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re: Realistic expectations for Kirby Smart?We know that a top 10 finish 1/2 the time
Posted on 12/16/15 at 11:58 am to 3rddownonthe8
Posted on 12/16/15 at 11:58 am to 3rddownonthe8
quote:
@ OM - L
( they are losing a lot on D and QB situation)
Why do people keep saying this about FL but not OM? They are losing all of those #1 recruits that helped Freeze get to where they are. They will take a big step back next year unless they brought in some really underrated players? In '14 they had 0 5*s and the 15th ranked class, last year they again had 0 5*s and the 17th ranked class. Conversely, we keep being picked to beat Auburn and they had the 6th class in '14 and the 9th in '15. I know thats all relative but Gus' history of doing more with less is way better than Freeze. Im not seeing how they are going to be an auto-loss for anyone. Maybe it's just me..
This post was edited on 12/16/15 at 12:06 pm
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Posted on 12/16/15 at 1:08 pm to Kneehigh
quote:
Richt won the SEC twice in 4 years and played for it 3 times (in 5 years). What are you trying to compare?
His last 10 years which is why he was fired.
If Smart repeats Richt's performance over 15 years then he should be fired also. When you are member of the big 6 teams who have won an SECC, going 10 years without winning a SECC is unacceptable.Posted on 12/16/15 at 1:12 pm to RD Dawg
quote:
So if KS wins a SECC and finishes 6-6,2-10 or 7-4 the other years and doesn't make any SECG appearances,he'll have accomplished more than CMR in his l0 years? So you'd keep him around even if had a Chizic like slide (0-8 in the conference)?
No, and I didn't say or imply that. Many, probably most, assume that with the wealth of recruiting talent in our state, that many coaches including Smart should be able to win 9 games per season most of the time. Do that and win a SECC and yea, Smart will have done more than Richt did over the last 10 years.
Posted on 12/16/15 at 5:20 pm to RD Dawg
Year 1, a top 25 finish would be nice. He is a brand new head coach and we are losing commitments left and right so I am trying to keep my expectations in perspective.
I expect an appearance in the SEC Championship by year 3. That may be a lot to ask but the East is so watered down. The only teams that realistically have a chance are UF, UT and UGA. SC has a new HC and I just don't see Muschamp doing much with that program.
I expect an appearance in the SEC Championship by year 3. That may be a lot to ask but the East is so watered down. The only teams that realistically have a chance are UF, UT and UGA. SC has a new HC and I just don't see Muschamp doing much with that program.
Posted on 12/16/15 at 5:21 pm to bpatters69
quote:
I expect an appearance in the SEC Championship by year 3. That may be a lot to ask
it's not a lot by any stretch. It's perfeclty reasonable to expect us to win the division within 3 years.
Richt did it twice in his first 3 years, and he wasn't starting off with the talent we'll have.
Posted on 12/16/15 at 7:01 pm to WG_Dawg
15 - 0
Every year
Every year
Posted on 12/16/15 at 7:33 pm to RD Dawg
I'll settle for being actually competitive in games that fricking matter, not losing 2 of 3 to Vandy at any point, and never only having 67 scholarship players on an 85 man roster for starters.
Posted on 12/16/15 at 7:33 pm to RD Dawg
I'll play.
-An SECCG appearance every 3 years would be fantastic, but if that stat is skewed due to being heavily front loaded with 3 in the first 5 and just 2 over the next 10 years would probably be a disappointment.
-Finishing in the top 10 half the time in 15 years would be a good pretty good feat. However, if those top 10 finishes are again front loaded, and there is a stretch of 6 years where the team finishes unranked in half of them then that would be a major disappointment.
Sorry couldn't help myself
Now as to the real question. First you need to establish a realistic baseline based, and that is difficult do if you just cherry pick 2 stats. What if UGA goes on a 5 year run with just 1 top 10 finish, but they are top 15 the rest of the seasons? What if they go top 10 3 times during a 5 year period and the wheels completely fall off in the other 2? Would making the SECCG 4 times in 5 years be satisfactory if we went 8-4 in those years? Much like with the previous era, there are a number of variables which need to be taken into consideration.
I will be extremely happy if 5 years from now the team has appeared in the Georgia Dome twice, a few top 12 finishes while never falling farther than #20, and the teams walks away from truly quality opponents with about a 50/50 split. After 5 years I would also think it would very nice if I were able to look forward to season 6 without wondering how many times the team is going to end a Saturday down by 2+ touchdowns.
-An SECCG appearance every 3 years would be fantastic, but if that stat is skewed due to being heavily front loaded with 3 in the first 5 and just 2 over the next 10 years would probably be a disappointment.
-Finishing in the top 10 half the time in 15 years would be a good pretty good feat. However, if those top 10 finishes are again front loaded, and there is a stretch of 6 years where the team finishes unranked in half of them then that would be a major disappointment.
Sorry couldn't help myself
Now as to the real question. First you need to establish a realistic baseline based, and that is difficult do if you just cherry pick 2 stats. What if UGA goes on a 5 year run with just 1 top 10 finish, but they are top 15 the rest of the seasons? What if they go top 10 3 times during a 5 year period and the wheels completely fall off in the other 2? Would making the SECCG 4 times in 5 years be satisfactory if we went 8-4 in those years? Much like with the previous era, there are a number of variables which need to be taken into consideration.
