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re: Alabama Basketball Megathread | 26-7 (16-2)
Posted on 3/16/21 at 3:50 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Posted on 3/16/21 at 3:50 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
His True Shooting % is 37%
It's a huge mystery to me how Reese got worse as a shooter since Oats arrived. I'll never understand that one.
1
Posted on 3/16/21 at 3:51 pm to Chadaristic
quote:
It's a huge mystery to me how Reese got worse as a shooter since Oats arrived. I'll never understand that one.
Especially since all of his looks are basically catch and shoot open 3s, the thing that we used to say should be all he does when Avery was here.
Just hasn't clicked with his shot.
Posted on 3/16/21 at 3:54 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I know this isn’t really the discussion, but Reese’s shot has just gotten flatter and flatter. He never had a ton of arc, but now it’s just a line drive. Everything has to be perfect for it to go in.
I’m surprised we haven’t been able to do anything with that, but this also isn’t the NBA with unlimited time and resources/shooting coaches.
I’m surprised we haven’t been able to do anything with that, but this also isn’t the NBA with unlimited time and resources/shooting coaches.
Posted on 3/16/21 at 3:55 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Herb (21/40) (53%)
Not only is the percentage not that great, but the number of attempts makes it hurt a little more.
Posted on 3/16/21 at 3:55 pm to Crede15
quote:
I know this isn’t really the discussion, but Reese’s shot has just gotten flatter and flatter. He never had a ton of arc, but now it’s just a line drive. Everything has to be perfect for it to go in.
I’m surprised we haven’t been able to do anything with that, but this also isn’t the NBA with unlimited time and resources/shooting coaches.
It really does seem like maybe he decided he needed to have a quicker release and his quick wrist flick turned into almost a push.
Posted on 3/16/21 at 4:00 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Some trends to keep an eye on for us in terms of winning/losing (much like Dev's with Petty specifically)
- When Alabama has a PPP of less than 1.0, we are 5-6. When Alabama has a Point Per Possession of 1.0+, we are 19-0.
- When Alabama's turnover rate is >20%, we are 6-5. When Alabama's turnover rate is <20%, we are 18-1 (only loss was Stanford).
- When Alabama makes less than 10 3PTs we are 6-4. When Alabama makes 10 3PTs or more we are 18-2.
- When Alabama has a PPP of less than 1.0, we are 5-6. When Alabama has a Point Per Possession of 1.0+, we are 19-0.
- When Alabama's turnover rate is >20%, we are 6-5. When Alabama's turnover rate is <20%, we are 18-1 (only loss was Stanford).
- When Alabama makes less than 10 3PTs we are 6-4. When Alabama makes 10 3PTs or more we are 18-2.
This post was edited on 3/16/21 at 4:06 pm
Posted on 3/16/21 at 4:10 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Yeah. The keys to winning in basketball are:
Taking care of the basketball
Rebounding
Making free throws
Fundamentally sound defense
Taking care of the basketball
Rebounding
Making free throws
Fundamentally sound defense
Posted on 3/16/21 at 4:12 pm to Crede15
I haven't really noticed a difference in Reese's shot. It's had a pretty flat trajectory since he got here. Can't imagine it's gotten any flatter, but again I haven't paid close attention. Most times when he misses, he doesn't miss it by much so maybe they didn't want to tinker with his mechanics. Seems he has more shots rim out than anyone, probably because of the low trajectory.
Posted on 3/16/21 at 4:12 pm to MontyFranklyn
The main thing is that our defense is a constant. So the variables for us winning are almost all on offense, and because of how we play they almost entirely come down to:
- make an average number of 3s
- don't have an abnormally bad turnover game
That's obvious more difficult (the 2nd part especially) against better teams, but it's interesting to see laid out like that.
- make an average number of 3s
- don't have an abnormally bad turnover game
That's obvious more difficult (the 2nd part especially) against better teams, but it's interesting to see laid out like that.
Posted on 3/16/21 at 4:13 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Those are pretty crazy numbers. We've all been saying if we shoot it well as a team we can beat anyone. In reality, if John Petty shoots it well we can beat anybody. If he doesn't we'll probably have to grind it out. When Petty shoots it well we are a national title contender. When he doesn't we are (playing the way we are playing right now) a Top 10 or so really good team.
I mean, the numbers bear it out, Petty having a solid night basically adds 10-12 pts to our margins. If you add 10 pts to our "baseline" margin, that's a serious national title contender.
Yes, I was actually somewhat surprised at the numbers myself as I was going through them, because a lot was put on "if Primo gets hot, we have to get Primo going" and "if Shack gets hot, look out."
