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Posted on 3/28/20 at 1:02 pm to Dawgsontop34
But what about all the people that COVID19 didn't kill? /S
Posted on 3/28/20 at 1:13 pm to Dawgsontop34
quote:
quote:
And yea, a year from now the death rate for Coronavirus will probably look a lot N1V1 with more complete data.
The US death toll for the Coronavirus is probably going to pass H1N1 in 2-3 weeks, maybe sooner.
Notice that I said "death rate" not death toll. I'm sure the total death numbers from the Coronavirus will exceed the roughly 17 thousand CDC estimate for the H1V1 deaths in the U.S. The reason for this is 80% of the deaths from Coronavirus are people over 65 whereas the H1V1 numbers were roughly reversed with 80% of the deaths were people under 60. Translation: H1V1 was much more devastating to young people (1800 children died from H1V1) but younger people are much more likely to survive any viral infection. So yea, a lot of old people will die from the Coronavirus but the denominator will much greater because many people under the age of 65 will be exposed to it and develop antibodies, thus the death rate for the Coronavirus will probably be similar to H1V1 because more total people will be exposed to it and survive. But we will see in about a year how it pans out.
This post was edited on 3/28/20 at 1:15 pm
Posted on 3/28/20 at 1:22 pm to Dawgsontop34
quote:
The US death toll for the Coronavirus is probably going to pass H1N1 in 2-3 weeks, maybe sooner
What?
So we'll surpass the combined total of Italy and China in 2 weeks?
How in the world are you coming to this conclusion?
Posted on 3/28/20 at 1:40 pm to RD Dawg
quote:
What?
So we'll surpass the combined total of Italy and China in 2 weeks?
How in the world are you coming to this conclusion?
Yep, and frankly I don't believe the data coming out of Communist China. They have over a billion people with very high population density. Unless they released this thing intentionally and were thus prepared to contain it, there's no way they have only about 82k infections.
Posted on 3/28/20 at 1:42 pm to GurleyGirl
quote:^^This.
Notice that I said "death rate" not death toll. I'm sure the total death numbers from the Coronavirus will exceed the roughly 17 thousand CDC estimate for the H1V1 deaths in the U.S. The reason for this is 80% of the deaths from Coronavirus are people over 65 whereas the H1V1 numbers were roughly reversed with 80% of the deaths were people under 60. Translation: H1V1 was much more devastating to young people (1800 children died from H1V1) but younger people are much more likely to survive any viral infection. So yea, a lot of old people will die from the Coronavirus but the denominator will much greater because many people under the age of 65 will be exposed to it and develop antibodies, thus the death rate for the Coronavirus will probably be similar to H1V1 because more total people will be exposed to it and survive. But we will see in about a year how it pans out.
This is what people aren't taking into consideration, too.
quote:43M-89M cases, 9000-18000 deaths.
CDC Estimates of 2009 H1N1 Influenza Cases, Hospitalizations and Deaths in the United States
During the pandemic, CDC provided estimates of the numbers of 2009 H1N1 cases, hospitalizations and deaths on seven different occasions. Final estimates were published in 2011. These final estimates were that from April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010 approximately 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (8868-18,306) occurred in the United States due to pH1N1. These final estimates are available at: Estimating the burden of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in the United States (April 2009-April 2010)External Web Site Icon, Shrestha SS, et al., Clin Infect Dis. 2011 Jan 1;52 Suppl 1:S75-82.
That's a 0.042% to 0.010% mortality rate.
And the average age range was between 5yo to 65yo for dying of H1N1.
CV19 is quite likely going to be somewhere around 90M-150M cases, with 20,000-30,000 deaths.
Which is a 0.033% to 0.013% mortality rate.
With the average age range being more like 50yo to 80yo.
Because that's the overwhelmingly logical nature of respiratory/pulmonary illnesses.
Older people have less heart, artery, and lung function by nature, because that's what decays in our bodies with age. And that's precisely what CV19 attacks.
H1N1 attacked the lymph system, which ultimately shut down immunity and caused widespread infection in the body, which shut down organs and even caused fever in the brain. This is why children were especially hit bad by it.
The younger people who are being hit badly by CV19 are either smokers, chronic asthma sufferers, certain cancer sufferers, or have pre-existing respiratory or pulmonary conditions, like clogged arteries due to obesity or poor diet.
Posted on 3/28/20 at 1:54 pm to RD Dawg
quote:
What?
So we'll surpass the combined total of Italy and China in 2 weeks?
How in the world are you coming to this conclusion?
