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Alabama vs Tennessee Projections - SOGa+ & Yard Per Play vs Opponent Avg Methods
Posted on 10/12/22 at 4:55 pm
Posted on 10/12/22 at 4:55 pm
quote:
Current Vegas Line : Alabama -7, 66.5 Total
Vegas Implied Score
Alabama - 37
Tennessee - 30
quote:
SOGa+ Method
Alabama - 35
Tennessee - 27
This includes all the Texas A&M data and obviously every game before that (so prediction is based on mostly Bryce numbers aka Bryce playing the game)
quote:
Yard Per Play vs Opponent YPP Averages (what I've done the last few years)
I removed our offensive performance vs A&M since it isn't really relevant given the personnel and scheme (bumps up rush yards, bumps down pass yards) assuming Bryce plays.
This assumes Bryce plays but that we run the ball a little more than we probably would under Bryce 100% conditions.
Alabama - 36
Tennessee - 30
Alabama Yardage
Total Yards : 499 yards on 70 plays (7.12 Yards Per Play)
Pass Yards : 270 yards on 30 attempts (8.99 YPA)
Rush Yards : 229 yards on 40 attempts (5.73 YPA)
Tennessee Yardage
Total Yards : 403 yards on 72 plays (5.60 Yards Per Play)
Pass Yards : 285 yards on 39 attempts (7.31 YPA)
Rush Yards : 118 yards on 33 attempts (3.58 YPA)
quote:
Yard Per Play vs Opponent YPP Averages (what I've done the last few years)
This assumes Bryce plays and we just air it out
Alabama - 40
Tennessee - 30
Alabama Yardage
Total Yards : 548 yards on 70 plays (7.82 Yards Per Play)
Pass Yards : 404 yards on 45 attempts (8.99 YPA)
Rush Yards : 143 yards on 25 attempts (5.73 YPA)
Tennessee Yardage
Total Yards : 403 yards on 72 plays (5.60 Yards Per Play)
Pass Yards : 285 yards on 39 attempts (7.31 YPA)
Rush Yards : 118 yards on 33 attempts (3.58 YPA)
This post was edited on 10/12/22 at 5:02 pm
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Posted on 10/12/22 at 5:10 pm to SummerOfGeorge
SOG, Thanks for all the research you do with these stat outcomes and predictions. I look forward to them. Appreciate it!
Posted on 10/12/22 at 5:41 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I'm not greedy. I'll take any one of them right now, no questions asked.
Posted on 10/12/22 at 5:50 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Rushing Stats for Alabama's Power 5 games NOT including Sacks OR Garbage Time (which are included in Pass Yardage like the NFL)
vs Texas : 22 rushes, 166 yards, 7.55 YPA
vs Vanderbilt : 14 rushes, 77 yards, 5.50 YPA
vs Arkansas : 34 rushes, 228 yards, 6.71 YPA
vs Texas A&M : 47 rushes, 311 yards, 6.62 YPA
Pretty incredible. We're averaging 143% of opponent yard per rush averages allowed vs P5 teams in non-garbage time.
vs Texas : 22 rushes, 166 yards, 7.55 YPA
vs Vanderbilt : 14 rushes, 77 yards, 5.50 YPA
vs Arkansas : 34 rushes, 228 yards, 6.71 YPA
vs Texas A&M : 47 rushes, 311 yards, 6.62 YPA
Pretty incredible. We're averaging 143% of opponent yard per rush averages allowed vs P5 teams in non-garbage time.
Posted on 10/13/22 at 9:27 am to SummerOfGeorge
Gibbs is a special player. Makes me wonder if Saban might rethink his RB recruiting strategy a little going forward and look for a flat out speed back every other class. I think Miller and Young can run but probably not as quick to hit top gear as Gibbs.
People like to make the Kamara comparison but he looks a lot more like McCaffery to me. Alvin doesn't have that top end speed or 0-60 but has elite contact balance, probably due to his 220 pound frame. CMC has that ability to be at full speed from the get go and make cuts without slowing down
People like to make the Kamara comparison but he looks a lot more like McCaffery to me. Alvin doesn't have that top end speed or 0-60 but has elite contact balance, probably due to his 220 pound frame. CMC has that ability to be at full speed from the get go and make cuts without slowing down
Posted on 10/13/22 at 9:34 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
vs Texas : 22 rushes, 166 yards, 7.55 YPA
vs Vanderbilt : 14 rushes, 77 yards, 5.50 YPA
vs Arkansas : 34 rushes, 228 yards, 6.71 YPA
vs Texas A&M : 47 rushes, 311 yards, 6.62 YPA
Pretty incredible. We're averaging 143% of opponent yard per rush averages allowed vs P5 teams in non-garbage time.
You think their pass D has been bad so far, what happens if their reliable rushing defense starts getting gashed a bit?
This post was edited on 10/13/22 at 9:35 am
Posted on 10/13/22 at 9:45 am to Glorious
quote:
You think their pass D has been bad so far, what happens if their reliable rushing defense starts getting gashed a bit?
Is UT’s Rush defense good or are the stats skewed because you have QBs like Richardson throwing all over them?
Posted on 10/13/22 at 9:48 am to FairhopeTider
I think it's pretty solid but it's not UGA 2021 or anything.
They've played 3 Power 5 games
RBs vs TN
Pitt - 30 carries, 168 yds, 5.6 YPA
Florida - 25 carries, 79 yds, 3.2 YPA
LSU - 12 carries, 17 yds, 1.4 YPA
LSU already has a suspect OL and was down both their tackles, plus going down big early due to special teams.
They've played 3 Power 5 games
RBs vs TN
Pitt - 30 carries, 168 yds, 5.6 YPA
Florida - 25 carries, 79 yds, 3.2 YPA
LSU - 12 carries, 17 yds, 1.4 YPA
LSU already has a suspect OL and was down both their tackles, plus going down big early due to special teams.
This post was edited on 10/13/22 at 9:52 am
Posted on 10/13/22 at 9:50 am to FairhopeTider
quote:
Is UT’s Rush defense good or are the stats skewed because you have QBs like Richardson throwing all over them?
Seemingly very good. They are like 8th in the country in yards per rush allowed. They have not faced a running back like Gibbs though. Pitt’s Israel Abanikanda is good and he ran for 154 on 25 carries (6.2) with a 76 yard TD
This post was edited on 10/13/22 at 9:53 am
Posted on 10/13/22 at 1:06 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I think Bryce plays Saturday anyway, and I probably know the answer to this question already, but… is there enough meaningful input at this point to make any kind of of reasonable projections based on Milroe’s production? I’m guessing the limited number of “non-garbage time” snaps overall and unusually high number of TO’s from TAMU would skew those projections pretty significantly.
Posted on 10/13/22 at 1:45 pm to Riseupfromtherubble
We recruited Gibbs hard out of high school.
Posted on 10/13/22 at 1:47 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
37-30; 35-27; 40-30; 36-30
So what you're saying is have lots of alcohol on hand for the nerves. Gotcha.
Posted on 10/13/22 at 1:58 pm to PCRammer
May sound crazy but saban I think will use last weeks escape to hyper motivate this team. Assuming Bryce plays I dont think we have anything to worry about.
Posted on 10/13/22 at 7:15 pm to PCRammer
Like every game we play on the road. It will have its moments lol
Posted on 10/13/22 at 7:19 pm to Riseupfromtherubble
quote:
People like to make the Kamara comparison but he looks a lot more like McCaffery to me
Jamaal Charles is the name for me. Almost identical size, speed, and cutting ability.
Gibbs is a much better WR though.
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