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SummerOfGeorge
Atlanta United Fan
Brookhaven-Oglethorpe Station
Member since Jul 2013
43730 posts

Breakout of OU's offense by stats vs tiers of defenses played
Oklahoma's offense is incredible and they are going to score on us. Let's just get that out of the way now. However, the argument that they haven't played any defense worth a damn is also extremely accurate. S&P+, which filters out all the normal "reasons" why a BXII defense really isn't as bad as the normal stats say, confirms this point.

Image: https://i.imgur.com/dBSSiWx.png


Now, as my follow up will show, our offense has a very similar downward slope when we play elite defenses. The difference is, we won't be playing a Top 20 defense........we'll be playing one of those defenses down in the bottom chart. Oklahoma will be playing a defense in the top chart (and one that has been better and has better athletes and football players at every level than TCU, Iowa State or Texas).
This post was edited on 12/6 at 9:33 am


paul02085
Alabama Fan
Shelby, Al (Lay Lake)
Member since Sep 2006
1204 posts

re: Breakout of OU's offense by stats vs tiers of defenses played
Like u said. OU is going to score on us. We have to outscore them. Our D is not great this year. It is becoming more obvious each game. I hope we go as fast as possible. Expecting 50-40 type game


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211
tmjones2
Alabama Fan
TX
Member since Feb 2013
433 posts

re: Breakout of OU's offense by stats vs tiers of defenses played
I'm hoping that they can't get anything going on the ground early and just give up trying. Kyler is great, but if he's dropping back every single play and everyone knows it, bad things are gonna happen eventually. Picks, strip sacks, etc.

When I was watching the Texas game I couldn't believe how much time he had to sit in the pocket, it was incredible. I'm not expecting that to be the case again.

As for his running, it's time for Moses to show why he was getting scholarship offers fresh out of the womb.


SummerOfGeorge
Atlanta United Fan
Brookhaven-Oglethorpe Station
Member since Jul 2013
43730 posts

re: Breakout of OU's offense by stats vs tiers of defenses played
Here is our chart. Oklahoma is currently #89 in S&P+ defense, so right between Arkansas and Tennessee.

Image: https://i.imgur.com/7w2Wm4v.png
This post was edited on 12/6 at 9:34 am


TideSaint
USA Fan
Prattville - God's Country
Member since Sep 2008
55882 posts

re: Breakout of OU's offense by stats vs tiers of defenses played
So you're saying we will win 57-44?

I'll take it.


ChoadieMcSmalls
Alabama Fan
12,319 Posts
Member since Jul 2012
1233 posts

re: Breakout of OU's offense by stats vs tiers of defenses played
OU is also something like next to last (out of ever team in the FBS!) in red zone defense and 4 spots from last place in passing yards allowed. (last time I checked the numbers was before the TX game, though).

I mean, that's horrendous. Imagine what Bama could do to any team that's essentially the worst in the FBS at a certain aspect of the game (especially a super important aspect like red zone defense or passing yards allowed).



SummerOfGeorge
Atlanta United Fan
Brookhaven-Oglethorpe Station
Member since Jul 2013
43730 posts

re: Breakout of OU's offense by stats vs tiers of defenses played
Also, if you really want to match them up

Oklahoma vs "average" #41 S&P+ defenses

Image: https://i.imgur.com/qjsqpUi.png





Alabama vs "average" #35 S&P+ defenses

Image: https://i.imgur.com/LtglhZ4.png




Against similar defenses our two offenses have performed basically the same - with us a little better.

We had 500+ yards in every game but 2 and 400+ yards in every game except the one against the #6 defense.
This post was edited on 12/6 at 9:42 am


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41
Paul B Ammer
Alabama Fan
The Mecca of Tuscaloosa
Member since Jul 2017
2423 posts

re: Breakout of OU's offense by stats vs tiers of defenses played
What is Bama's S&P+ rating on D? Top 5 IIRC.


SummerOfGeorge
Atlanta United Fan
Brookhaven-Oglethorpe Station
Member since Jul 2013
43730 posts

re: Breakout of OU's offense by stats vs tiers of defenses played
quote:

What is Bama's S&P+ rating on D? Top 5 IIRC.



