re: Tide Hoops | 25-12 (13-5)

Pretty good. Theyre 36th on KenPom, they've been playing without Tolu Smith all year and hes their best player, I think he’s supposed to be back pretty soon.

I’ll say 8-3 as well, but I worry about 7-4 and particularly nervous about AU in Tuscaloosa given their athleticism and defense. If it’s a loose whistle, that game could be a blood bath which would favor their style.


That said, I’m not in the camp of thinking our OOC schedule was a mistake. I’d definitely take it over JMU or Ole Miss who are both undefeated with only 1 Q1 game played and ranked 30th and 57th respectively in Net. If we had just beaten Clemson, I think we’d all feel a lot better about the team heading into conf play at 9-4. 8-5 with 1 P6 win doesn’t leave much room for error (including not dropping a game to Liberty next week), but 10 wins in conf play safely gets you into the Tourney given our schedule.

Our Net is going to drop when we play close games against lower ranked SEC squads, but should hold up enough to get us in as long as we don’t implode. The hustle and effort from this team has been strong all year, and that’s good enough for me to still be cautiously optimistic that we can have a successful season in a “transition” year for us. I’m still hopeful Estrada can find himself and don’t think taking him over Q was a bad move. I shutter at how bad our defense would be with Q on the floor instead of Estrada. If Estrada can get healthy/right and Sears keeps being himself, I think the team can still do damage in March.

PS: I wonder how much Oats’ defensive focused practices have hurt the flow of the offense. I think it was probably a needed sacrifice, but wonder if things get a little sharper on offense in the back half of the year as we start having more balanced practices (unless we lose our shooting legs due to inadequate load management). The offensive stats are still good, but the team looks a bit discombobulated on offense when the game is on the line.

The SEC hasn’t been that impressive in the non conference. At all. I’d be very surprised and disappointed if we didn’t finish 12-6. Actually think we can do a game or two better than that.

What time is Reid announcing

quote:

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That’s what concerns me the most. We’re following the same pattern in each of our losses. We hit a wall and collapse.

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It’s been said by other posters before, but I don’t think Nate has figured out the rotation yet and is leaving guys without enough gas in the 2nd half. A tired Sears isn’t good enough on defense throughout the 2nd half, but our offense struggles when he’s out of the game. Estrada, Wrightsell, Griffin, and Nelson have to be able to carry the offense for longer stretches to get more guys rest. With 6-8 minutes left in the game, I’d rather be trailing by 4 with rested players than be up 7 with guys out of gas trying to “hang on.”

That said, the stretches CPA mentioned may be the times Nate is trying to rest guys. Would be curious to see who has played the most minutes during those 2nd half runs we’ve given up. It’s possible we just don’t have enough guys ready for big time CBB to play at our pace.

FACTS!!

If we would have played Arizona in Alabama then they wouldnt have shot 19 more free throws than us in the 2nd half, we would've likely shot more than them. The home team generally gets a very favorable whistle in CBB this is a main reason you dont get punished much for losing to top teams on the road.

No doubt in my mind we would beat Creighton at home or on an actual neutral court, not a “neutral court” in their best players hometown like was the case in the Purdue game.

Reid picked Bama!

Partway through the second half they showed Oats talking to the official and I read his lips as he said "they only have 4 fouls". The officials immediately called 3 quick ones on them. Then went back to calling lopsided.