Yard Per Play Model Prediction - #6 Alabama @ #10 LSU

I only used the last 3 games for LSU due to their coaching change and how they've settled into things since basically the Tennessee game. I only used Alabama's road games since the splits are so big. So, this entire thing is based on:
(a) LSU's performance vs Tennessee, @ Florida, Ole Miss compared to those 3 teams yearly performance vs every other P5 opponent
(b) Alabama's performance @ Texas, @ Arkansas and @ Tennessee compared to those 3 teams yearly performance vs every other P5 opponent.

Vegas
- Alabama -13.5
- Total of 56.5
- Vegas estimated score : Alabama 35 - LSU 22


YPP Model (Alabama away vs LSU last 3)

Alabama : 41
LSU : 33

Alabama
- 72 plays for 534 yards (7.42 YPP)
- 42 passes for 336 yards (8.01 YPA)
- 30 rushes for 198 yards (6.60 YPA)

LSU
- 73 plays for 451 yards (6.17 YPP)
- 36 passes for 321 yards (8.93 YPA)
- 37 rushes for 129 yards (3.49 YPA)


Penalties are baked into these numbers in the "points per yard" metric that determines how many points you score per offensive yard gained. Obviously, if you have a lot of offensive penalties, that would negatively effect your point per yard offensive number because you'd need more yards to score a point. Flip on defense.



Now - if you ONLY include the last 2 games for LSU - @ Florida and vs Ole Miss and compare it to our road performances, then you get into close game territory. Very close game territory. However, that's a tiny sample size and is a bit hard to judge.


Vegas
- Alabama -13.5
- Total of 56.5
- Vegas estimated score : Alabama 35 - LSU 22


YPP Model (Alabama away vs LSU last 2)

Alabama : 39.4
LSU : 39.3

Alabama
- 73 plays for 534 yards (7.31 YPP)
- 46 passes for 370 yards (8.01 YPA)
- 27 rushes for 164 yards (6.09 YPA)

LSU
- 73 plays for 487 yards (6.67 YPP)
- 31 passes for 320 yards (10.31 YPA)
- 42 rushes for 167 yards (3.98 YPA)




If you used the entire season for both teams, it would probably spit out a number very similar to the vegas line (maybe a bit heavier on Alabama). If you used Alabama's last 4 games w/ Bryce, you'd probably have Alabama around -10.

Basically, LSU's shot to win is for Alabama to self destruct with penalties (see every road game), play bad pass defense (see Texas/Tennessee) and for them to play at the same level they did the last 2 weeks. Some may look at LSU's splits and say "well if they are throwing for 10.3 YPA why don't they throw 6-7 more times and run 6-7 times less." The answer is, I don't think they can operate that way. They can't just drop back and throw it 45 times like Alabama can with Bryce. Daniels is going to tuck and run 30% of those anyway, and he has to work in the rhythm of an offense. If they jacked up attempts to 40 I'm very confident his YPA would drop significantly.

And Bryce's are raised in situation #2 because in a game like that I'd assume we play like we did in Knoxville where we put the game in his hands and he throws more than average.