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Week 5 Score Picks - Yd Per Play Differential Model & SOGa+ Model
Posted on 10/5/22 at 1:13 pm
Posted on 10/5/22 at 1:13 pm
Obviously ours is based on stats with Bryce.
Vols/LSU and Mizzou/Florida look like barnburners
5
Posted on 10/5/22 at 1:18 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Seems about right, although if UGA shows up like they did the last two weeks, then that game could very well be much tighter. But I'd still expect UGA to prevail obviously.
Posted on 10/5/22 at 1:22 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I don't believe any of those predictions will be close to actual.
I may be proven wrong, for the SOG predictor is generally reliable.
I think the Bama aTm game will be close, potentially the AU UGA game, too. I think UT crushes LSU. No idea about UF Missouri, other than I think UF wins moderately easy.
I may be proven wrong, for the SOG predictor is generally reliable.
I think the Bama aTm game will be close, potentially the AU UGA game, too. I think UT crushes LSU. No idea about UF Missouri, other than I think UF wins moderately easy.
This post was edited on 10/5/22 at 1:23 pm
Posted on 10/5/22 at 1:24 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Alabama 75.6 Texas A&M 7.2
FIFY
Adjusted score because Ty Simpson is starting.
Posted on 10/5/22 at 1:58 pm to Funky Tide 8
quote:
if UGA shows up like they did the last two weeks, then that game could very well be much tighter
If Auburn’s O-line wasn’t so bad, I’d expect Bigsby and Hunter to have a decent day. Georgia’s run defense looks more gettable this year
This post was edited on 10/5/22 at 1:59 pm
Posted on 10/5/22 at 2:07 pm to Glorious
Yeah Missouri gashed them on several plays. I don't know for sure, but it seemed like Missou should've ran the ball more in that 4th quarter.
Posted on 10/5/22 at 2:13 pm to Glorious
quote:
If Auburn’s O-line wasn’t so bad, I’d expect Bigsby and Hunter to have a decent day. Georgia’s run defense looks more gettable this year
I wonder if Tank regrets going back to Auburn or if they paid him so much in NIL money it offsets the damage he is likely doing to his draft stock.
Posted on 10/5/22 at 2:25 pm to East Coast Band
quote:
I think the Bama aTm game will be close
I would dearly like to know how you came to this conclusion. A&M has looked mostly horrible this season. Especially on offense. It's at Bryant-Denny. Saban and everyone on our team is holding a grudge for last season and the idiocy this summer. I don't see any reason for it to be close. If Milroe plays instead of Bryce maybe it's 38-10 instead of 48-10.
Posted on 10/5/22 at 7:28 pm to RollTide33
quote:
. I don't see any reason for it to be close.
Because we always find a way to barf up a bunch of bad plays in games like this. Games where the opponent was supposed to be great, but hasn't played as expected, our players take the rat poison, and then voila, it's a 3 point game heading to the 4th quarter.
This post was edited on 10/5/22 at 7:29 pm
Posted on 10/5/22 at 7:55 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I have a straight up pick ‘em and I don’t know about UT/LSU, UNC,MIA, and ND/BYU
Thoughts?
Thoughts?
Posted on 10/5/22 at 8:00 pm to East Coast Band
quote:
Because we always find a way to barf up a bunch of bad plays in games like this. Games where the opponent was supposed to be great, but hasn't played as expected, our players take the rat poison, and then voila, it's a 3 point game heading to the 4th quarter.
I'm not sure how anyone can predict this after watching A&M play this year. Predicting they suddenly put it together against possibly the best team in the country on the road sounds like PTSD from last season.
Posted on 10/5/22 at 8:11 pm to CrimsonBoz
I’m going all home teams there.
Posted on 10/5/22 at 8:28 pm to Marktastic86
That’s exactly what happened last year. A&M was reeling, bad loss to Mississippi State, backup qb playing like crap, no way they stood a chance. We proceeded to lay an egg and they played out of their mind. Now granted this year it’s at home vs on the road and I don’t expect us to straight up lay an egg. But to act like A&M has no talent and isn’t capable of playing us tough us stupid
Posted on 10/5/22 at 8:37 pm to BamaBy50
quote:
But to act like A&M has no talent and isn’t capable of playing us tough us stupid
Talented players isn't their issue. Their coaching and team chemistry seem to be. A&M had a lot of breaks last year (at home) and needed every one of them to win by a last second field goal. They also needed Bama to have an off night and the OC to call probably his worst game of the season.
Not saying it couldn't, but I do think it's silly to just expect all that to happen again against a team that has struggled in every single game they've played up to this point.
Posted on 10/5/22 at 8:47 pm to Marktastic86
I agree I don’t expect it to happen. But I do expect this game to be closer than people are thinking. All those 5 stars aren’t bums. Even with bad coaching they can make good plays. If Milroe starts I expect him to play good but he’ll probably make some mistakes that you expect from a guy starting his first game. Plus everybody knows this is Jimbo’s super bowl so he will coach out of his mind. This is the only game he’s been preparing for.
Posted on 10/5/22 at 8:50 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Anybody else listen to College Football Nerds podcast?
Couple of interesting things they pointed out…
A&M is giving up 111% of opponents rushing average
A&M is a 13-17 pt offense, period.
Alabama defense - % of opponent avg allowed, compared to historical norms, Bama, now, is better than uga at the end of last season—-terrifying! Starts talking about stats at 12 min mark
Alabama vs Texas A&M
Hopefully won’t need much of a passing game if Bryce can’t play.
Couple of interesting things they pointed out…
A&M is giving up 111% of opponents rushing average
A&M is a 13-17 pt offense, period.
Alabama defense - % of opponent avg allowed, compared to historical norms, Bama, now, is better than uga at the end of last season—-terrifying! Starts talking about stats at 12 min mark
Alabama vs Texas A&M
Hopefully won’t need much of a passing game if Bryce can’t play.
Posted on 10/6/22 at 5:17 pm to hnds2th
Pretty surprised at how bad their run defense is. Thought they were supposed to be fearsome up front. They did lose some good guys in the off-season
Posted on 10/6/22 at 7:17 pm to Kcstills17
quote:
Pretty surprised at how bad their run defense is.
I think they are really missing their DC.
Assuming Milroe starts, if they can stop our run game they have a shot.
If not this could be a 52-7 kind of game.
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