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re: College Fball Playoff 5 Bubble Teams - Resume/QUAD Ranks (Bama, Miami, USC, Miss, SMU)
Posted on 12/2/24 at 12:48 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Posted on 12/2/24 at 12:48 pm to SummerOfGeorge
The committee won't punish SMU for playing a 13th game. Win or lose, they're in. A 13th data point will either help a team, or be a neutral factor.
This post was edited on 12/2/24 at 12:50 pm
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Posted on 12/2/24 at 12:54 pm to Pandy Fackler
For the sake of argument, let's say Clemson wins 49-14 and the score makes it look closer than it was. Surely there has to be a point where they back up and say let's reconsider the whole not punishing teams for losing championship games thing. I have a hard time believing that they'd completely ignore a genuine arse kicking, even if it's given less weight than if it had occurred 6 weeks ago.
Posted on 12/2/24 at 12:55 pm to Pandy Fackler
quote:
The committee won't punish SMU for playing a 13th game. Win or lose, they're in. A 13th data point will either help a team, or be a neutral factor.
Like they didn't punish Georgia last year for playing a 13th game and losing it? Oh wait they dropped them from 1st all the way to 6th.
Posted on 12/2/24 at 12:59 pm to RollTide33
Dropping a team out of the top 4 when you don't have guaranteed spots is different than dropping a team when there are 12 spots and several are guaranteed.
Posted on 12/2/24 at 1:01 pm to Robot Santa
quote:
For the sake of argument, let's say Clemson wins 49-14 and the score makes it look closer than it was. Surely there has to be a point where they back up and say let's reconsider the whole not punishing teams for losing championship games thing. I have a hard time believing that they'd completely ignore a genuine arse kicking, even if it's given less weight than if it had occurred 6 weeks ago.
Yea I think there is a threshold, especially for a team like SMU who hasn't really played any elite teams already, where they get whooped so badly that the extra game thing goes away.
A competitive loss and I think it doesn't get held against them other than seeding. A clear blowout and I think they're done. Somewhere in between (game that is close at half and Clemson pulls away to win by 17) and who knows.
Posted on 12/2/24 at 1:07 pm to Pandy Fackler
I don't think anyone can say with certainty. Again, last season proved that the committee recognizes that the ACC is a very weak conference. You'd now be looking at a SMU team who's signature win is unranked Duke & an Alabama team who's signature win is potentially the SEC champion.
There are alot of competing narratives going on with the committee if Clemson wins.
There are alot of competing narratives going on with the committee if Clemson wins.
Posted on 12/2/24 at 1:09 pm to AlterDWI
Exactly.
We don’t know and I’d rather not find out. So let’s go SMU. lol
Either way I think we are in. Opinion only.
We don’t know and I’d rather not find out. So let’s go SMU. lol
Either way I think we are in. Opinion only.
Posted on 12/2/24 at 1:09 pm to AlterDWI
quote:
I don't think anyone can say with certainty. Again, last season proved that the committee recognizes that the ACC is a very weak conference. You'd now be looking at a SMU team who's signature win is unranked Duke & an Alabama team who's signature win is potentially the SEC champion.
There are alot of competing narratives going on with the committee if Clemson wins.
Yep, there is no certainty at all.
I mean, what happens if Georgia loses 38-10 on Saturday? I'm assuming they'll still be in, but do they drop to a 10-11 seed? Are they effected at all? I have no idea.
Posted on 12/2/24 at 1:11 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Bama in great shape IMO
Posted on 12/2/24 at 1:12 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
SummerOfGeorge
Can you make a post on a prediction model for SMU vs Clemson?
That's basically the Bama game for this week (assuming of course the CFP poll matches the AP and coaches)
This post was edited on 12/2/24 at 1:13 pm
Posted on 12/2/24 at 1:16 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Alabama has to bank on overall strength of wins + general lead in most all of the computer metrics.
So basically we need Georgia to beat Texas on Saturday?
Posted on 12/2/24 at 1:22 pm to SummerOfGeorge
One thing I haven't heard anyone talk about is the potential for UNLV to make the playoff. They're 10-2 & are only a 2 pt underdog to Boise Saturday. That would truly be wild for fricking UNLV to get a first round bye in the playoffs.
What does the committee do then? UNLV would be 1-1 with the same record as Boise St.
