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re: Old School Prediction Model : Alabama vs LSU (preliminary)
Posted on 10/23/23 at 3:42 pm to Draconian Sanctions
Posted on 10/23/23 at 3:42 pm to Draconian Sanctions
quote:
If we can get just an average performance out of our defense I like our chances, the front 7 has come around but at this point we’re missing our first 4 corners from fall camp so there will definitely be plays to be made downfield if Milroe gets time or is able to extend plays with his feet to get guys open downfield.
I don't have confidence our offense can consistently put together a full game's worth of drives against air, led alone an average SEC defense. We'll hit a bunch of big plays because LSU isn't a great pass rush team and the secondary is a mess, but we'll also have 2-3 drives where we run up the middle for 1 yard, Milroe misses an open throw and/or Seth snaps it at his feet and throws timing off and then we can't get a 3rd and 9. It's just kind of built into things at this point.
Our defense will have to play their best game and force some field goals inside the 20s for us to win IMHO.
This post was edited on 10/23/23 at 3:45 pm
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Posted on 10/23/23 at 3:56 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Best one
Nice. Thank you, sir.
Posted on 10/23/23 at 4:12 pm to Doug Heffernan
quote:why, LSU is the worst defense we've seen since mtsu, who we hung 56 on? It's hard to overstate how bad they are
If the offense has to score 40 I don’t like our chances.
Posted on 10/23/23 at 4:17 pm to narddogg81
They made some schematic changes and the defense has improved over the last few weeks.
Alabama will obviously pose a bigger challenge than Auburn or Army, and I’m not telling you this defense will be good. But they’re reading their keys a lot better and trusting themselves and their teammates. It’s not going to be the same defense you saw against Ole Miss.
Alabama will obviously pose a bigger challenge than Auburn or Army, and I’m not telling you this defense will be good. But they’re reading their keys a lot better and trusting themselves and their teammates. It’s not going to be the same defense you saw against Ole Miss.
Posted on 10/23/23 at 4:22 pm to Draconian Sanctions
Are y’all letting Harold Perkins do Harold Perkins things yet?
Posted on 10/23/23 at 4:22 pm to Draconian Sanctions
quote:no, you played Auburn and Army, 2 terrible offense
They made some schematic changes and the defense has improved over the last few weeks.
Posted on 10/23/23 at 4:28 pm to narddogg81
If that’s what you’re any to tell yourself then that’s fine but it’s not true. They’ve graduated from horrible to merely bad. We’ll see if they can continue getting better, I’m optimistic the front 7 can, pessimistic on the secondary.
Posted on 10/23/23 at 4:29 pm to Glorious
They’ve got him in a hybrid SAM/nickel role. He’s looked a lot more comfortable but he’s such a tweener physically.
Posted on 10/23/23 at 4:30 pm to narddogg81
Auburn and Army's offenses are in the bottom 40 of the country
Army's is in like the bottom 10-15 lol
Army's is in like the bottom 10-15 lol
Posted on 10/23/23 at 4:48 pm to HighTide_ATL
Yeah and you realize there were plenty of self imposed problems that needed addressing as well, right?
Posted on 10/23/23 at 5:13 pm to Draconian Sanctions
I realize you just played two really bad offenses so one should consider this heavily when attempting to assess how much “defensive improvement” has taken place
This post was edited on 10/23/23 at 5:14 pm
Posted on 10/23/23 at 5:19 pm to HighTide_ATL
I know you understand reading keys and executing plays has next to nothing to do with the quality of opponent. I can watch the games and see they’re doing a much better job at that. It started in the second half against Missouri, who has a pretty good offense.
Happy to go deeper and talk real X’s and O’s, but if you just want an echo chamber where you tell each other what you want to hear that’s fine too.
Happy to go deeper and talk real X’s and O’s, but if you just want an echo chamber where you tell each other what you want to hear that’s fine too.
Posted on 10/23/23 at 5:24 pm to Draconian Sanctions
Again your sample size is small and the competition you’re comparing against is abysmal, but if you want to go deeper I’m not going to stop you
Posted on 10/23/23 at 5:39 pm to HighTide_ATL
It’s a 12 game season why kind of sample size do you want?
