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re: Arkansas football recruiting: Portal madness entering final stretch before dead period

Posted on 1/22/26 at 12:17 pm to
Posted by Drewbie
tFlagship
Member since Jun 2012
65072 posts
Posted on 1/22/26 at 12:17 pm to
You just don't understand. It's actually a really good thing our transfer class is rated 3rd from the bottom of the conference by the same service everyone is using to sugarcoat it by ignoring the context of the actual metric used.

Average Transfer Rating per On3:

1. Texas - 77.59
2. A&M - 76.22
3. Tennessee - 74. 61
4. Ole Miss - 73.19
5. LSU - 72.74
6. Auburn - 71.43
7. Vanderbilt - 71.18
8. Oklahoma - 70.47
9. Florida - 70.11
10. Georgia - 69.13
11. Missouri - 68.61
12. Alabama - 68.59
13. Mississippi State - 68.44
14. Arkansas - 68.07
15. Kentucky - 68.00
16. South Carolina - 66.64
This post was edited on 1/22/26 at 12:30 pm
Posted by STLhog
Dallas, TX
Member since Jan 2015
18947 posts
Posted on 1/22/26 at 12:35 pm to
Cmon dude. This is like a credit default swap where a ton of shitty sub prime mortgages bunched together magically turn into an upgraded AAA mortgage traunch.

What could go wrong?
Posted by Drewbie
tFlagship
Member since Jun 2012
65072 posts
Posted on 1/22/26 at 12:36 pm to
Sure we may be exactly where we always are on these lists, but it's different this time we swear!
Posted by Razorbacking
Member since Aug 2013
87 posts
Posted on 1/22/26 at 1:29 pm to
I think you need to get a better understanding of CDS.

Strictly using raw recruiting data is omitting much of the nuances necessary to get a complete picture.
Posted by UltimateHog
Thailand
Member since Dec 2011
68760 posts
Posted on 1/22/26 at 3:14 pm to
If you're having to spin a top 10 portal class just to be negative you may have a problem.
Posted by TriStateAreaFootball
Member since Dec 2024
1821 posts
Posted on 1/22/26 at 5:15 pm to
quote:

Average Transfer Rating per On3:


Yes, we have also taken more transfers than anyone else. Because there is no limit on the numbers that can be signed, Arkansas attempted to flip the roster. Every depth player that Arkansas took should not count against Arkansas when Texas wasn't even taking a fourth-strong corner in the portal.

It would be much more beneficial to use the ranking that includes the caliber of players that transferred out in order to determine whether the roster improved or not. In that "ranking", Arkansas is third. And before you say it, yes - ALL recruiting rankings are bullshite.


But the thing is, you already know this.




I can only hope to one day experience a love as fierce as your hatred for Ryan Silverfield. It's truly astonishing. Chad Morris was hate-able and unqualified from the beginning, but this guy is neither of those things.


TLDR - Can we at least let him fail like the previous 6 coaches before we troll the recruiting thread?
This post was edited on 1/22/26 at 5:23 pm
Posted by Drewbie
tFlagship
Member since Jun 2012
65072 posts
Posted on 1/22/26 at 8:37 pm to
As was mentioned earlier, Pittman had back to back classes ranked in the top 10 in the same metric y'all are hanging this class on and we won 11 games in 2 years. It doesn't matter if your transfers lost are rated slightly lower than the transfers gained when the transfers gained are still near the very bottom of the conference overall.

In terms of additions, this isn't even a top 25 class.

quote:

Yes, we have also taken more transfers than anyone else. Because there is no limit on the numbers that can be signed, Arkansas attempted to flip the roster. Every depth player that Arkansas took should not count against Arkansas when Texas wasn't even taking a fourth-strong corner in the portal.

Auburn is doing the exact same thing and ranks 6th in average transfer rating in conference. LSU only has two less transfers and is 5th. This argument only goes so far.

quote:

Can we at least let him fail like the previous 6 coaches before we troll the recruiting thread?

You can call it trolling if you want, but a recruiting class in the 40s and a transfer class that doesn't even crack the top 12 of the conference doesn't exactly scream program changer. It takes a hell of a lot more spinning to say this is anything but the already established status quo than it does to point out it's no different than before.

If you want to get excited, more power to you. Ridiculing others for being less optimistic when the metrics are right there painting the same picture they always have is a little silly though. People don't have to hate the coach or be a troll to disagree with you.
This post was edited on 1/22/26 at 9:19 pm
Posted by TriStateAreaFootball
Member since Dec 2024
1821 posts
Posted on 1/22/26 at 9:27 pm to
quote:

If you want to get excited, more power to you. [embed]Ridiculing others for being less optimistic[/embed] when the metrics are right there painting the same picture they always have is a little silly though. People don't have to hate the coach or be a troll to disagree with you.

