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Posted on 3/26/25 at 9:21 am to Alabama_Fan
Its crazy how many people are picking BYU to win big. I am loving it, can't wait to beat the shite out of them.
Obviously it's likely to be a close game, but I think it's far more likely we blow them out than they blow us out.
This Bama team has this weird perception around them. I guess it's the impression from the UF and Robert Morris games? But everyone thinks this team stinks all of a sudden, and is worse than last years team. This team would absolutely work last years. #1 in pace, top 5 offense, top 30 defense, #1 in boards, top 10 in Oboards, top 10 3pt defense, all against the hardest schedule in more than 2 decades according to kenpom. This Bama team is so much better than they are getting credit for.
Obviously it's likely to be a close game, but I think it's far more likely we blow them out than they blow us out.
This Bama team has this weird perception around them. I guess it's the impression from the UF and Robert Morris games? But everyone thinks this team stinks all of a sudden, and is worse than last years team. This team would absolutely work last years. #1 in pace, top 5 offense, top 30 defense, #1 in boards, top 10 in Oboards, top 10 3pt defense, all against the hardest schedule in more than 2 decades according to kenpom. This Bama team is so much better than they are getting credit for.
Posted on 3/26/25 at 9:23 am to VaBamaMan
Posted on 3/26/25 at 9:25 am to Alabama_Fan
quote:
Nick Kelly@_NickKelly·1h
“‘Bama will always be home”
I caught up with former Alabama guard Jahvon Quinerly yesterday for a wide-ranging interview in New Jersey, his home state and where the Tide will play in the Sweet 16
Posted on 3/26/25 at 9:46 am to VaBamaMan
quote:
Its crazy how many people are picking BYU to win big. I am loving it, can't wait to beat the shite out of them.
Obviously it's likely to be a close game, but I think it's far more likely we blow them out than they blow us out.
This Bama team has this weird perception around them. I guess it's the impression from the UF and Robert Morris games? But everyone thinks this team stinks all of a sudden, and is worse than last years team. This team would absolutely work last years. #1 in pace, top 5 offense, top 30 defense, #1 in boards, top 10 in Oboards, top 10 3pt defense, all against the hardest schedule in more than 2 decades according to kenpom. This Bama team is so much better than they are getting credit for.
I like how everyone shits on Bama's defense when they are 43 spots better than BYU on Pomeroy and have done it against a much tougher schedule.
Posted on 3/26/25 at 9:57 am to Teague
quote:
like how everyone shits on Bama's defense when they are 43 spots better than BYU on Pomeroy and have done it against a much tougher schedule.
But but but They're top 10 over the last month!
They've also only played 3 good teams in that month. Beat Arizona, lost to Houston, and beat Iowa St in 2 OT after St lost 3 starters.
This post was edited on 3/26/25 at 9:59 am
Posted on 3/26/25 at 10:18 am to VaBamaMan
quote:
Its crazy how many people are picking BYU to win big. I am loving it, can't wait to beat the shite out of them. Obviously it's likely to be a close game, but I think it's far more likely we blow them out than they blow us out. This Bama team has this weird perception around them. I guess it's the impression from the UF and Robert Morris games? But everyone thinks this team stinks all of a sudden, and is worse than last years team. This team would absolutely work last years. #1 in pace, top 5 offense, top 30 defense, #1 in boards, top 10 in Oboards, top 10 3pt defense, all against the hardest schedule in more than 2 decades according to kenpom. This Bama team is so much better than they are getting credit for.
It’s a momentum thing, where the full season stats don’t tell the full story.
Here is our 3 point shooting in the 2 tourney games:
Perceived high volume shooters (8-31 or 26%):
Sears: 1-9 (and has been very bad for several games)
YB: 4-9 (but was 1-6 in first game)
Holloway 2-5 (was 1-4 in first game)
Philon: 0-2
Stevenson: 0-2
Nelson: 1-4
Low volume shooters (5-7 or 71%):
MoD: 4-4 (dude has been awesome, even while fasting!)
