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re: *** 2023 Braves - World Series or Bust ***

Posted on 12/17/22 at 3:34 pm to
Posted by Carlton
Forced LANKing made the GOAT Retire
Member since Feb 2016
14721 posts
Posted on 12/17/22 at 3:34 pm to
Looks Like Swanson to the Cubs.
Posted by PowHound
The Peoples Moderator
Member since Jul 2014
7240 posts
Posted on 12/17/22 at 3:59 pm to
7 years 177 million. Lol

Good luck with that cubies lololol
Posted by BamaBravesPackers
Member since Nov 2021
7955 posts
Posted on 12/17/22 at 5:50 pm to
I expect the cubs to be somewhat disappointed with at least 3 of those 7 years. Probably similar to Jason Heyward…just didn’t quite pan out for the money spent.
Posted by DT55Forever1
Member since Jan 2018
3107 posts
Posted on 12/17/22 at 6:19 pm to
Kind of like the last 3 years of the Matt Olson contract or any big time player contract. Pretty much the norm. To get any established player, you spend more than you want for longer than you want. Or you just don't sign any.
Posted by BamaBravesPackers
Member since Nov 2021
7955 posts
Posted on 12/17/22 at 6:24 pm to
Matt Olson had a down year this year, but will benefit from the no shift rule. He’s been a more consistent hitter than Swanson over his career, and it’s easier to play first later in your career than SS. My guess, we’ll be a lot happier with Olson than cubs will be with Swanson.

ETA: or you sign them early in their careers and take risk…AA is a master at that
This post was edited on 12/17/22 at 6:27 pm
Posted by DT55Forever1
Member since Jan 2018
3107 posts
Posted on 12/17/22 at 6:33 pm to
Except that Olson has hit over .270 in exactly one season in his career and has a career .250 batting average.

Dansby has hit over.270 in 3 of his seasons and has continued to increase production each year.

Olson is definitely not more consistent but yes, first base can extend a career. But with the DH available in both leagues, position is not much of an issue anymore.

quote:

you sign them early in their careers and take risk…AA is a master at that


That has been done well by AA. I agree with that.
This post was edited on 12/17/22 at 6:35 pm
Posted by BamaBravesPackers
Member since Nov 2021
7955 posts
Posted on 12/17/22 at 6:59 pm to
quote:

Dansby has hit over.270 in 3 of his seasons and has continued to increase production each year.


2 of those seasons he had less than 240 at bats (less than 130 in his first season that you used, and like 237 in the 2020 Covid year). Take a look at Swanson’s pre and post Allstar splits on the full years…he tends to fade hard down the stretch. Olson’s career 1st half, 2nd half splits are much better, and Olson’s career OPS is over 100 points higher than Swanson’s. Heck, Olson’s career OPS is over 50 points higher than Swanson’s best full year here in 2022. If you look at the full picture, Olson’s more consistent over the year and over his career as a hitter…and it’s not even that close if you look beyond the too simplistic batting AVG stat (Olson has like 70 more HRs in materially less at bats, and pretty sure he walks a whole lot more and fewer strikeouts).
This post was edited on 12/17/22 at 7:18 pm
Posted by WeWillFly
Up North
Member since Oct 2022
1492 posts
Posted on 12/23/22 at 3:18 pm to
This was yesterday, but I'll share -

The Braves acquired Lewin Diaz from the Orioles for cash considerations.
Posted by BamaBravesPackers
Member since Nov 2021
7955 posts
Posted on 12/26/22 at 11:42 am to
I hate the Mets, and hope they are the biggest spending losers to not win a WS this century for the next 77 years.
Posted by RollTide33
Member since Sep 2019
4300 posts
Posted on 12/27/22 at 9:51 pm to
Braves lock up Murphy for 6 years 73 million.
Posted by mistaken4193
Member since Jan 2017
29654 posts
Posted on 12/28/22 at 6:07 am to
I just fricking hate the move. Contreras was a stud with the bat. His defense would have gotten there.
Posted by Canyon16
Muscle Shoals
Member since Nov 2017
3841 posts
Posted on 12/28/22 at 7:13 am to
I agree...Contreras, clutch hitter, cool in pressure situations, All Star, 20 HR in 97 games last season.
Only 25, with work, defense would have improved.
Great DH option as well.
Posted by DT55Forever1
Member since Jan 2018
3107 posts
Posted on 12/28/22 at 8:56 am to
The move made no sense. Seemed like a desperation move after watching rivals stockpile talent. Wasn't a position of need. Needed to shore up starting pitching, left field and shortstop. Braves haven't done any of that. They're rolling into next year hoping Grissom explodes, Morton doesn't continue to flame out, Soroka comes back to form and Ozuna turns back into a consistent hitter. Sounds like a lot of hopes and dreams.
Posted by Robot Santa
Member since Oct 2009
46092 posts
Posted on 12/28/22 at 9:17 am to
quote:

His defense would have gotten there.