Our death total basically doubles every 3 days. I hope that doesn’t continue, but that’s what I’m going off.
Posted on 3/28/20 at 1:56 pm to GurleyGirl
quote:
Yep, and frankly I don't believe the data coming out of Communist China.
Of course they’re lying. Same with Iran. That’s one of the reasons it’s so frustrating when idiots like Hillary Clinton point out how the US is first in number of cases.
As if all the data is available from those countries.
Posted on 3/28/20 at 2:15 pm to Dawgsontop34
quote:You're just saying random words at this point.
And yet, you’re attacking me even though I’m someone who would consider myself a conservative for literally just saying both sides have been partisan.
You’re proving my point exactly so thank you for doing that.
You conveniently dismissed and sidestepped the fact that there is a difference in posture between the two sides, which matters. Like, that's THE main and most relevant point of this particular side-topic.
And the fact you just conveniently, and purposely, breezed right on by that means you're precisely who I inferred you were.
You're welcome.
Posted on 3/28/20 at 2:23 pm to Dawgsontop34
quote:
Our death total basically doubles every 3 days. I hope that doesn’t continue, but that’s what I’m going off.
Yep, I wouldn't be shocked. I mean think about it, all it takes is 1 infected item in multiple nursing homes and you could have 50 deaths per nursing home.
Part of the problem with interpreting the data is that the normal death rate of people over 80 is about 6% (higher than the virus death rate) so you really don't know how many of these people would have died from typical elderly causes.
This post was edited on 3/28/20 at 2:25 pm
Posted on 3/28/20 at 2:38 pm to BeefDawg
quote:
You conveniently dismissed and sidestepped the fact that there is a difference in posture between the two sides, which matters. Like, that's THE main and most relevant point of this particular side-topic.
The party with the president is always the side that’s going to be attacked more often. Look back 5 years and you’ll see exact same thing. It sucks being told you’re the worst, a deplorable, etc., and that’s what a lot of the left is doing to the right. I think it’s one of the many reasons why the right does get so defensive. But you’re acting like it’s all defense, and not a lashing out in response, which is ridiculous.
Posted on 3/28/20 at 3:01 pm to Dawgsontop34
quote:More sidestepping.
The party with the president is always the side that’s going to be attacked more often. Look back 5 years and you’ll see exact same thing. It sucks being told you’re the worst, a deplorable, etc., and that’s what a lot of the left is doing to the right. I think it’s one of the many reasons why the right does get so defensive. But you’re acting like it’s all defense, and not a lashing out in response, which is ridiculous.
This is 2020, and the topic is the Corona Panic, and you said both side were essentially acting the same in the partisanship.
Now you're bringing up Obama, as if that applies to your statement when it doesn't.
And, acting like the attacks from the Right on Obama were even 1/1,000,000th that of the attacks on Trump is outright laughable dishonesty, and there's no fricking way you said that with a straight face and good conscience.
Do I need to pull up the Harvard study again of over 93% reporting on Trump being negative?
Just admit it, it's no where close to the same or even remotely relative.
The Right has been in PERMANENT defense mode since day 1, on a level 10000000000000000x worse than the Left EVER had to do with Obama.
The bullshite Trump and the Right have had to go through to fight against exaggerated, baseless, and or outright fabricated and false accusations is in it's own stratosphere of category.
And to even try to act like it's been relative to Obama, or dismiss it and try to call the partisanship similar at all, just proves you're intellectually dishonest and part of the problem.
Posted on 3/28/20 at 3:26 pm to BeefDawg
quote:
You're missing the point.
When they can eventually add in that tens of millions of people have had this virus already and didn't die, it makes your "death rate" plummet.
People testing positive does not equal the number of people who've actually had this thing.
Actually, you missed the point. The death rate wasn't relevant to his point. His point was the number of deaths, independent of total cases, is increasing by 13% to 14% per day. And that the rate has stabilized over the last week. At that rate the number of deaths per day doubles every 10 days. There were over 3200 on the 27th. In 10 days that will be over 6500, per day. In another days that would be 13K per day. Assuming that 13-14% stays constant. That's scary growth from a death per day standpoint.
This post was edited on 3/28/20 at 3:30 pm
Posted on 3/28/20 at 4:01 pm to MacDawg
quote:What numbers are those?
Actually, you missed the point. The death rate wasn't relevant to his point. His point was the number of deaths, independent of total cases, is increasing by 13% to 14% per day. And that the rate has stabilized over the last week. At that rate the number of deaths per day doubles every 10 days. There were over 3200 on the 27th. In 10 days that will be over 6500, per day. In another days that would be 13K per day. Assuming that 13-14% stays constant. That's scary growth from a death per day standpoint.
