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One glaring question I have about the game Saturday

Posted on 10/3/21 at 10:34 pm
Posted by auzach91
Marietta, GA
Member since Jan 2009
40941 posts
Posted on 10/3/21 at 10:34 pm
Why the frick did we not go for 2? I’ve tried to look at it from every angle but can’t figure it out. Maybe someone smarter than me can tell me? Obviously it all worked out but not sure why you wouldn’t in that situation. Is there not anyone on staff that can say wtf are we doing rn?
Posted by Weagle25
THE Football State.
Member since Oct 2011
47316 posts
Posted on 10/3/21 at 10:40 pm to
Score a touchdown with 3 minutes left.

Possible outcomes are up by 4 (failed 2 Pt), 5 (XP), 6 (successful 2 Pt).

So say you go for 2, best possible outcome is up by 6 which doesn’t really do much for you. Basically hoping they miss an XP.

However if you don’t get it, and they score with time on the clock, a FG would only tie it instead of win it.

To me, the negative out weighs the positive in that situation.
Posted by AA7
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2009
27971 posts
Posted on 10/3/21 at 10:40 pm to
Scenario 1: We go for two and get it, it puts us up by 6.
Scenario 2: We go for two and don’t get it then we are up 4.

Either way they have to score a TD and will have the lead if they do, but in the first scenario if they answered with a TD we only need a FG to win whereas in the second scenario the FG only ties.
Posted by AA7
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2009
27971 posts
Posted on 10/3/21 at 10:41 pm to
Weagle beat me to it. What you risk outweighs what you gain.
Posted by RockyMtnTigerWDE
War Damn Eagle Dad!
Member since Oct 2010
107220 posts
Posted on 10/3/21 at 11:37 pm to
Because our coach understands what he needed in that situation. I know it’s weird but get used to it.
Posted by PrisonMike
Member since Jan 2015
1533 posts
Posted on 10/4/21 at 12:37 am to
I'm willing to be convinced otherwise, but not by the logic above. Everything you guys wrote is circular. I'm in the OPs camp until a solid explanation can be proffered. 'You're too dumb to understand' isn't going to cut it.
Posted by Weagle25
THE Football State.
Member since Oct 2011
47316 posts
Posted on 10/4/21 at 12:44 am to
quote:

Everything you guys wrote is circular

What?

quote:

You're too dumb to understand' isn't going to cut it.

What?


Lay out your case for going for two
This post was edited on 10/4/21 at 12:53 am
Posted by BranTheHuman2
Los Angeles
Member since Jun 2019
592 posts
Posted on 10/4/21 at 1:21 am to
quote:

'You're too dumb to understand' isn't going to cut it.


Idk man, for you, I think it's going to have to

Posted by bluedragon
Birmingham
Member since May 2020
7989 posts
Posted on 10/4/21 at 6:46 am to
quote:

I'm willing to be convinced otherwise, but not by the logic above. Everything you guys wrote is circular. I'm in the OPs camp until a solid explanation can be proffered. 'You're too dumb to understand' isn't going to cut it.


Simple ...I'll slow so you get it.

Kick extra point. Now they need a touchdown to win.

Make two...still a touchdown to win. NOTHING GAINED

Miss two ....now they need a field goal to tie.

If we had missed.

LSU changes their strategy to at least get into position to tie with a field goal.

Overtime or

LSU scores a touchdown and we have to get into position to score a field goal .....to tie.

Odds far greater to shut LSU down after the extra point.

Posted by aubierawks
anniston al
Member since Mar 2018
173 posts
Posted on 10/4/21 at 8:05 am to
also i read where lsu leads the sec in sacks. it might have been nationally but my memory fails me and it is too soon to be googling things. i need more coffee.
Posted by Weagle25
THE Football State.
Member since Oct 2011
47316 posts
Posted on 10/4/21 at 8:11 am to
quote:

bluedragon

If you’re going to be condescending to him then you should at least get your post right which you did not.

We were up by 4 before kicking the extra point. LSU couldn’t have tied with a FG.
Posted by jangalang
Member since Dec 2014
45310 posts
Posted on 10/4/21 at 8:18 am to
The only logic in going for 2 is the 0.00993 percent chance of blocking an extra point and going to overtime.

In the NFL where the XPs aren’t freebies I imagine every coach would be going for two then
Posted by Broadside Bob
Atlanta, GA
Member since Dec 2012
1425 posts
Posted on 10/4/21 at 8:29 am to
quote:

Possible outcomes are up by 4 (failed 2 Pt), 5 (XP), 6 (successful 2 Pt).

So say you go for 2, best possible outcome is up by 6 which doesn’t really do much for you. Basically hoping they miss an XP.

