2 with an almost automatic FG that would have given them an early lead at 3-0.
To me, I think if you are fourth and 1 at opponent 40 yard line and you are the more physical team you go for it.
If you are well inside FG range, you kick unless down 12 with less than 10 minutes to go in game.
Never chase a point until less than late in third quarter.
If a FG puts you up by 8 or more, kick it.
Most of these risk should be taken after halftime so you can see how the teams are playing and how the game is evolving.
Posted on 11/13/22 at 6:13 pm to TheJones
In the NFL the prevailing thought is that you need to follow the analytics 100% for it to be worth it. Like playing blackjack
Posted on 11/13/22 at 6:17 pm to auburnnyc94
1 game doesn’t ruin the season in the NFL. It does for some college teams.
Posted on 11/13/22 at 6:39 pm to auburnnyc94
quote:
follow the analytics 100% for it to be worth it.
That's what I'm saying. Can't do it half way.
Posted on 11/13/22 at 6:40 pm to CorchJay
There’s a medium but it seems like football has gone backwards
Page 1 of 1
Latest Auburn News
Popular
Back to top
Follow SECRant for SEC Football News