8th - which seems about right to me. Very good, but not elite.

1. Clemson
2. Michigan State
3. Washington
4. Notre Dame
5. Michigan
6. Mississippi State
7. Miami
8. Alabama


Paul B Ammer
Alabama Fan
The Mecca of Tuscaloosa
Member since Jul 2017
2423 posts

re: Breakout of OU's offense by stats vs tiers of defenses played
#8 is fine considering that Saban took his foot off the gas and played a ton of backups.


SummerOfGeorge
Atlanta United Fan
Brookhaven-Oglethorpe Station
Member since Jul 2013
43730 posts

re: Breakout of OU's offense by stats vs tiers of defenses played
quote:

#8 is fine considering that Saban took his foot off the gas and played a ton of backups.



S&P+ doesn't count that


westide
Alabama Fan
Bamala
Member since Sep 2014
175 posts

re: Breakout of OU's offense by stats vs tiers of defenses played
Nice work!


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00
CrimsonBoz
Alabama Fan
Florida
Member since Sep 2014
7076 posts

re: Breakout of OU's offense by stats vs tiers of defenses played
Honestly we all know we are better than

MSUx2
UM
Wash
Miami

Nice comparison George.


Glorious
Central Florida Fan
Mobile
Member since Aug 2014
9694 posts
 Online 

re: Breakout of OU's offense by stats vs tiers of defenses played
I dunno. I watched a few Michigan State games this year. They have an 11-1 defense but a 1-11 offense


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10
Paul B Ammer
Alabama Fan
The Mecca of Tuscaloosa
Member since Jul 2017
2423 posts

re: Breakout of OU's offense by stats vs tiers of defenses played
It's hard to come up with any mathematical model that can correctly assess yards given up in "garbage time*. The very definition varies widely. Plus some years you can afford to leave your starters in while in other years your backups need to play to provide depth. I will say that this year's rating on D no doubt exceeded everyone's expectations.


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RolltidePA
Alabama Fan
North Carolina
Member since Dec 2010
933 posts

re: Breakout of OU's offense by stats vs tiers of defenses played
quote:

OU is also something like next to last (out of ever team in the FBS!) in red zone defense and 4 spots from last place in passing yards allowed. (last time I checked the numbers was before the TX game, though).


They are 128 out of 129 in passing defense. They are .3 yards per passing play better than Houston and give up the most yards per game passing in the CFB.

That said, it looks like the best case scenario for the Bama D is to give up approximately .55-.65 points per play... that is a scary freakin' proposition.

If our offense stalls at all, we are going to be in trouble fast.

Turnovers will have a bigger effect on this game than they usually would.
This post was edited on 12/6 at 10:17 am


SummerOfGeorge
Atlanta United Fan
Brookhaven-Oglethorpe Station
Member since Jul 2013
43730 posts

re: Breakout of OU's offense by stats vs tiers of defenses played
Yea, this game is going to be a nightmare. I feel pretty confident we win........I also feel pretty confident I have like 4 heart attacks.


RolltidePA
Alabama Fan
North Carolina
Member since Dec 2010
933 posts

re: Breakout of OU's offense by stats vs tiers of defenses played
quote:

I also feel pretty confident I have like 4 heart attacks.


Only 4? Lucky man. Every time Murray passes the ball I'm going to have a little heart attack.


SummerOfGeorge
Atlanta United Fan
Brookhaven-Oglethorpe Station
Member since Jul 2013
43730 posts

re: Breakout of OU's offense by stats vs tiers of defenses played
quote:

Only 4? Lucky man. Every time Murray passes the ball I'm going to have a little heart attack.





I just really hope we come out clicking early, get a stop or two, and build a little lead.

I'll be nervous holding it, but not nearly as nervous as if we go all A&M 2013 and fall behind 14-0 after 5 minutes.


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remaster916
Alabama Fan
Alabama
Member since Oct 2012
6301 posts

re: Breakout of OU's offense by stats vs tiers of defenses played
Murray usually has a ton of time to pass, it is like no one blitzes him.

Bama has to keep him contained, but also bring pressure.


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