They switched from 3 down to 4 down lineman after Ole Miss and only gave up 14 in the second half to Missou who is not an abysmal offense at all. And again I know you know there are areas a team can improve that doesn’t have anything to do with the level of competition.
Historically bad defenses don’t have 10 quarter stretches against fbs teams allowing less than 35 total points, regardless of competition. Obviously that’s not going to be the norm, but they’re improving just like Alabamas offense is improving. Denying either is myopic at best, stupidity at worst.
It’s not going to be a good defense by any stretch. Alabama will make plays and score points, but if you’re expecting the Ole Miss defense you’re going to be disappointed.
They switched from 3 down to 4 down lineman after Ole Miss and only gave up 14 in the second half to Missou who is not an abysmal offense at all. And again I know you know there are areas a team can improve that doesn’t have anything to do with the level of competition.
Historically bad defenses don’t have 10 quarter stretches against fbs teams allowing less than 35 total points, regardless of competition. Obviously that’s not going to be the norm, but they’re improving just like Alabamas offense is improving. Denying either is myopic at best, stupidity at worst.
It’s not going to be a good defense by any stretch. Alabama will make plays and score points, but if you’re expecting the Ole Miss defense you’re going to be disappointed.
This post was edited on 10/23/23 at 5:41 pm
Posted on 10/23/23 at 6:27 pm to Draconian Sanctions
The Ole Miss defense that Bama only scored 24 points on?
Posted on 10/23/23 at 6:43 pm to Draconian Sanctions
Reading keys and executing plays has a lot to do with the quality of opponent.
Posted on 10/23/23 at 7:39 pm to Draconian Sanctions
quote:
Alabama will make plays and score points, but if you’re expecting the Ole Miss defense you’re going to be disappointed.
I will give you three American dollars if you will guarantee LSU will play defense the same way y'all did against Ole Miss.
I'll make it five dollars even if you'll match that with the way y'all played offense against Florida State.
Posted on 10/23/23 at 8:48 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I suspect that Alabama tries to establish the run and TOPball the LSU offense. This a game where you hope a drunken loud night game crowd creates some drive killers for LSU and the Alabama offense does magic tricks on the game clock while cashing in touchdowns.
Alabama needs to clean up the run blocking but they've had a lot of baptism by fire this year. Texas, Texas A&M, and Tennessee were high quality DLs. Arkansas and Ole Miss are not at the same level but they do some things that stress protection. Hopefully the bye week is an opportunity to quality control then take all those lumps and turn them into a stronger finish.
I think Alabama has a path to really take it to LSU but it won't be happening if Alabama has a strong start then lose intensity (Arkansas and MSU) or start sloppy but find a groove (Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and Tennessee). They're going to have to be locked in from the opening kickoff. Would be a fantastic time for their first complete game in 2023.
Realistically, I imagine they sputter at some point and that means this game will be one that takes years off our lives.
Alabama needs to clean up the run blocking but they've had a lot of baptism by fire this year. Texas, Texas A&M, and Tennessee were high quality DLs. Arkansas and Ole Miss are not at the same level but they do some things that stress protection. Hopefully the bye week is an opportunity to quality control then take all those lumps and turn them into a stronger finish.
I think Alabama has a path to really take it to LSU but it won't be happening if Alabama has a strong start then lose intensity (Arkansas and MSU) or start sloppy but find a groove (Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and Tennessee). They're going to have to be locked in from the opening kickoff. Would be a fantastic time for their first complete game in 2023.
Realistically, I imagine they sputter at some point and that means this game will be one that takes years off our lives.
This post was edited on 10/23/23 at 8:51 pm
Posted on 10/23/23 at 9:26 pm to SummerOfGeorge
no way we score 40. we'll get beat if we need to score over 30.
Posted on 10/23/23 at 9:37 pm to narddogg81
quote:
why, LSU is the worst defense we've seen since mtsu, who we hung 56 on? It's hard to overstate how bad they are
I just have no confidence in a shootout. We better hope we win inside the red zone. Field goals vs TDs will determine the winner. Our defense has to keep them below 30 IMO
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