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James_Brian_Hellwig

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Registered on:5/13/2021
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Who do you think will be the premiere RB in the SEC this season?

I’ll present some next level data from last season to kick it off and let you decide which is the most important factor (all numbers are among returning RBs).


Yards after contact

Tank Bigsby – 3.9
Brian Robinson – 3.8
Isaiah Spiller – 3.5
John Emery – 3.4

% of runs that went for 5+ yds
Brian Robinson – 50%
Tank Bigsby – 48%
Chris Rodriguez – 47%
Jerrion Ealy – 42%

Broken tackle rate
Tank Bigsby – 22%
Chris Rodriguez – 17%
Jerrion Ealy – 14%
Brian Robinson – 14%

If I had to choose, I’m going Tank due to his upside. Elite contact balance & explosive. Looking forward to seeing what he can do through a complete season when fully healthy.
It’ll work itself out. The first year or two will be the Wild West though. Should be interesting.
Still doing some initial research as we head into the season. I’m terrible though. So I dont know if I would listen to anything I say. :lol:
Any reason for the moderated lockdown of a topic with great discussion?
      
While perusing a few lines like the drunken degenerate that I am, I came across a few interesting numbers about Nick Saban that was somewhat interesting:

-Since 2008, the average point spread for a Nick Saban-led team is just under -21 points.

-43 of his 162 wins (or over ¼) have come while covering at least a -21 point spread.

Madness.

For our Texas A&M friends out there: Jimbo Fisher is 24-15 ATS when favored by 21+. No other coach really comes close to that cover % since 2010.
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Those numbers came from playing State, SC, Mizzou and he managed 1 TD and 1 pick against a G5 team in their bowl game.


He threw for well above what they allowed on average vs 3 of those teams while overcoming a knee injury on a new team.

JT Yds (vs Opp Season Avg)
Miss St: 401 (263)
Cinci: 392 (214)
Mizzou: 299 (246)
S. Carolina: 139 (256)

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Oh hell, he's a Florida fan. Trolling UGA is what they do.


True. The defense mechanism needs work however:

Record vs ranked opponents - since 2009
Kirby Smart: 17-11 (coaching since 2016)
Dan Mullen: 12-39
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He would have to be ridiculously efficient. We were throwing it around a lot more with JT last year but even then we were running the ball 45% of the time.

I seriously doubt we will pass the ball enough for him to put up numbers that will compete with Rattler. He would have to be near Mac Jones level efficient to be considered.


Could be brother. But a shocking find: UGA passed on 53% of plays that JT was in.

Here's UGA's Pass ratio each year under Kirby (this takes into account sacks, scrambles and I also tried to eliminate spikes if it was listed correctly in play-by-play)

2016 - 46%
2017 - 35%
2018 - 44%
2019 - 48%
2020 - 50%

If they hold in that 53%-55% range, JT could light up the box score with the talent.
As a big believer in JT Daniels, I took a deep dive into how Georgia performed last year with him at QB.

Let us start with the most eyepopping number first: With JT Daniels on the field, the Bulldog offense averaged an astounding 7.5 yards per play! If we extrapolate this out over a full season, that would place the 2020 UGA offense among the top-10 most explosive offenses over the last 3 seasons.

Part of that was JT’s ability to push the ball downfield. JT had 22 completions of 20+ yards last year. That was more than 44 other FBS teams, in just 4 games!

The Bulldog offense also converted 57% on 3rd down with JT, compared to 41% without him on the field.

Georgia Offense w/ JT Daniels on the field
YPP – 7.5
Comp% - 67%
3rd Down% - 57
Offensive EPA – 70.3

Georgia Offense w/o JT Daniels on the field
YPP – 5.5
Comp% - 52%
3rd Down% - 41%
Offensive EPA – 2.9

I think UGA has the dogs to win it all this year and JT is a good bet to get at least an invite to NYC, if not win the whole thing.

What do you think?
A mulligan for Mississippi State? Nah. Doesn’t fit here brother.
Next year they’re moving the Championship Series to start on Saturdays (like it used to be). In true NCAA fashion, this is mostly only for TV ratings & not a decision to benefit the players.

They should push the Championship Series back another 3-4 days between games every year. Would make for a more enticing series with teams at relative full strength.
I wonder how drastic the odds shift with a State win in Game 1
Not particularly upset with Vandy over this tbh
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Careful brother. Some may think Boz was pro-NCAA with that shirt, today. :lol:
Yea. Unfortunately you're right.

Trying not to get too caught up in this Vandy situation, but its difficult not to be somewhat perturbed.
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No. Bednar MIGHT be available for a few relief innings (like 2) but he wont start a single game.


How I'm seeing it too brother.

Odds to win 2021 CWS Title

Posted by James_Brian_Hellwig on 6/27/21 at 10:02 am
     
Vanderbilt -190
Mississippi State +155

According to BetAG

Who are you taking?