I will be extremely happy if 5 years from now the team has appeared in the Georgia Dome twice, a few top 12 finishes while never falling farther than #20, and the teams walks away from truly quality opponents with about a 50/50 split. After 5 years I would also think it would very nice if I were able to look forward to season 6 without wondering how many times the team is going to end a Saturday down by 2+ touchdowns.
This post was edited on 12/16/15 at 7:37 pm
Posted on 12/16/15 at 8:04 pm to 3rddownonthe8
quote:
2016 schedule -
UNC at GA Dome - ( Williams is a SR ) - W
NICK ST - W
@ MIZZ - W
@ OM - L
UT - L
@ USC - W
VU - W
UF - toss up ( they are losing a lot on D and QB situation)
@ UK - W
AU - W
LS CAJUNS - W
GT - W
I'm looking at 10-2, 9-3 at worse.
Where does anyone really see 4-6 losses?
Just to play devils advocate. Three games of note that could flip:
NC - Williams is a SR, but Georgia will have an 18 year old true freshmen at QB.
AU - I think they had a young team this past year, and it's not like Georgia blew them away.
GT - Tech was decimated by injuries this past season and had a lot of young guys on the field.
In 2016 we will be without our only legitimate weapon from 2015 at WR, breaking in a brand new QB as a true freshmen, two of maybe the best O-lineman on the team, and 3 of the better players on the defense this past season from the front 7. Oh and special teams, we will need a new place kicker. Hopefully it's next guy up in all of those situations, but I'm not ready to pencil in 9 or 10 wins as a given with so much turnover to go along with a schedule which will likely be more difficult than 2015.
This post was edited on 12/16/15 at 8:05 pm
Posted on 12/16/15 at 8:14 pm to Dawgs28
quote:
difficult to do if you cherry pick stats
Really?Good thing you didn't do that.
I think the last 5 years is somewhat of a fair yardstick.Below average on the top 10 (twice) and above on sECCG appearences.There was never a stretch of 6 years going unranked or not being in the top 10.
Ultimately thats what he'll be judged by even if our play is much improved in big games (which it needs to be) and we still lose.
Posted on 12/16/15 at 8:16 pm to RD Dawg
If he averages 8-9 wins a season, what will you think of him/the hire?
Posted on 12/16/15 at 8:18 pm to Dawgs28
I just want to be competitive in all games. It's really been a long time since we've done that. And hopefully that translates into an SEC championship 3-4 years. I remember when we used to at least keep games close against good teams. Remember going up by 11 in the 2012 SECCG? Peppridge Farm remembers.
Posted on 12/16/15 at 8:28 pm to Kneehigh
quote:
averages 8 or 9
Does he have a dream season and win a Natty?
Posted on 12/16/15 at 8:38 pm to Kneehigh
quote:
What will you think of the hire
At the very minimum he's got to get to the title game and compete.If we're competitive in every single game and come away with 8 or 9 wins it won't make a differnce if we aren't getting to SECCG 2 outta every 5 years.
Posted on 12/17/15 at 5:16 am to RD Dawg
quote:
the very minimum he's got to get to the title game and compete.If we're competitive in every single game and come away with 8 or 9 wins it won't make a differnce if we aren't getting to SECCG 2 outta every 5 years.
Exactly. The reason for the coaching change was to get over the "hump." CKS needs to do that to keep his new gig. The timeline on how long he has to do it I think depends entirely on, as previous posters have mentioned, how competitive we are in big games.
Posted on 12/17/15 at 5:48 am to Snazzmeister
To the OP
My realistic expectations are minimum 8-4 with next year's schedule for a first year coach with likely a first year QB.
Then allow CKS 2-3 years to recruit HIS players into HIS system and fine-tune staffing choices. Over this 2-3 year period I expect better results each year...
Culminating in SHOWING UP AND COMPETING IN the SEC CG by 2018.
Playoff Bowl by 2019
Win National Championship by 2020.
My realistic expectations are minimum 8-4 with next year's schedule for a first year coach with likely a first year QB.
Then allow CKS 2-3 years to recruit HIS players into HIS system and fine-tune staffing choices. Over this 2-3 year period I expect better results each year...
Culminating in SHOWING UP AND COMPETING IN the SEC CG by 2018.
Playoff Bowl by 2019
Win National Championship by 2020.
This post was edited on 12/17/15 at 5:51 am
Posted on 12/17/15 at 7:48 am to Beantownbulldog
All of that is shite until the admin really steps up.
Posted on 12/17/15 at 8:20 am to Spaceman Spiff
CMR won the SEC in his 2nd year. Why can't Kirby? The recruiting is better, the facilities will be better, the coaches should be better?
Posted on 12/17/15 at 9:29 am to TallyDawg
quote:
CMR won the SEC in his 2nd year. Why can't Kirby? The recruiting is better, the facilities will be better, the coaches should be better?
Because Alabama much better now than they were in 2002.
This post was edited on 12/17/15 at 9:30 am
Posted on 12/17/15 at 9:35 am to djsdawg
quote:
Because Alabama much better now than they were in 2002.
So? Bama is not on the schedule for the next two years unless it's in the SECCG. We are trying our best to replicate Bama by hiring their coaches. Why shouldn't we expect to beat them?
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