re: Let’s Call Those MF’n Hogs: Basketball edition

Arkansas is going to lose by 6

94-88

It's not gameday

Nvm, lady backs play state

Pig

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I know nothing about auburn basketball so any enlightment would be appreciated

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Well let me learn you something

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Offense

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Quick Trends/Notes
-Auburn is #12 nationally in FT% (out of nowhere after #281 in 2016)
-AU is #91 in % of pts from 3FG, #67 in FT
-AU is #5 nationally in Offensive Rebound%

Transition: Auburn scores a significant amount of points in transition. All 5 positions are extremely athletic/mobile and ready to run the floor. Most transition points come from turnovers or long rebounds, rebounds around the rim generally lead to AU setting up the half court offense

Half Court Offense: Auburn's half court offense is predominately a modified flex. These offenses use "flex screens" (read off ball screens) to free up players to make cuts to the hoop or receive the ball with space to work with. It is also common to "screen the flex screener" or "down screens" which opens up post players at hte top of the key and often leads to open corner 3s by our guards

Pros:
-Defense constantly chasing off ball movement tiring them
-Frequently creates mismatches when defense switches (and leaves guys open when switching fails)
-Allows Auburn to control tempo/slow down the game
-Doesn't rely on any individual player to make plays

Cons:
-A lot of passing can lead to turnovers
-Poor shooting makes it a little garbage
-Sometimes is very predictable

Key Offensive Players

PG - So. Jared Harper 5'10 12.6ppg 5.4apg 42.6% 3FG KenPom 124.3 ORTG (Generally >100 is solid)
The 5'10 Harper is a poor man's JJ Frazier that can shoot at this point in his career. Harper has been great beating the press, drive & dish (#76 in assist rate) and drawing fouls (#248 fouls drawn/48). While Harper struggles finishing at the rim on drives (32.7% 2FG) he rarely goes unfouled as a gust of wind knocks him down. Harper also has beyond NBA 3 range and isn't afraid to pull the trigger. It's a coinflip if he is going to go 4-6 or 0-5 as he has 7 games >.500 3FG and 7 games <.500 3FG

SG - Jr. Bryce Brown 6'3 15.9ppg** Leading Scorer KenPom 118 ORTG
[i]Bryce Brown was the #1 3FG% shooter in SEC conference play last year at 46.6% 3FG (50+% 3FG in Feb/Mar). You may remember Bryce Brown from the 2016 W vs Arkansas where he hit 9-14 3FG. While Bryce is still that gunslinging 3FG shooter (8.7att/game, minimum 7attempts every game), he has shown an added the dribble drive/pull up jumper this year.

While Brown is 'more' consistent this year, he still has some off games and isn't afraid to shoot out of a slump. (6games <30% 3FG)


SF Mustapha Heron 6'5 15.8ppg 5.5rpg KenPom ORtg 108.6

The former 5* and returning leading scorer, Heron is probably our best all around offensive player. Heron though has been in a funk this season, consistently shooting top of the key long 2s + his 3FG% dropping from 42.3% to 29.2%. Even still, Heron at 6'5 225lb is a handful to guard and is #68 nat'l in fouls drawn per 40min. If Heron is "on" though, watch out as everything from good to bad shots will start falling for him

Starting PF DeSean Murray 6'3 225 10.6ppg 7.3rpg OffRebound% Nat'l #56 KenPom ORtg 112.5

Don't let his size fool you, Murray is a monster athlete and plays big/crafty in the post. He is extremely skilled in post offense, has a soft touch on post shots, can drive the lane effectively and passes well. He can be a matchup problem as most big men aren't used to post players effectively slithering in and around them

Backup PF - Fr. Chuma Okeke 6'8 230kb 8.4ppg 6rpg 42.9% 3FG KenPom ORtg 130.6 (#41 Nationally) OffRebound% Nat'l #81

Top 50 recruit Chuma Okeke is a high skill stretch 4 who plays very effectively off the bench for AU. Chuma prefers to play beyond the arc and drive to the rim or shoot a 3, but you'll occasionally see Chuma bang in the post offensively.

