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re: OT: Corona Panic 2020
Posted on 3/18/20 at 12:21 pm to meansonny
Posted on 3/18/20 at 12:21 pm to meansonny
quote:
What specifically does that tell you about the usefulness of mortality rates?
It tells me that they are worthless. The more you test, the more the result changes. It tells you that the media focuses on numbers that are pointless and not sound for decision making.
They tested and treated much earlier and much more effectively than the US is capable of. What other than wishful thinking makes people think we'll be lower than .6?
I'm not saying I know it won't be lower, but who in their right mind looks at the information and thinks there's nothing to worry about? Don't panic like a moron and buy Charmin like it's Microsoft stock in 1987, but let's be rational.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 1:05 pm to chillmonster
Interesting article from someone that might know what they are talking about....
LINK
Does this guy count as credible?
John P.A. Ioannidis - professor of medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics at Stanford University and co-director of Stanford’s Meta-Research Innovation Center
Well, 58M people already die every year....wonder what the +/- would be
LINK
Does this guy count as credible?
John P.A. Ioannidis - professor of medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics at Stanford University and co-director of Stanford’s Meta-Research Innovation Center
quote:
In the most pessimistic scenario, which I do not espouse, if the new coronavirus infects 60% of the global population and 1% of the infected people die, that will translate into more than 40 million deaths globally, matching the 1918 influenza pandemic.
Well, 58M people already die every year....wonder what the +/- would be
This post was edited on 3/18/20 at 1:29 pm
Posted on 3/18/20 at 1:12 pm to chillmonster
SK also has a different demo that's getting infected
I think we'll be a tad higher than SK but not by much.
Why aren't we dropping like flies and similar to Italy?
We had the 1st confirmed case before they did and Italy has 25X more deaths with 1/5 of the population.
Shouldn't Seattle hospitals be "overwhelmed" by now? Heck,they're 15 mins away from Kirkland (ground zero) and we're 2 months into this thing.
quote:
contrast, the outbreak in South Korea has occurred among much younger people. There, only 20% of cases have been diagnosed in those 60 years old and up. The largest affected group is those in their 20s, who account for almost 30% of all cases.
Then there is gender. The gender split in COVID-19 cases worldwide is about 50-50, but there are gender differences in survival. According to data from the original outbreak in China, the overall death rate is 4.7% in men versus 2.8% in women -- a whopping difference. Which is good news for South
I think we'll be a tad higher than SK but not by much.
Why aren't we dropping like flies and similar to Italy?
We had the 1st confirmed case before they did and Italy has 25X more deaths with 1/5 of the population.
Shouldn't Seattle hospitals be "overwhelmed" by now? Heck,they're 15 mins away from Kirkland (ground zero) and we're 2 months into this thing.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 1:29 pm to IT_Dawg
I think the writer is credible. We are in dire need of mass testing in order to make informed societal choices. Our government should start employing the WHO covid-19 test along with tests from independent labs.
Lies about test availability don't seem to work.
Lies about test availability don't seem to work.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 1:36 pm to RD Dawg
quote:
Why aren't we dropping like flies and similar to Italy?
We had the 1st confirmed case before they did and Italy has 25X more deaths with 1/5 of the population
They have a much larger population density. Also, with that closeness, and open borders, it adds up quickly...especially for a country with 23% population over 65 and a high smoking population. Also, their sanitation is a fraction of ours here.
But honestly, we don’t have the right amount or accurate data to answer these questions yet
This post was edited on 3/18/20 at 1:38 pm
Posted on 3/18/20 at 1:39 pm to Whiznot
quote:
Lies about test availability don't seem to work.
What lies?
Posted on 3/18/20 at 1:49 pm to IT_Dawg
quote:
They have a much larger population density
Sure but we have a huge population ctr 15 mins away from
a huge cluster of cases resulting in 20+ deaths.
You'd think at least Seattle would have some serious issues by now but it's not the case and won't be.
I've heard the Italy comparison
MULTIPLE times and it's just not valid.
Sure,we're gonna have a big jump in cases once testing gets ramped up but death rates and hospalization rates are the 2 biggest stats to be concerned about and the numbers just aren't showing...this is after 2 months and we probably had week start with our 1st infection.