Reid: 1-1
Sharell: 0-2
I pointed out how YB is extremely streaky earlier, with 2 games this season he shot like 80%+ on high volume but was average to below average on a lot of other games. He did that this tournament with 1-6 and then 3-3 in B2B games, and it’s easier to shoot the 2nd time you play in a gym. So if we get 1-6 Chris, 1-4 Holloway, 1-5 or 0-4 Sears, 1-4 Nelson, etc., we don’t beat BYU. Shooting 26% from 3 by our main shooters won’t get it done. If YB shoots 1-6 in the first game, we’ll never get to see him go 5-5 against Duke in the 2nd game. And counting on MoD to be a better shooter from 3 than BYU like he was against RMU and St Mary’s probably isn’t a winning strategy (he had 1 less 3 than St Mary’s whole team on 12 fewer attempts).
Barring some anomaly of a low 3 point % from BYU, we will have to shoot well to win. We haven’t really shot well consistently in some time, with Sears missing tons of open 3s the last several games. That’s why people are fading us in this game.
This post was edited on 3/26/25 at 10:27 am
Posted on 3/26/25 at 10:34 am to BamaBravesPackers
One reason we're not shooting 3s as well is because teams have decided they'd rather run us off the line and hope we won't beat them at the rim. Note that we're still winning and are among the best 2 pt shooting teams in the country. BYU doesn't play good 3pt defense anyway, but if they take that approach, they're also undersized inside. Expect Cliff and Grant to get more highlight lobs.
Posted on 3/26/25 at 10:37 am to BamaBravesPackers
If BYU shoots well it will be a very close game, if they don't we will roll.
The St. Mary's game inspired hope. Even though they kept it respectable, we were toying with them. Doing what we wanted. I saw some serious swagger out there. Our perimeter D was pretty outstanding, which bodes well against BYU.
The St. Mary's game inspired hope. Even though they kept it respectable, we were toying with them. Doing what we wanted. I saw some serious swagger out there. Our perimeter D was pretty outstanding, which bodes well against BYU.
Posted on 3/26/25 at 10:48 am to Teague
quote:
One reason we're not shooting 3s as well is because teams have decided they'd rather run us off the line and hope we won't beat them at the rim.
St. Mary’s definitely did that, but Sears has missed a bunch of wide open 3s lately and I don’t remember most of YB’s 6 shots being contested against RMU (and Grant’s were pretty wide open against St Mary’s). Think we mainly just shot poorly against RMU.
Momentum can change, and it’s entirely possible we have one of our best shooting nights against BYU. I’m hoping that’s the case, but I don’t blame the national narrative for expecting more of the same rather than Bama getting it together.
If we don’t shoot well from 3, our only hope is to force TOs and dominate the glass. We’ve shown we can dominate the glass, but I’ve not seen a lot of evidence of us being able to speed a team up and cause chaos. We generally try to play sound defense and force a tough shot…don’t think that will work as well against BYU if we aren’t shooting well. Just my 2 cents
Posted on 3/26/25 at 10:49 am to BamaBravesPackers
quote:
Barring some anomaly of a low 3 point % from BYU,
Again, Bama has a top 10 3pt defense. They will not shoot their season average unless it's just one of the variance days that occasionally happen in basketball.
Bama also has a large advantage inside.
St Marys was a popular upset call too, Bama was never really tested by them. Top 10 defensive team, and Bama could get a basket whenever they wanted in the second half.
Posted on 3/26/25 at 10:58 am to BamaBravesPackers
quote:
If we don’t shoot well from 3, our only hope is to force TOs and dominate the glass.
OR, if/when their 6'6" guards take away the 3, our quicker guards blow by them for layups/lobs/fouls against their undersized front court. Or for kickout 3s when the defense collapses.