However if you don’t get it, and they score with time on the clock, a FG would only tie it instead of win it.

To me, the negative out weighs the positive in that situation.


One more possible (albeit unlikely outcome). Go for two and fumble/interception goes the other way. Now you're only up by 2 so an LSU FG wins it for them. That could happen if you take the kick too, but much less likely.
This post was edited on 10/4/21 at 12:04 pm
Posted by FearlessFreep
Baja Alabama
Member since Nov 2009
18454 posts
Posted on 10/4/21 at 8:37 am to
Practically everyone ITT is wrong.

Here’s the explanation (I’m only looking for the rationale why we DIDNT go for two):

We score the TD, kick the PAT to go up 24-19. LSU has to score a TD to win.

If they score, and there’s time left on the clock, they would probably go for 2, because there’s no downside if they don’t make it - they would be up by 1 if they missed vs being up by 2 if they kicked the PAT. Either way, a FG beats them. But if they make it, they’re up by 3, so a FG only ties.

In the hypothetical cases, had we gone for 2 and made it, all they would need to win is a PAT, by their kicker who is almost certainly a lock for the Lou Groza this year. Likewise, if we missed our attempt, they still win with a TD, only this time their PAT puts us back in the situation where a FG by us would only force O/T, not win it in regulation.

Throw in the assumption that our offense has a handful of “do or die” 2-point conversion plays that Harsin/Bobo would prefer to keep in reserve for when they would give us a clearcut competitive advantage (like, in a third O/T) rather than “waste” them in a virtually meaningless situation.

I completely agreed with the decision. While going for 2 “made sense” from a hypothetical perspective, it simply wasn’t worth the downsides - especially since we were on a roll of momentum, and missing a PAT sort of breaks that up a bit.

ETA: Broadside makes an excellent point that I didn’t consider. All the more reason to take the kick.
This post was edited on 10/4/21 at 8:40 am
Posted by AUDevil
Somewhere
Member since Jul 2016
704 posts
Posted on 10/4/21 at 8:44 am to
I agree with the OP as you guys act like there was still 4 or 5 minutes on the clock. As the game was playing out, hardly enough time for them to score and us put together a drive to try and kick a field goal. Unless you're worried about them returning the kick off or scoring on a bomb on the 1st or 2nd play?
Posted by IAmNERD
Member since May 2017
21708 posts
Posted on 10/4/21 at 8:52 am to
quote:

until a solid explanation can be proffered. 'You're too dumb to understand' isn't going to cut it.

Don't think that's what either of them said at all.
Posted by RandySavage
Member since May 2012
33557 posts
Posted on 10/4/21 at 9:04 am to
quote:

Simple ...I'll slow so you get it.


[img]Miss two ....now they need a field goal to tie.[/img]

No.

If you're going to be a smartass at least know what you're talking about.
Posted by AA7
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2009
27971 posts
Posted on 10/4/21 at 9:13 am to
quote:

I agree with the OP as you guys act like there was still 4 or 5 minutes on the clock

There was over 3 minutes left and we still had all three timeouts. Meaning there was a significantly greater chance of them scoring and us still having time to get in FG position than praying that the best kicker in the country missed an XP.
Posted by Pettifogger
I don't really care, Margaret
Member since Feb 2012
83575 posts
Posted on 10/4/21 at 9:22 am to
quote:

If you’re going to be condescending to him then you should at least get your post right which you did not.

We were up by 4 before kicking the extra point. LSU couldn’t have tied with a FG.


Yeah I was excited to see his step by step breakdown (I like it when people oversimplify and walk through when dealing with people not following)

So it was particularly frustrating to see it botched so badly
Posted by Pettifogger
I don't really care, Margaret
Member since Feb 2012
83575 posts
Posted on 10/4/21 at 9:25 am to
quote:

I agree with the OP as you guys act like there was still 4 or 5 minutes on the clock. As the game was playing out, hardly enough time for them to score and us put together a drive to try and kick a field goal. Unless you're worried about them returning the kick off or scoring on a bomb on the 1st or 2nd play?



To me it's simply "which is more likely" and I don't really care which way we went on that judgment call

- Likelihood of making the 2pt, them scoring and missing the XP with 30 seconds left is a very unlikely sequence

- Likelihood of them scoring a TD and us getting a FG to tie is likewise very unlikely

Given it was LSU at TS, weird shite happens (in their favor) so the idea of them returning a kick for TD or something may push me toward the route Harsin took. But ultimately given the time remaining I don't think there was a clear strategic winner so I don't think anyone should really care which way the staff went.

The overarching point here, however, is that there was a bonafide reason for not going for 2, we can disagree if it was the right call or not.
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