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re: Tide Hoops | 25-12 (13-5)
Posted on 3/17/24 at 9:14 pm to remaster916
Posted on 3/17/24 at 9:14 pm to remaster916
quote:
What are Alabama's chances of reaching the Sweet 16? I know nothing about the teams they will face.
If I had to give a percentage, I'd say around 50%. I had no confidence we'd reach the Sweet 16 before seeing the bracket, but we couldn't have asked for a better break. There's even a legit chance at an Elite 8, which I would've thought impossible. We matchup pretty well with UNC, and Mississippi State (who we matchup great against) has a roster that will give UNC issues and could be the 8/9 over 1 that seems to happen most years. There isn't any of the major matchup problems that we've had issues with until Arizona which we wouldn't see until the Elite 8.
This post was edited on 3/17/24 at 9:19 pm
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Posted on 3/17/24 at 9:22 pm to BigBird09
Charleston is no gimme, Pat Kelsey is a tremendous coach.
Posted on 3/17/24 at 9:25 pm to RollTide4Ever
quote:
Charleston is no gimme, Pat Kelsey is a tremendous coach.
There are no gimmes for a team that struggles on defense
Posted on 3/17/24 at 9:43 pm to BigBird09
Found a picture of Spokane...
Posted on 3/17/24 at 9:45 pm to BigBird09
State could knock off unc
Posted on 3/17/24 at 9:51 pm to BigBird09
More of this energy. Let's lock in
Posted on 3/17/24 at 9:52 pm to BigBird09
Think this board may be significantly underestimating how good UNC is. If MSU beats them, great. If not, Davis may go for 30 against our perimeter defense if we get there.
UNC or Purdue were the most beatable 1 seeds, but we’d still only have about a 30% chance of winning either of those games.
On S16 probability, 50% means 80% rd 1 and 60% rd 2 (actually comes out to 48% with those). I think we’re probably more in the 35-40% chance of S16 but that’s a lot better than I thought it would be!
UNC or Purdue were the most beatable 1 seeds, but we’d still only have about a 30% chance of winning either of those games.
On S16 probability, 50% means 80% rd 1 and 60% rd 2 (actually comes out to 48% with those). I think we’re probably more in the 35-40% chance of S16 but that’s a lot better than I thought it would be!
Posted on 3/17/24 at 10:13 pm to BamaBravesPackers
quote:
Think this board may be significantly underestimating how good UNC is. If MSU beats them, great. If not, Davis may go for 30 against our perimeter defense if we get there.
That’s fine. We have an All-American guard too.
Posted on 3/17/24 at 10:21 pm to BamaBravesPackers
quote:
Think this board may be significantly underestimating how good UNC is. If MSU beats them, great. If not, Davis may go for 30 against our perimeter defense if we get there.
UNC or Purdue were the most beatable 1 seeds
Just my opinion, but UNC is way more beatable than Purdue (especially with the way Edey has been officiated all year). Not saying we should be the favorites, but I'd put our win percentage against them in the 30-40% range which are pretty great odds against a 1-seed for a team that has played as poorly as we have recently.
The reason why I like the UNC matchup so much is that they play a guard that can't shoot (18%) 25 minutes a night with Bacot who is also a non-shooter (40% but has 10 attempts on the year). That allows us to be extremely creative defensively and should help with our over-helping problem. Same reason we match-up with Mississippi State so well: 2 total non-shooters (and for them less shooting as a whole).
We are bad defensively. No way around it, but we have also played an extraordinarily tough schedule, especially against elite offensive teams. Alabama has the highest average adjusted offense for opposing teams in the entire country, and part of that is all the shooting we've faced this year, and the over-helping has made us brutal against it.
This post was edited on 3/17/24 at 10:40 pm
Posted on 3/18/24 at 12:20 am to BigBird09
Pretty sure bacot has been at unc for 10 years.
Posted on 3/18/24 at 1:15 am to pioneerbasketball
I like the draw. Charleston is my second team. Been a casual fan since I lived there and attended many games in the Kresse era. Kelsey is a great coach and they have some talent. Reyne Smith can shoot the lights out. This game will come down to which team is hotter from 3.
They also very nearly took down SDSU last year in the first round. We better show up ready for a shootout.
They also very nearly took down SDSU last year in the first round. We better show up ready for a shootout.
Posted on 3/18/24 at 1:43 am to BigBird09
Was watching Andy Katz’s bracket, he is a basketball journalist of some repute. He has us in the Sweet16, beating Charleston and St Mary’s. The latter has beaten Gonzaga.
He thinks we lose to UNC. Seems we almost always lose to UNC in the Madness. They conveniently get all the Blue Blood calls against us. Our best players are immediately in foul trouble.
He has Arizona winning the West and going to the FF. I believe the Final Four is in Phoenix . What?
He has Awbarn in the SS too losing to UConn. UAB losing in the first round and Samford winning their first game against KANSAS!!
He has Kentucky in the FF losing to Purdue. FF of UConn Kentucky Arizona and Purdue
He thinks we lose to UNC. Seems we almost always lose to UNC in the Madness. They conveniently get all the Blue Blood calls against us. Our best players are immediately in foul trouble.
He has Arizona winning the West and going to the FF. I believe the Final Four is in Phoenix . What?
He has Awbarn in the SS too losing to UConn. UAB losing in the first round and Samford winning their first game against KANSAS!!
He has Kentucky in the FF losing to Purdue. FF of UConn Kentucky Arizona and Purdue
Posted on 3/18/24 at 1:59 am to My2Bits
Hop on the mcneese state pain train
Posted on 3/18/24 at 6:00 am to pioneerbasketball
The more I look at the bracket, it wouldn’t shock me if we made the Final Four. Of course, if we play like we’ve played the last couple weeks, it also wouldn’t shock me if we lost Friday.
Posted on 3/18/24 at 6:54 am to My2Bits
Great point about ref calls. I remember illinois center fouling out within 5 five minutes when they played unc for title in 2004.
Posted on 3/18/24 at 7:11 am to Allthatfades
quote:
The more I look at the bracket, it wouldn’t shock me if we made the Final Four. Of course, if we play like we’ve played the last couple weeks, it also wouldn’t shock me if we lost Friday.
As a fan of a school that has never made the final four even as a number one overall seed, I would be shocked if we made the final four. I guess y’all folks just built different. LOL
Posted on 3/18/24 at 7:19 am to Diego Ricardo
So, do they wait until after Friday's games to announce the Sunday schedule? They're making it a bitch to make plans for this weekend.
Posted on 3/18/24 at 8:46 am to Diego Ricardo
quote:
As a fan of a school that has never made the final four even as a number one overall seed, I would be shocked if we made the final four. I guess y’all folks just built different. LOL
Yea, Alabama basketball has been fairly steady in giving me heartburn and shits this time of the year, dating back to Wimp days.
Maybe our FF run happens in a year such as this. With little to no expectations of a run. Hppe so. But I'm also loading up on Tums and TP just in case.
Posted on 3/18/24 at 8:49 am to CCTider
quote:
So, do they wait until after Friday's games to announce the Sunday schedule? They're making it a bitch to make plans for this weekend.
That’s the way it has always worked. However, since we are in Spokane, it should be a pretty good indicator that we would probably be playing mid-afternoon at the earliest.
Posted on 3/18/24 at 10:13 am to RollTide4Ever
quote:
Charleston is no gimme, Pat Kelsey is a tremendous coach.
Bama doesn't have the defense to match up with anybody that is NCAAT caliber. If Bama matches up with a team that can guard the perimeter and has a semi pulse on offense they will get beat down.
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