I don't know about that. On his best day he was pretty average defensively. He's only 24 though, so he would have at least gotten better at calling games with more experience behind the plate.

I'm not a big fan of the move though. Feels like we went all in a guy we are hoping blossoms into an elite 2 way catcher in his late 20s ala Realmuto and Molina. A big reason the Olson trade made sense was because we had Contreras under team control for a long time and that made Langeliers expendable. Now we have given that up, plus Muller, and married ourselves to a player who is older, more expensive, and not as good at the plate. If Murphy is less than a ~115 wRC+ kind of bat over the next 6 years he is going to have to be elite defensively for the deal to make much sense because Contreras has the potential to be the best hitting catcher in baseball over that same time period.
Posted by BamaBravesPackers
Member since Nov 2021
7955 posts
Posted on 12/28/22 at 11:11 am to
I guess I’m just not seeing it the way you guys see it. He’s one of the top 3 all around catchers in the game for the last 3 years. There’s a much better chance that he becomes a better hitter than Bill Contreras then Contreras becomes an above average defensive catcher. There’s an outside chance we just signed a catcher that could end up in the HOF if he plays long enough (I’ll repeat, outside chance. We like to platoon catchers so not sure he’ll have the at bats or the performance). There’s 0 chance Contreras becomes that guy.

We need him to stay healthy, but I think the value was there. My biggest concern is our farm system depth if we end up with injuries, and our lack of options at SS. That said, you can hide a defensive SS at the bottom of the lineup if you have good enough pitching. I was hoping for a top end frontline starter with this group to help win a playoff series, like a deGromm for $37mm instead of Morton for $20mm. But we were never going to give deGromm 5 years given his health issues.
Posted by Robot Santa
Member since Oct 2009
46092 posts
Posted on 12/28/22 at 1:50 pm to
quote:

There’s an outside chance we just signed a catcher that could end up in the HOF if he plays long enough (I’ll repeat, outside chance. We like to platoon catchers so not sure he’ll have the at bats or the performance). There’s 0 chance Contreras becomes that guy.


He's 28 and has only had one good full season at the plate. Catchers just need to be above average hitters to get HoF consideration if they are defensive savants, but Murphy has been a meh bat just as much as he has been a strong bat so far in his career. He has one good full season (2022) and one mediocre full season (2021). Defensively he is undeniably fantastic, but the jury is still out on him as a hitter. You say Contreras has 0 shot at the HoF, but he has a lot of raw power and 300 HRs is really all you need to get serious consideration as a catcher. If he is able to play adequately behind the plate he could absolutely get there.

My main issue with it is that Murphy is a slightly unknown commodity when we already had a slightly unknown commodity at the same position. Unless the internal opinion on Contreras is "average defender with no growth potential who will only get worse as he ages but will never have the elite hit tool to more than make up for it ala Mike Piazza", the move just kinda felt like an unnecessary gamble to me. If Murphy was 25 I'd have a very different opinion of it, but it seems like we are banking on his 2022 bat being a normal season instead of a career year and his 2021 bat being a down sesson instead of a normal one on top of banking on his defensive skills aging like a fine wine instead of falling apart in his early 30s like has happened to countless other players.
Posted by Bamafan4evr12
Member since Jul 2014
2286 posts
Posted on 12/28/22 at 2:10 pm to
We will just have to wait and see how Murphy adapts. Plug him in a lineup surrounded by good hitters like we have, plus get him away from Oaklands cavernous park and who knows he may turn into a very good bat. And it’s not like he’s been awful with the bat.
Posted by DT55Forever1
Member since Jan 2018
3107 posts
Posted on 12/28/22 at 4:25 pm to
quote:

plus get him away from Oaklands cavernous park


We got Olson away from that park and he hit 30 points lower with 5 fewer homers and 8 fewer RBIs.

The park is not the issue.
Posted by BamaBravesPackers
Member since Nov 2021
7955 posts
Posted on 12/28/22 at 9:52 pm to
Olson’s left handed. Look at Murphy’s home/rd splits. Oakland’s a really bad park for righty’s.
Posted by Gideon Swashbuckler
Member since Sep 2019
8840 posts
Posted on 1/14/23 at 1:43 pm to
Bump for the countdown

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