Because as of this moment, we're around 110,000 cases confirmed in US with about 1,670 total deaths.
Worldwide its around 600,000 confirmed cases with around 27,000 deaths.
If you're suggesting 3,200 died in the US just yesterday, you're full of shite and making stuff up.
If you're saying 3,200 people worldwide died yesterday, then WTF does that have to do with the US? It's no where close to that here. Why are you trying to skew our numbers?
This post was edited on 3/28/20 at 4:09 pm
Posted on 3/28/20 at 5:51 pm to BeefDawg
I'm not skewing shite. You replied to a post by Peter Buck with comments that had Nothing to do with his post. I just pointed that out. I have no stake in the numbers. Take that up with Peter Buck. But if you are going to reply to his post, at least have your points be relevant to his points.
Posted on 3/28/20 at 6:24 pm to BeefDawg
quote:
Now you're bringing up Obama, as if that applies to your statement when it doesn't.
Your first post in this thread brought up Obama...
And the reason it feels that they weren’t nearly as big is because there are far more people on the left in the media than the right. I’m not denying that by any means, and it absolutely skews things. Pelosi tried to sneak a bazillion things into the Coronavirus deal and that was hardly mentioned by a lot of the media because of the way so many of them slant left.
I was probably wrong in saying it was equally offensive on both sides. But I do believe both sides are equal in their partisan nature, doing everything they can to make sure they get re-elected instead of actually focusing on the things we need to do. The right is focused on the market, so they lessen the threat of the Coronavirus. The left wants Trump out, so they play the worst case scenario card.
It’s incredibly dangerous and not fair to the American people that they act like this.
I apologize if it seems like I’m coming off as overly hostile towards you. But I think you’d probably even be willing to admit you have some bias as far as the way the right handles things.
This post was edited on 3/28/20 at 6:31 pm
Posted on 3/28/20 at 6:43 pm to Dawgsontop34
quote:
But I do believe both sides are equal in their partisan nature,
Not really trying to prolong a disagreement but objectively I don't see this as the case. Here's why:
1. Democrats and their compliant news media were lock-step in support of Obama all the way throughout his administration.
2. Meanwhile there has been and continues to be plenty of criticism of Trump within the Republican Party (ex. Never Trumpers) and of course ongoing vehemence from Democrats with the news media chiming in. McCain not voting to repeal Obamacare is a prime example. Republican appointee, Chief Justice Roberts, not ruling against Obamacare is another case and Romney recently voting in favor of impeachment of Trump is yet another instance. George W. Bush got a ton of criticism from his on party. Really the list goes on and on non-partisan action by Republicans compared to Democrats who are completely partisan on every issue.
This post was edited on 3/28/20 at 6:46 pm
Posted on 3/28/20 at 6:46 pm to GurleyGirl
quote:
Meanwhile there has been and continues to be plenty of criticism of Trump within the Republican Party and of course ongoing vehemence from Democrats with the news media chiming in. McCain not voting to repeal Obamacare is a prime example. Republican appointee, Chief Justice Roberts, not ruling against Obamacare is another case and Romney recently voting in favor of impeachment of Trump is yet another instance. George W. Bush got a ton of criticism from his on party.
The big difference is now, if you speak out against Trump, he’ll slam you and you basically have no chance at winning re-election anywhere. There is equal division in the democrats between the far lefties (AOC, Omar, Sanders, Tlaib, etc.) and the more conservative left. But what’s worse and keeps hurting the Dems is they’re going further and further left, and the middle ground is isolated.
This post was edited on 3/28/20 at 6:47 pm
Posted on 3/28/20 at 6:48 pm to Dawgsontop34
quote:
There is equal division in the democrats between the far lefties (AOC, Omar, Sanders, Tlaib, etc.)
Yea, but that's normal primary politics. Once the Democrats select a candidate and especially if that candidate is elected, there is zero criticism of "their" President by their party members.
Posted on 3/28/20 at 9:20 pm to BeefDawg
quote:
You're missing the point.
When they can eventually add in that tens of millions of people have had this virus already and didn't die, it makes your "death rate" plummet.
People testing positive does not equal the number of people who've actually had this thing.
How you don't get that is making you look like you're pushing an agenda.
There is no agenda... there clearly will be a lot more deaths with this than H1N1. This things is gonna kill a lot more people. There is no blame or fault or partisan thing involved. Just do the math....
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