User Avatar

BloodRunsRed&Black

Favorite team:Georgia 
Location:Dalton, GA
Biography:
Interests:
Occupation:
Number of Posts:520
Registered on:10/3/2004
Online Status:Not Online

Recent Posts

Message
Kinda expected Nick Chubb to be on the list
quote:

UGA basketball is a mystery to me. State is loaded with talent but they seldom have good teams. What's the issue? Is your arena a shite hole? Even Tech has had some good teams over the years.


It is exactly what was said earlier, the fanbase, mostly, doesn’t care. When I was at school, we never even considered going to bball games. No one gave a shite.

I am fine with UGA keeping bball an afterthought. Put the money and effort into football. Football success is immeasurably more important. All other sports success is pretty meaningless.

A lot of UGA fans and supporters feel this way, and it seems like the athletic department and the administration do as well.

re: Georgia basketball is arse

Posted by BloodRunsRed&Black on 11/24/21 at 12:49 pm
quote:

Every UGA fan I know does care. I'm not sure who you're talking about. It's infuriating that we've struggled at basketball.


I could not give less of a frick about basketball, baseball, etc. All they do is takes resources from football.

There is one sport. frick the others.
quote:

They should recruit better. Georgia has plenty of basketball talent.


The fanbase would have to give a frick. In all the time I was at school, never went to a game, never even considered it…same with everyone else I knew. Hell, they could disband the fricker and I don’t think most Georgia fans would give two shits.

I know there will be UGA fans that love basketball and want a good team, but that is a minority. Most of ‘em, from what I can tell, don’t give a frick.
quote:


I struggle to see how Florida is going to score 24 points against Georgia. I guess it's possible but not very likely


I can definitely see it happening. UF has shite the bed a few times this year, but they have the ability to be explosive on offense. Three or four busted plays on defense, maybe a couple penalties, can turn into 14+ points really fast. I don’t think there will be a lot of sustained drives, but probably a couple. As good as our defense is, Florida is putting up a lot of yards and decent points to go with them. Even holding them to similar percentages of their average ypp like we’ve held others, 17-24 is easily within reach

The flip side is I really do think we can score pretty consistently on their defense. We’re efficient, we score and then play ball control when up two scores (Kirby needs to quit that shite, keep the offense opened up, son).
quote:

2. This UGA defense is good but they haven’t played a single high powered offense. They really lucked out with their west games and Clemson being in a rebuild year.
3. Mark it down, they will get torched in the SEC championship and again in the first round of the playoffs.


I’m not arguing that this defense will end the season as an all time great…there’s a lot of football left and they have a lot left to prove.

But the argument that they haven’t faced an explosive defense is because a lot of people just look at the rankings of the offenses, which are based on total yards per game, or points per game. That stat is useless, as a tool.

Yards per attempt is what is important, coupled with efficiency, and linking these to scoring. And UGA is holding teams to under 50% their rushing yards against other opponents and 70% of their passing yards and their efficiency is amazing. The numbers are elite, and ridiculously so. There are enough data points to think that unless they just have an off day, these numbers should hold against even an elite offense…they just have to keep executing, so we’ll see.

The thing is, against an OSU or Bama offense, these numbers indicate that UGA will give up around 30-35 points. UGA is almost at the CEILING of what is statistically reasonable, and should still expect to surrender that many points. That’s just the reality of modern offense. Against either team, it’s “6-5 and pick’em”.
No, it isn’t trying hard. It is just the numbers. I think the Vegas line would probably go Georgia’s way, of course, because the line is supposed to control money wagered, not predict scores. Bettors like a trend, and Georgia is tending. But as far as predicting a score, UGA is holding teams to 75% off passing and around 45% of rushing. That is probably getting close to the floor of what anyone can accomplish. A high powered offense historically has a high chance to break an explosive play or two that skews the total yardage upwards. 450 yards is a good estimate, and if you look at offenses this year, that nets around 32-37 points.

I haven’t done the per attempt yardage for Georgia’s offense, and per game yardage is VASTLY inferior as a predictor (like, worthless to even talk about). But we’ve averaged 38 against marginally better defenses.

32-37 on one side, 38 on the other. I lean towards the high end for OSU, just based on recent trend.

To me, any game within 3 is basically a pick’em
quote:

Georgia defense is good but let’s see them play some good offenses before anointing them the 1985 Bears.



This is the reason a game with Bama, OU, or OSU (Just to name some good offenses) would probably be a pick’em type game.

There are enough data points to think that UGA would most likely hold true to form, hold up to a good offense at the levels they have. That still means a good offense puts up ~450 yards and ~35 points. And UGA has played better 5 better defenses than either OU or OSU and is still projected string the same points, going by the same statistical reference. Conversely, both those teams have played offenses better than Georgia…it all boils down to a matchup between these teams being a toss up.

