re: OT: Alabama Coronavirus Thread (see link in OP for case numbers and death totals in AL)

LINK for shelter in place

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The reason Alabama's model projections are so bad are because of the lack of closure of non-essential business (ours merely closes certain categories) and lack of shelter-in-place orders.

The models take those distancing measures into account to help determine how many beds, ICU beds, and ventilators will be needed.

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Since those models were made before Florida and Mississippi made their orders, this is simply not true.

I don’t disagree with signing your petition but...

That’s not entirely why. The model posted here earlier projected that Alabama would have 6.2K more deaths than Mississippi. In the morning Mississippi had yet to issue their order. Their “stats” (cases, deaths, orders, resources, demographics) were similar to Alabama. The main reason is because Alabama listed 13 deaths yesterday but a few of those were not confirmed. And more importantly Alabama didn’t have 13 deaths at once, rather they were inputting them in all at once. So whatever algorithm took it as a massive spike in deaths. It was a big increase but not to the extent it was calculated as.

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Since those models were made before Florida and Mississippi made their orders, this is simply not true.

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The model itself states it takes those measures into account.

N.Y.C. Virus Death Toll Nears 1,400 as a Key Date Looms: Live Updates (NY Times)

Trump says he can’t confirm China’s coronavirus case numbers, warns of 'horrific' days to come (Fox News)

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President Trump said Wednesday he could not confirm the veracity of the numbers of coronavirus cases and deaths being reported by China, as he warned Americans to brace for more “horrific” days in dealing with the virus...

Trump also reiterated his somber message from Tuesday's briefing that the country is in for a hard time as it continues to battle the virus.

"We are going to have a couple of weeks starting pretty much now but especially a few days from now that are going to be horrific," Trump said.

The White House announced on Tuesday the extension of the social distancing guidelines after Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and other public health officials on the White House coronavirus task force ominously warned that even if the U.S. were to continue to do what it was doing -- keeping the economy closed and most Americans in their homes -- the coronavirus could still leave 100,000 to 240,000 people in the United States dead and millions infected.

Without any measures in place to mitigate the contagion's spread, those projections jump to between 1.5 and 2.2 million deaths from COVID-19.

To slow the spread of the virus, Trump said his administration is weighing stopping domestic flights in the U.S., although he he is reticent to do so given the economic impact and said if implemented it would only be from virus "hot spots."

He also advised faith leaders against violating stay-at-home orders and holding services amid reports of some churches holding gatherings. “If you do that you are really giving this invisible enemy a really big advantage," he said...

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After yesterday’s numbers were added, they projected us to have the 2nd most deaths in the nation by August. That just can’t be true. Our numbers were really similar in the morning to Mississippi. Yet we were projected to need like a 1/4 of the ICU beds needed in the country.

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Let me add this: if you have any reason to believe you have the disease and are feeling sick, YOUR SURVIVAL DEPENDS ON GETTING TREATMENT FAST!!!

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Says who? People ain't falling over dead in the frickin street.

These Coronavirus Exposures Might Be the Most Dangerous (NY Times) As with any other poison, viruses are usually deadlier in larger amounts.

What we know about coronavirus' long-term effects (abc news) For people who are put on a mechanical ventilator, it's likely to be several months to a year before they recover full lung function, he explained. Some may never recover that functionality.

More than 1,000 in U.S. die in a single day from coronavirus, doubling the worst daily death toll of the flu (USA Today)

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Death counts from the virus are difficult to keep up to date in the daily chaos from the virus, but the Johns Hopkins coronavirus database – whose sources include the World Health Organization, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the European CDC and the National Health Commission of China – shows that the U.S. hit 1,040 cases Wednesday at 10:25 p.m. ET. The previous high mark for a single day in the U.S. was Tuesday, with 504 deaths.

Since the virus' first appearance in the U.S. in late January, 5,116 people have died and more than 215,000 have been infected.

Some researchers say the daily death toll could more than double – to 2,200 or more – by mid-April. That figure would eclipse heart disease, the nation's No. 1 killer with about 1,772 deaths per day, according to the CDC. 

“Our country is in the midst of a great national trial,” President Donald Trump said in a White House briefing on the virus. “We’re going to go through a very tough two weeks.” ...

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Just out of curiosity, what % of the general public has , in what "they" consider, an"underlying condition"?

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In 2018, 10.5% of Americans had diabetes. 7.7% have asthma. 13% has chronic lung disease. 15% of adults have chronic kidney disease.

Alabama is always near the top of obesity, heart disease, and diabetes.