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re: If the rehab is what we're hearing it is what do you think about Tua using a redshirt...
Posted on 11/18/19 at 9:48 am to 14&Counting
Posted on 11/18/19 at 9:48 am to 14&Counting
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Teams are going to want to see him play after all of this.
I think they would be ok just seeing him in a pro day setting.
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Posted on 11/18/19 at 9:54 am to Funky Tide 8
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Good post, and thank you for those numbers.
Great site here that gives the total dollar value of every contract.
The #1 pick got $35M.
Posted on 11/18/19 at 10:04 am to pvilleguru
The bad news is will do nothing football related until after the draft.
I don't know if teams will risk a 1-3 round pick.
If he fall past that, then he is losing way to much money.
I don't know if teams will risk a 1-3 round pick.
If he fall past that, then he is losing way to much money.
Posted on 11/18/19 at 10:12 am to remaster916
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I don't know if teams will risk a 1-3 round pick
I'd be shocked if no one took him before the end of the second round. Especially if the teams send doctors to take a look at him they send back positive reviews.
Posted on 11/18/19 at 10:20 am to remaster916
I would expect that it could be negotiated into his contract guaranteed money upon signing and a bonus money clause based on his health in year 2. Basically, he would get a top 10 draft contract that is contingent on his health in year 2. If he doesn't make the medical evaluation and isn't able to play then he doesn't get the additional bonus money but if he does then the opposite applies. It's a win win for both player and franchise.
Posted on 11/18/19 at 10:26 am to pvilleguru
quote:
I'd be shocked if no one took him before the end of the second round
Unless it is apparent that he won't make a recovery etc someone is gonna gamble on Tua with an early pick.
Posted on 11/18/19 at 10:53 am to spacewrangler
What a rookie player makes is already set in stone based on where he is drafted. So no team will do that.
If Tua can't do anything before the draft, he is a big risk for a NFL team to take with a early round pick.
The Bengals or Dolphins could take him with the 1st pick of the 4th round, save themselves millions and Tua is stuck in a low contract with them for 4 years.
If he is going to be on a crappy team for 4 years, he best get paid early.
If Tua can't do anything before the draft, he is a big risk for a NFL team to take with a early round pick.
The Bengals or Dolphins could take him with the 1st pick of the 4th round, save themselves millions and Tua is stuck in a low contract with them for 4 years.
If he is going to be on a crappy team for 4 years, he best get paid early.
Posted on 11/18/19 at 10:53 am to Commander Data
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Unless it is apparent that he won't make a recovery etc someone is gonna gamble on Tua with an early pick.
He is still going to get drafted even without showing anything. Whether its still in the 1st round is the question. But there isn't anybody you could take in picks 20-32 that would have more value than the upside of Tua. And typically teams picking there don't need a QB that can play right away.
IOW, if one of the needy early teams like Dolphins/Bengals don't take him, teams with older vets like the Saints, Patriots, Falcons, Steelers & Chargers will be all over him.
This post was edited on 11/18/19 at 10:54 am
Posted on 11/18/19 at 11:01 am to 14&Counting
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quote:
I think healing is 16-20 weeks and total recovery is like 6-7 months.
There is no way he will be in shape to show out at the combine. Teams are going to want to see him play after all of this.
After talking to some folks this weekend and the extended amount of healing and recovery that this will take we are almost convinced Tua might need to come back. I know looking 2-3 M in the mouth says otherwise but, if he could go 1st round after a great season, why wouldn't he? Sure the injury thing could happen again but, what if it doesn't and he goes round 1? Wouldn't that be worth it? Instead of going 4th round?
I agree with most why would an NFL team take him before the 4th when he hasn't played ball in X number of months?
Posted on 11/18/19 at 11:05 am to CrimsonBoz
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I agree with most why would an NFL team take him before the 4th when he hasn't played ball in X number of months?
Because the upside is greater than the risk of those picks. If he pans out, he is a steal, and if he doesn't, you're no worse off than a draft bust that you could have taken otherwise.
People overestimate the value of draft picks outside of the Top 15, and even those guys bust.
Posted on 11/18/19 at 11:16 am to DLev45
No way I take Tua in any round without seeing him play football or at least have a smooth workout at a pro day or something if I am an NFL team. I mean say you draft him in the 4th round. And he never plays a snap bc he isn’t healthy? You totally waste a pick then.
I know most wont agree with that but the NFL is a cutthroat business. No matter how bad they clamor for QBs
But there are a few gamblers like Jerry Jones who can take a risk bc they own the team. Like Jerry did with Jaylon Smith. But most GMs can’t take too big of risks bc they are constantly on the hot seat
I know most wont agree with that but the NFL is a cutthroat business. No matter how bad they clamor for QBs
But there are a few gamblers like Jerry Jones who can take a risk bc they own the team. Like Jerry did with Jaylon Smith. But most GMs can’t take too big of risks bc they are constantly on the hot seat
This post was edited on 11/18/19 at 11:19 am
Posted on 11/18/19 at 11:18 am to DLev45
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Because the upside is greater than the risk of those picks. If he pans out, he is a steal, and if he doesn't, you're no worse off than a draft bust that you could have taken otherwise.
So what you're saying is they take a minimal loss if he doesn't pan out.
Posted on 11/18/19 at 11:37 am to Finkle is Einhorn
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No way I take Tua in any round without seeing him play football or at least have a smooth workout at a pro day or something if I am an NFL team. I mean say you draft him in the 4th round. And he never plays a snap bc he isn’t healthy? You totally waste a pick then.
Lots of 4th round picks are going to do that, anyway. You're overvaluing those picks.
In 2019, Will Grier went in the 3rd, and Ryan Finley, & Jarrett Stidham went in the 4th.
In 2018, Mason Rudolph went in the 3rd and Kyle Lauletta went in the 4th.
In 2017, Davis Webb & C.J. Betheard went in the 3rd and Josh Dobbs went in the 4th.
In 2016, Jacoby Brissett & Cody Kessler went in the 3rd and Connor Cook, Dak Prescott, & Cardale Jones went in the 4th.
I just gave you 13 QB picks in rounds 3-4 of the past 4 drafts, and there are 2 starters, a few roster fillers, and a few now playing in the XFL.
But you don't think someone would be willing to roll the dice on Tua's hip with one of those?
Posted on 11/18/19 at 11:44 am to Goldtide1
depends on where he'll go in the draft. he's still gonna go in the top 10. i'm obviously all for your scenario, but he's a qb and not a huge dual threat anyway.
Posted on 11/18/19 at 11:55 am to pvilleguru
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I'd be shocked if no one took him before the end of the second round.
Last pick of the second round was about $4.6M. Maybe $3M after taxes.
Posted on 11/18/19 at 12:37 pm to BamaGradinTn
Tua is gone in the first 20 picks I'll gladly take a bet with someone on that.
I'd be shocked if he's not top 10. He's a generational talent, look at what the Bears got out of Trubisky with the 3rd overall pick you think they wouldn't trade their soul for Tua right now?
CJ Moseley had a hip injury he's playing LB in the NFL and doing just fine. Tua's still a top 10 pick and if he falls past 10 I'm sure a team like the Bears, Rams, Patriots, Broncos would trade up, and plan on him not playing in 2020 but being their franchise QB in 2021.
I'd be shocked if he's not top 10. He's a generational talent, look at what the Bears got out of Trubisky with the 3rd overall pick you think they wouldn't trade their soul for Tua right now?
CJ Moseley had a hip injury he's playing LB in the NFL and doing just fine. Tua's still a top 10 pick and if he falls past 10 I'm sure a team like the Bears, Rams, Patriots, Broncos would trade up, and plan on him not playing in 2020 but being their franchise QB in 2021.
Posted on 11/18/19 at 1:38 pm to DLev45
They might.
But it would be pretty risky.
None of the players you listed were coming off a potential career ending injury either
But it would be pretty risky.
None of the players you listed were coming off a potential career ending injury either
Posted on 11/18/19 at 1:40 pm to Finkle is Einhorn
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None of the players you listed were coming off a potential career ending injury either
None of the players I listed was ever anywhere remotely close to being the #1 overall pick.
What I'm saying is that there is no risk in picking Tua there. None. No GM is getting fired because he took a consensus Top 2 overall talent with a 4th rounder.
This post was edited on 11/18/19 at 1:43 pm
Posted on 11/18/19 at 1:42 pm to DLev45
So not comparable right?
Posted on 11/18/19 at 1:43 pm to BamaGradinTn
quote:
Last pick of the second round was about $4.6M. Maybe $3M after taxes
Ok?
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