You can bet on Sears staying in a shooting slump if you want, but I don't think that's smart money.
BYU will absolutely beat us if we play poorly. But, if both teams play their average game, we win.
Posted on 3/26/25 at 11:01 am to Teague
quote:
BYU will absolutely beat us if we play poorly. But, if both teams play their average game, we win.
Clearly, we’re favored by 5 points for a reason. I just think people expect Bama to play under our avg and BYU to play above their avg, which has been the case recently. Hopefully Vegas is right, and the averages hold.
Posted on 3/26/25 at 11:09 am to Teague
quote:
OR, if/when their 6'6" guards take away the 3,
I don’t think they could do that if they tried. They are 248th in opposing 3pt %. We might miss all of our open shots, but they aren’t gonna take them away
This post was edited on 3/26/25 at 11:14 am
Posted on 3/26/25 at 11:23 am to Glorious
quote:
I don’t think they could do that if they tried
Probably not without giving up easy drives. I haven't really watched them, but I'm guessing those guards aren't exactly quick. I would imagine BYU's bad 3pt defense is at least partially due to them having to play off quicker guards to keep from getting beaten off the dribble. They don't appear to have much rim protection behind them.
Posted on 3/26/25 at 11:50 am to VaBamaMan
quote:
This team would absolutely work last years. #1 in pace, top 5 offense, top 30 defense, #1 in boards, top 10 in Oboards, top 10 3pt defense, all against the hardest schedule in more than 2 decades according to kenpom. This Bama team is so much better than they are getting credit for.
Not only are we #1 in strength of schedule, we went up against the #1 offensive ratings average, #3 defensive ratings, and the #9 OOC schedule.
BYU had the #46 schedule,#50 offensive and #31 defensive. Their ooc schedule was ranked #347.
From what I've watched from BYU, is they okay at a much slower tempo than us (Bama #1 in adj. tempo, BYU @ #178 adj tempo), and even shower m slower than Kentucky. They like to setup half court sets and try to find the open shooter.
One thing they'll try often it's to iso Demin with their shooters out wide. It can be effective, but can also lead to a turnover fest. I've got every NCAA recorded in my YouTube TV DVR. The Arizona game from a month ago is a pretty good example. Arizona plays at a pretty quick pace. So you'll see them try to slow things down.
Posted on 3/26/25 at 12:05 pm to Alabama_Fan
Alabama is pretty close in defensive efficiency to both VCU and Wisconsin. BYU on the other hand is 72nd. Alabamas offensive rating is 4th. VCU and Wisconsin were 48th and 12th respectively. I don’t know if KP weights strength of schedule into Off and Def efficiency.
Posted on 3/26/25 at 12:05 pm to Alabama_Fan
Alabama is pretty close in defensive efficiency to both VCU and Wisconsin. BYU on the other hand is 72nd. Alabamas offensive rating is 4th. VCU and Wisconsin were 48th and 12th respectively. I don’t know if KP weights strength of schedule into Off and Def efficiency.
Posted on 3/26/25 at 12:14 pm to LovetheLord
quote:
I don’t know if KP weights strength of schedule into Off and Def efficiency.
It does. That's why our D efficiency rankings actually got better in the last 2 weeks of the regular season despite playing nothing but top 10 offenses.
Posted on 3/26/25 at 12:21 pm to CCTider
quote:
They like to setup half court sets and try to find the open shooter.
Bodes well for us, our transition defense is a major achilles heal.
quote:
Not only are we #1 in strength of schedule, we went up against the #1 offensive ratings average, #3 defensive ratings, and the #9 OOC schedule
Yeah, it's been insane year. Hardest regular season schedule played by anyone in more than 20 years according to Kenpom. Funny enough Auburn was second.
This team is battle tested and ready for anyone. Our experience should carry us. Despite that schedule, we only lost by more than 12 once. Every single game we were within 10 in the last 3 minutes except the second UF game.
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