What does the committee do then? UNLV would be 1-1 with the same record as Boise St.
This post was edited on 12/2/24 at 1:25 pm
Posted on 12/2/24 at 1:25 pm to TideSaint
quote:
So basically we need Georgia to beat Texas on Saturday?
I don't think it really matters much. Georgia isn't going to move much in rankings or computers if they lose a competitive game to Texas. If they win it certainly would help, but I don't think them losing hurts at all.
Posted on 12/2/24 at 1:26 pm to AlterDWI
quote:
One thing I haven't heard anyone talk about is the potential for UNLV to make the playoff. They're 10-2 & are only a 2 pt underdog to Boise Saturday. That would truly be wild for fricking UNLV to get a first round bye in the playoffs.
What does the committee do then? UNLV would be 1-1 with the same record as Boise St.
UNLV would probably get in as the #12 seed but clearly behind even a 3-loss ACC champ Clemson I'd guess. Boise would be out.
This post was edited on 12/2/24 at 1:26 pm
Posted on 12/2/24 at 1:45 pm to SummerOfGeorge
From my understanding, SMU is likely still in if they lose. Maybe i'm wrong as Miami was 0.7242 last week and now 0.48 but I don't know how a win + CCG loss impacts it compared to just a loss like Miami
Editing but for the sake of knowing how this lined up last week (no clue why its so big);
Editing but for the sake of knowing how this lined up last week (no clue why its so big);
This post was edited on 12/2/24 at 1:52 pm
Posted on 12/2/24 at 1:57 pm to UhOhOreo
The easiest thing for them to do I suppose is keep Miami ahead of us & just say W/L record & CCG is what matters. Then, all SEC teams can stop scheduling P4 opponents & the first month of every season will be boring as shite(even moreso than it is now).
Posted on 12/2/24 at 2:12 pm to AlterDWI
quote:
One thing I haven't heard anyone talk about is the potential for UNLV to make the playoff. They're 10-2 & are only a 2 pt underdog to Boise Saturday. That would truly be wild for fricking UNLV to get a first round bye in the playoffs.
What does the committee do then? UNLV would be 1-1 with the same record as Boise St.
If UNLV/SMU win:
1. SEC/Big Ten Champ
2. SEC/Big Ten Champ
3. SMU
4. Big 12 Champ
...
12. UNLV
Boise Out
If UNLV/Clemson win:
1. SEC/Big Ten Champ
2. SEC/Big Ten Champ
3. Big 12 Champ
4. Clemson/UNLV
...
12. Clemon/UNLV
Posted on 12/2/24 at 2:22 pm to AlterDWI
quote:
The easiest thing for them to do I suppose is keep Miami ahead of us & just say W/L record & CCG is what matters. Then, all SEC teams can stop scheduling P4 opponents & the first month of every season will be boring as shite(even moreso than it is now).
I do lean towards the idea that they want nothing to do with the 3 team SEC circus and either put SMU in if they lose ("don't penalize for extra game") or put Miami in if SMU loses ("2 losses vs 3", "exciting offense" which they keep weirdly saying).
Honestly, I'd have no complaints if one of the other 2 SEC teams got in ahead of us. I think we have the best case, but it's comparing apples to apples with the 3 of us. I'd be pretty pissed if Miami plays 0 good teams, loses 2 times and still gets in.
Posted on 12/2/24 at 2:29 pm to DLev45
Shows how dumb this system is. Clemson & UNLV could both potentially have first round byes after beating only one ranked team in the last game of the season.
Posted on 12/2/24 at 3:34 pm to UhOhOreo
My comment before kind of lined up with this.
When Miami lost last time they dropped like a rock. I assume because SMU has always been ranked lower than Miami it’s easy for them to dropout in a scenario where they lose to Clemson.
It’s all guessing just my thoughts. I think we are in tomorrow at 11. I’m feeling 99% sure.
The scenarios of SMU/Clemson I have no idea other than historically how ACC ranked teams fell after a loss.
When Miami lost last time they dropped like a rock. I assume because SMU has always been ranked lower than Miami it’s easy for them to dropout in a scenario where they lose to Clemson.
It’s all guessing just my thoughts. I think we are in tomorrow at 11. I’m feeling 99% sure.
The scenarios of SMU/Clemson I have no idea other than historically how ACC ranked teams fell after a loss.
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