re: Should we expect to be a pass first team next year?

They list him from 4.5 to 4.71 in HS combines. An early knock on him was speed but supposedly made up for it with quickness.

I believe the 4.7 number is close seeing him play. 4.5 and below, you just look different with the ball.

We should have seen explosion by now, just don't think he is on his brothers level. Hope I am wrong.

We haven't used our speed right since Chaney left.

I don't disagree. Mecole was special.

Robertson just doesn't seem explosive.

I like really fast players.

There is no way in Hell a healthy Cook runs a 4.7 or slower.

I read how players or plays are underutilized. But we dont appear very efficient when we do those attempts.

If you want the ball more, you have to ball more when given opportunities.

The same goes to passing on third and short (complaints that we do it too often). Well... were weren't good at running on third down. That would be the other option. Consequently, fromms best attribute was often the right play and execution on third down.

The same complaint goes for being a team with more downfield passing. How many times did we go downfield and not connect? Let me give you a hint... we were under 50% completions (possibly under 40%).

If we are inefficient and dont convert first downs, hell... even the center doesnt touch the ball enough.

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Robertson was criminally underutilized, but I suspect he's in for a big year.

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Robertson needs to hit the juggs machine. He was targeted 55x and caught 30 of them for a 55% catch rate. Almost the same catch rate he had at Cal (50 of 92).

Robertson wasn't necessarily under-utilized, but he wasn't always properly utilized, while also running routes in a pedestrian and non-intuitive route structure (poor play design that didn't help receivers create separation in voids and space).

You can see here that Robertson actually got the 2nd most targets of the receivers (but would have likely been 3rd if Cager didn't get hurt).

- Pickens was 49 of 77 (64%) - this needs to, and should, improve
- Cager was 33 of 42 (79%)
- Robertson was 30 of 55 (55%)
- Simmons was 21 of 44 (48%)
- Blaylock was 18 of 28 (64%)
- Wolf was 13 of 17 (76%)
- Landers was 10 of 22 (46%)
- Woerner was 9 of 15 (60%)
- Jackson was 5 of 8 (63%)

All our receivers should be in the 70-80% range.

LSU's Justin Jefferson caught 111 of 134 targets for 83%, for instance, while Chase was around 69%, but mostly because he was the deep target a ton.

Thanks for sharing.

May I ask where you got the numbers?

I do think it is interesting that the best completion percentages were first year on the field with the Dawgs

Cager
Pickens
Wolf
Blaylock
Jackson

The lowest completions had been on the team with Fromm the longest
Landers
Simmons
Robertson
Woerner

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Robertson needs to hit the juggs machine.

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He needs a qb who can hit him in stride downfield. Hope Newman can be that guy.

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When a receiver is the target for only 40 or 50 throws, the quality of the passes can have a big effect on that number. I'd like to see it adjusted for catches divided by makeable catches.

Plus, lax officiating has an effect too. Pickens got absolutely mugged multiple times this year that for some reason didn't get called PI. You could say that's partly his responsibility for not getting more open, but it's kind of unfair to penalize a receiver's stats if the db is holding one or both of his arms down, or tackling him before the ball arrives.

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I get that, but as far as I can tell, those stat breakdowns for college don't exist. Or maybe they do, but I don't know where.

It would be great to know receiver's catch rate/drop rate on just "catchable balls" rather than just receptions vs targets.

BUT, it still doesn't change the fact there is a relative comparison capable the way it is between all receivers.

We don't know how many uncatchable balls were thrown at Justin Jefferson, for instance. But we do know he caught 111 of his 134 targets (83%).

Just like we don't know how many uncatchable balls were thrown at Tyler Simmons. But we do know he only caught 21 of 44 targets (48%).

Now is it likely that Fromm threw more uncatchable balls to Simmons than Burrow threw to Jefferson?

Yeah, very likely. But was it so many to cause a 35% difference in catch rate?

Hell no. We know Fromm wasn't 35% more inaccurate than Burrow.

So what we can logically deduce is that Simmons had/has shite hands and Coley was a dipshit for not only making him the primary target quite a bit, but even having him step on the field at all.

Same with Landers.

We can also ask questions like "Why the hell didn't Wolf get more targets?" Or "Why would you throw to our lowest percentage catch rate receivers at some of the most critical times we had to have a reception?"


Advanced stats can be read many different ways than just the one thing they are describing. You combine them and then compare them to other relative situations and it's much easier to make logical deductions.

I delve hard into these things quite often, and this is why I get bitchy here when some folks try to tell me something I know isn't true because I've actually done the research.

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I delve hard into these things quite often, and this is why I get bitchy here when some folks try to tell me something I know isn't true because I've actually done the research.

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I wasn't criticizing your posting the stats, just saying that it would be interesting to see how adjusted numbers compare.

i don't care if we run first or pass first

i just don't want the other team to know what we are going to do before the ball is even snapped - it seemed everyone watching on tv, in the stadium, and the other team knew exactly what we were to do before each play began