But it's really Petty.
If he gets hot, we are the January murder machine that runs Kentucky, Arkansas, and LSU off the court by 25+ points.
If he has a mediocre offensive game, we are still a tough-as-hell, grind-it-out Sweet 16 team like we saw against Tennessee and LSU in the SEC tournament. But things are a lot more difficult.
Posted on 3/16/21 at 4:16 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
- When Alabama has a PPP of less than 1.0, we are 5-6. When Alabama has a Point Per Possession of 1.0+, we are 19-0.
Just to give some context here...
Major College Teams that had a 1.00 or better PPP on offense went 700-265 this year - a win % of 72.5%.
We went 19-0 - a win% of 100.0%.
So an average High Major team would have gone 14-5. We went 19-0.
This post was edited on 3/16/21 at 4:19 pm
Posted on 3/16/21 at 4:17 pm to The Spleen
quote:
I haven't really noticed a difference in Reese's shot. It's had a pretty flat trajectory since he got here. Can't imagine it's gotten any flatter, but again I haven't paid close attention. Most times when he misses, he doesn't miss it by much so maybe they didn't want to tinker with his mechanics. Seems he has more shots rim out than anyone, probably because of the low trajectory.
What's weird to me about Reese's percentage being so poor is that most of his shots actually look like they are going in.
Petty, Shack, and Herb are all shooting much better percentages, but they all also have these god-awful attempts from time to time that miss by a mile and never look like they have a chance.
Reese's never do that. It's weird to see someone shoot 25% and never seem like they missed by much.
This post was edited on 3/16/21 at 4:19 pm
Posted on 3/16/21 at 4:18 pm to DLev45
Yea Reese almost never takes bad shots - as in, shots that aren't in rhythm or squared up. He might take shots when you don't want him to, but the actual looks are almost always "good".
Posted on 3/16/21 at 4:21 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Yea Reese almost never takes bad shots - as in, shots that aren't in rhythm or squared up. He might take shots when you don't want him to, but the actual looks are almost always "good".
That's why I am fine with Reese continuing to shoot them, even at 25%. He isn't taking step-back contested threes. They are great, step-in looks in rhythm.
Reese is another, like Petty, where if he were to find his stroke and shoot 40% over a 3-6 game stretch in the tournament, it could be a real weapon and turn us back into a murder machine.
Posted on 3/16/21 at 4:25 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Teams Records when they reach 1.0 PPP vs Major Conf Teams
Michigan (13-0)
Alabama (12-0)
Baylor (12-0)
Florida State (11-0)
Arkansas (11-1)
Florida (8-1)
LSU (11-1)
Tennessee (9-1)
North Carolina (9-1)
Purdue (12-2)
Virginia (12-2)
Georgia Tech (11-2)
Ohio State (13-3)
UConn (10-3)
Iowa (14-4)
Maryland (7-2)
Kentucky (7-2)
Missouri (7-3)
Texas (10-4)
West Virginia (10-5)
Auburn (5-6)
Michigan (13-0)
Alabama (12-0)
Baylor (12-0)
Florida State (11-0)
Arkansas (11-1)
Florida (8-1)
LSU (11-1)
Tennessee (9-1)
North Carolina (9-1)
Purdue (12-2)
Virginia (12-2)
Georgia Tech (11-2)
Ohio State (13-3)
UConn (10-3)
Iowa (14-4)
Maryland (7-2)
Kentucky (7-2)
Missouri (7-3)
Texas (10-4)
West Virginia (10-5)
Auburn (5-6)
This post was edited on 3/16/21 at 4:26 pm
Posted on 3/16/21 at 4:30 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
The current Final Four based on the ShotQuality algorithm:
Posted on 3/16/21 at 4:30 pm to Chadaristic
SHOTQUALITY FINAL FOUR HANG THE BANNER
Posted on 3/16/21 at 4:31 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Posted on 3/16/21 at 4:32 pm to Chadaristic
I feel like I saw something recently that based on shot quality we should have only lost like 2 games all season.
Posted on 3/16/21 at 4:34 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Yea Reese almost never takes bad shots - as in, shots that aren't in rhythm or squared up. He might take shots when you don't want him to, but the actual looks are almost always "good".
I don't think anyone on the team takes many bad ones, relatively speaking. Like I wouldn't want Herb shooting some of the 3's Petty takes, dnd I don't want Rojas making 10 3-point attempts in a game, but seems they all have the green light to take an open look when they get one.
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