I usually agree with most everything you post, but you've been dead-wrong on this search/coaching transition from the beginning.

Also "ridiculing others"

What exactly would you call this?

quote:

You just don't understand. It's actually a really good thing our transfer class is rated 3rd from the bottom of the conference by the same service everyone is using to sugarcoat it by ignoring the context of the actual metric used.

Sounds like ridicule to me. It's also just the definition of trolling.


Again. Give Silverfield the opportunity to fail like everyone else for the last 15 years. He's at least the most qualified coach that has been hired since Bert. If you wanna say Bobby was more qualified, then great. He's also the only Arkansas coach since 2011 that hasn't won a single game in his tenure.

- Actually untrue. Neither did Barry Lunney (who Yuracheck was prepared to give job to as well should he win a game or two)
This post was edited on 1/22/26 at 9:31 pm
Posted by Drewbie
tFlagship
Member since Jun 2012
65072 posts
Posted on 1/22/26 at 9:38 pm to
quote:

but you've been dead-wrong on this search/coaching transition from the beginning.
Based on what? Literally nothing has been proven or disproven to this point. There's no more proof he's a good hire than there is he's a bad hire. It's complete speculation in every direction. This is an odd thing to say.

quote:

Sounds like ridicule to me. It's also just the definition of trolling.
This was in direct response to someone mentioning it's good to have opposite opinions from the eternally optimistic Arkansas preseason media and poking fun at it. If you took it as a personal troll then I apologize.

quote:

Give Silverfield the opportunity to fail like everyone else for the last 15 years.
I'm going to approach it with the skepticism I've held from the start seeing as how there's no reason for me to do otherwise. I'm not convinced about the hire and need to see results before I feel differently. So far I haven't been swayed. It's really that simple. I coped myself into being the "give him time" guy during the Morris and Pittman years. I'm choosing not to do that this time around.

quote:

If you wanna say Bobby was more qualified, then great. He's also the only Arkansas coach since 2011 that hasn't won a single game in his tenure.
You're the only one bringing up Bobby man. My posts have been exclusively about recruiting. You're trying to shoehorn something into the conversation that isn't relevant.
This post was edited on 1/22/26 at 10:11 pm
Posted by STLhog
Dallas, TX
Member since Jan 2015
18947 posts
Posted on 1/23/26 at 6:36 am to
Not trying to give you shite because I’m also not sold on joining the hyper sensitive Silverdick riders but did Sam’s classes get readjusted?

Looking at the on3 site that has us top 10 rn. For 24-25, his classes are wayyyy out of the top 10.
This post was edited on 1/23/26 at 6:37 am
Posted by Johnny Carson
Member since Jul 2010
1300 posts
Posted on 1/23/26 at 7:03 am to
Posted by Drewbie
tFlagship
Member since Jun 2012
65072 posts
Posted on 1/23/26 at 9:14 am to
His back to back top 10 classes in that metric were 22-23. We went 4-8 in 23.
This post was edited on 1/23/26 at 9:17 am
Posted by Woopigsooie20
FREE HRV
Member since Mar 2010
59982 posts
Posted on 1/23/26 at 9:40 am to
I think we all agree talent weren’t our issues this year, except on the defensive side. You don’t “almost” win like 9-10 games and have no talent. Pittman just put together literally the worst staff in America in regards to coaching
Posted by hawgfaninc
https://youtu.be/torc9P4-k5A
Member since Nov 2011
55518 posts
Posted on 1/23/26 at 10:27 am to
Posted by PorkSammich
North FL
Member since Sep 2013
17177 posts
Posted on 1/23/26 at 2:52 pm to
quote:

I think we all agree talent weren’t our issues this year, except on the defensive side.


Talent wise we weren’t far off at all.

Coaching wise was a shite show, Sleepy Sam, Washed up Bobby, and Clueless TWill.
Posted by UltimateHog
Thailand
Member since Dec 2011
68760 posts
Posted on 1/24/26 at 3:32 am to
Also just in case anybody was curious 247 vs on3 accuracy for transfers....


quote:

Using PFF grades as a benchmark (available for ~20 overlapping transfers), ON3 ratings had a stronger positive correlation (~0.65) with final grades than 247 (~0.50). High ON3 scores (93+) predicted 85+ PFF grades ~80% of the time; 247's top decimals (0.95+) did so ~60%. This suggests ON3 better captured potential for top-to-mid transfers.

ON3's production-focused approach better predicted team improvements (e.g., 6 of top 10 ON3 classes reached playoffs or 10+ wins vs. 4 for 247). This aligns with analyses showing higher-rated portal classes correlated with ~60% starter productivity (400+ snaps, 70+ PFF) for ON3 vs. ~50% for 247.

For future cycles, ON3's track record in NFL draft prediction (29% more accurate than 247 in 2025 draft spots) supports its edge in talent evaluation.
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