Bama, I think, is best set up to handle UGA with the balance of offense and defense that they have shown mostly. They’ve had a rough hiccup, which is why I would call that a pick’em game as well.
quote:

I haven't run the stats to be sure, but you're leaving out that all of these teams have played non P5 or even FCS teams this year and have inflated their stats against them. And they did not because of Covid last year. So the numbers aren't directly comparable. I bet these offenses are all about the same as last year.


Honestly, I really shouldn't have even used per game stats, but it was late and I was being lazy. Those stats are TV stats, they look good on a screen but are not very useful. And points per game are particularly not useful because there is simply a floor to that stat...teams are generally going to score a certain amount at least, between 7-10 probably, on average, against even an amazing team. That is just football.

Using per attempt stats are far more descriptive, particularly when used to compare a team performance versus all other competition.

Against these teams, last year UGA held them to 82% of their pass yards per attempt average and 55% of their rush yards per attempt average (against competition other than Georgia).

This year, those numbers have dropped to 75% and 45% respectively

Interestingly, that game that is hurting UGA the most out of those is SC. the numbers drop to 68% and 35% without that game. Basically, the defense has become more efficient as the season has progressed.
quote:

They are probably better


They are. Mostly…

Auburn is 9 ppg and 70 ypg better
Kentucky is a 6-7 ppg and 70 ypg better
Arkansas is 5-6 ppg and 70 ypg better

South Carolina is almost exactly the same…like within 6 ypg and 1.5 ppg.

So:

Auburn: 35% up on ppg, 18% up on ypg
Kentucky: 30% up on ppg, 24% up on ypg
Arkansas: 21% up on ppg, 18% up on ypg
South Carolina: push

That’s fairly significant when you consider that type of increase in ypg alone is the difference between an offense in the 70s range and a top 20 offense

EDIT: Or to put it another way, averaging it out, the teams mentioned are 5.25 ppg better than last year. So, using your numbers, if Georgia’s defense was just the same as last year, they should have averaged 13.75 ppg, 2 touchdowns each, basically. As it is, Georgia has held them to 65% of the projected scoring when based against last year

quote:

In fact, SEC champion UGA would be left out of the national title.


The BCS simulators I've seen project that UGA would have jumped Oklahoma, but your point is well taken.

Here's one of them
I have a lot of confidence in our team right now. Sure, Auburn could beat us and I will probably be nervous come game time, but I expect UGA to win.

Worried? Not exactly worried at the moment...
Zamir White
2 10.73 May 14 NCHSAA 4A East Region V P
1 10.58 PR May 14 NCHSAA 4A East Region V F
6 10.85 (.4) May 21 NCHSAA 4A State Championships V P
6 10.74 (1.4) May 21 NCHSAA 4A State Championships V F

Those are his 100m track times from last spring. Just for comparison, PR's from some other good backs:

Damien Harris
2 10.98 PR May 16 KHSAA 3A Region 7 Championship V F

Nick Chubb
2 10.69 PR Apr 26 GHSA 4A Sectional A (Regions 5,6,7,8) V F

Najee Harris
3 11.19 PR (1.7) Mar 16 Antioch vs Deer Valley Dual V F

Derrick Henry
4 11.11 PR Apr 15 FHSAA 2A District 3 Championships V P

Dalvin Cook
4 11.18 PR (.4) Apr 17 FHSAA 3A District 16 Championship V F


Obviously, you have to take times with a grain of salt AND track speed does not always equate to field speed, but the kid can run.

ETA: Those were from 2016, sophomore season. Below are the only times from junior season.

2 11.22 Apr 25 SEC Championship Meet V P
1 10.96 SR Apr 25 SEC Championship Meet V F
quote:

Danny Sheridan said yesterday if the game were to be played right now (meaning yesterday) the line would be Bama -14.5


I saw that...I actually think he is right. I think money would go to UGA at that line and it would move down, but given Alabama's recent history and Georgia's first trip to ATL under a new coach, I could see that line happening.

I think that if you only look at on the field product, we're a touchdown underdog though.

re: On Gruden

Posted by BloodRunsRed&Black on 10/10/17 at 1:41 am
quote:

Please happen.


Agreed. The rest of the SEC would love for Tennessee to hire Gruden.
quote:

Don't know why this gump is talking shite, you can't get into UGA anyways. Hence, you went to Bama.


C'mon man, he did not go to college.
quote:

I bet the line is more like Auburn -5 to -7


Auburn -3 or -4...a home field advantage line.
quote:

so far but Hardman and Godwin are sure handed.


Shhhhhhhhhh...
Has the SEC rank as #1 conference...wtf