This post was edited on 3/18/20 at 1:52 pm
Posted on 3/18/20 at 2:15 pm to RD Dawg
quote:
You'd think at least Seattle would have some serious issues by now but it's not the case and won't be
Seattle proper has a population of about 700,000....Rome has a population of almost 3M and the demographics of Rome are much higher in age and smokers. Not to mention the size of Rome is smaller
Once again, not a whole lot of data yet, but enough to understand some of the early statistics
This post was edited on 3/18/20 at 2:16 pm
Posted on 3/18/20 at 2:34 pm to Whiznot
State reporting 2 of the death cases are COVID related, being statewide death toll to 3 out of 205 confirmed cases
This post was edited on 3/18/20 at 2:35 pm
Posted on 3/18/20 at 2:41 pm to IT_Dawg
This shite is starting to weigh on me. With work stress, financial stress pre this shite, now my retirement is disappearing and on top of that there's this shite. And now I'm getting cabin fever working from home with the wife and kid all home as well, with this shitty weather. Where's the fn sun?. F all this shite. That's it. End of rant.
This post was edited on 3/18/20 at 2:44 pm
Posted on 3/18/20 at 2:58 pm to MacDawg
quote:
now my retirement is disappearing and on top of that there's this shite
Isn't it fun how you can do all the right things and still get bent over?
Posted on 3/18/20 at 3:08 pm to MacDawg
More bad news from Albany's Phoebe Putney hospital
Covid-19 patients are dying here in Albany. Albany seems to be a bad hot spot. I'm proud of the local hospital. They have been aggressively obtaining test from private labs.
Covid-19 patients are dying here in Albany. Albany seems to be a bad hot spot. I'm proud of the local hospital. They have been aggressively obtaining test from private labs.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 3:48 pm to IT_Dawg
quote:
Seattle proper has a population of about 700,000
C'mon,it close to 4 million with metro.
Point being,ground zero was next to a huge
population ctr.
quote:
Rome has a population of almost 3M and the demographics of Rome are much higher in age and smokers. Not to mention the size of Rome is smaller
Rome? The epicenter is the Lombard region and Milan in northern Italy but still a high population density
The Italy epicenter was in the Lombard region where 50,000 Chinese immigrant garment workers lived and worked.
So another factor in the outbreak in Italy
quote:
whole lot of data yet, but enough to understand some of the early statistics
I think we have enough to compare specific
regions of each country with higher population ctrs.I ran all the prorated stats on a earlier post.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 3:58 pm to FinleyStreet
quote:
now my retirement is disappearing and on top of that there's this shite
Isn't it fun how you can do all the right things and still get bent over?
It'll come back. Always does. Unless there are some structural changes to the market (eliminating buybacks, etc) it'll be back soon enough after the coming recession.
Everyone knows smart money invests long term.
This post was edited on 3/18/20 at 3:59 pm
Posted on 3/18/20 at 4:14 pm to chillmonster
If all the people who appear to have gotten Ill from the UGA dudes funeral in Albany doesn’t disturb one, then nothing will.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 4:21 pm to RD Dawg
quote:
I think we have enough to compare specific
regions of each country with higher population ctrs.I ran all the prorated stats on a earlier post.
How did that compare to the Diamond Princess? How did that compare to Georgia? How did that compare to WV, NY, Idaho? Why are they all different? What is the population makeup that correlates to highest deaths, infections? What % traveled during those times and how frequently were travelers in those airports coming from higher infected areas....blah blah blah. WE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH DATA YET. Plain and simple. shite is exactly like a hurricane 15 days out with 500 models all predicting different intensities and paths.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 4:29 pm to IT_Dawg
Yesterday the hospital in Albany received 14 test results--13 were positive. Below is a snapshot of were my community stands.
-- Total Positive Results – 23
-- Total Positive Patients in Phoebe Putney Memorial Hospital – 8
-- Total Positive Patients at Home – 13
-- Total Deaths – 2
-- Total Inpatients Awaiting Test Results at Phoebe Putney Memorial Hospital – 69
-- Total Inpatients Awaiting Test Results at Phoebe Sumter Medical Center – 5
-- Total Inpatients Awaiting Test Results at Phoebe Worth Medical Center – 1
-- Total Patients Awaiting Test Results at Home – 330-plus
-- Total Positive Results – 23
-- Total Positive Patients in Phoebe Putney Memorial Hospital – 8
-- