Early Stat Model Pick : Alabama vs LSU

The model is based on YPP averages as a % of opponents averages. So, basically, you gained 4.0 YPA rushing vs Team A. Team A gives up 3.5 YPA to P5 teams excluding you. You averaged 114% of your opponents average. Then moves down the line. I did one earlier that was just total YPP, but this one broke it out into Rush/Pass, so its a little more specific in comparing matchups (run d vs run o, pass d vs pass o).



#2 ALABAMA VS #1 LSU (BAMA -6.5)

ALABAMA : 38
LSU : 30

Alabama Stats
- 35 rushes, 127 yards, 3.62 YPA
- 35 passes, 351 yards, 10.03 YPA
- 70 plays, 478 yards, 6.83 YPP

LSU Stats
- 32 rushes, 146 yards, 4.56 YPA
- 36 passes, 316 yards, 8.78 YPA
- 68 plays, 462 yards, 6.79 YPP

The Alabama offense averages 102% of opponents rush YPA allowed and 144% of opponents pass YPA allowed. The Alabama defense allows 100% of opponents rush YPA and 85% of opponents pass YPA.

The LSU offense averages 105% of opponents rush YPA allowed and 137% of opponents pass YPA allowed. The LSU defense allows 84% of opponents rush YPA and 94% of opponents pass YPA.


As per always - a few turnovers, a few big red zone stops, etc can flip the yards per point numbers on their head and turn Bama 38-30 to LSU 35-31 very easily. The yardage and yards per play numbers are generally pretty solid, though.

Also - it will change some based on games this weekend, so I'll update after that.