Center - Anfernee McElmore/Horace Spencer 6'8 Combined ~12ppg 12rpg Top 100 OffRebound%

Both McElmore/Spencer are ultra athletic big men that mostly are reserved on offense to the lob/putback roles + hitting the boards hard. These guys are extremely high motor/hustle and fight hard for those OReb + fastbreak opportunities

Spencer has shown some consistency with a hook shot that gives us a true post up game. McElmore meanwhile has started shooting some awkward looking 3s but he is 33.3%

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Defense

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Quick Notes/Trends
-#5 Nat'l in blocked shots %
-#8 Nat'l in 2FG%
-#317 Nat'l in 3FG%
-#98 Nat'l in Steal%


Base Half Court Defense: Man to Man

Auburn plays a base man to man in the half court. While we're not particularly great defensively, we've shown huge progress from '16-17 and even more from the start of the season.

Other Defenses: 1-1-3 Matchup Zone

AU often switches in and out of Man to this, especially after we use our full court press (more effective form after press is beat). This is a man2man on ball principles/off ball zone scheme. The ball handler is always under heavy on ball pressure. It is extremely easy to deploy/transition to and can often cause recognition problems for the offense. From this defense, we create a lot of turnovers and fast break opportunities

What the 1-1-3 is successful against: Star players who create their own shot or drive
What the 1-1-3 is really bad against: Patient passing along the arc, can leave shots in the short corner to corner 3 open

I wrote up about our 1-1-3 matchup on the AU board if you want a link.

Other Defenses: 2-2-1 / 1-2-1-1 FulL Court Press

Honestly, we are pretty garbage at this unless the offense gets lazy. It is more to disrupt the rythm and put pressure on opponents to rush and not recognize changing half court D deployments

Key Defensive Players

Best on ball defender: SG Bryce Brown

Bryce Brown completely shutdown UConn's Jalen Adams, who had only scored some 2-6 pts before AU started playing backups late 2H. Brown is a very aggressive, athletic and motivated defender who has had a lot of success shutting down scoring guards

The Shot Blockers & Rebounders: C Anfernee McElmore ... and C Horace Spencer + others
Auburn's successful 2FG% defense is built largely on the shot blocking ability in the post. McElmore/Spencer have extremely quick, high verticals that contest nearly any shot. Then both of them hustle/hit the boards extremely hard (Top 50 Spencer / Top 250 Anfernee D Rebound% nationally)

Anfernee McElmore is KenPom's #1 Block% player in the country. Despite playing only ~20 minutes per game, McElmore is averaging about 3.5 blocks per game. Horace Spencer at about 15minutes per game is at about 1.2blocks per game

The Crafty Defender: PG Jared Harper

Jared Harper is honestly a pretty average pure perimeter defender at best. While pretty quick, he lacks the length to consistently stay in front of defenders. Harper has learned instead to draw player control fouls. Due to his 5'10 150lb size, he is pretty quick to go flying/flopping whenever a ball handler extends his arm, lowers a shoulder or drives the lane.

The Plays Bigger than his size DeSean Murray

DeSean Murray at 6'3 is extremely small at PF but he plays like he is 6'9 250lb. Murray never gets bullied in the paint, has the athleticism to contest shots and quickness to defend all over the floor. Most importantly though Murray rebounds at an absurd rate for a 6'3 PF (21% DefRebound%)

The key to beating Murray is getting an entry pass into the low post close to the rim and simply shooting over him. Murray just rarely lets people beat his center of strong low center of gravity to get that position

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GenesChin

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Welcome to the board

NVM, I changed my post.

I’ve probably only heard the name Anfernee twice in my life and both played for Auburn

That’s the only one I’ve heard of

I still refer to Memphis as Memphis state from time to time.

I wish the Arkansas/Memphis game meant something like it use too.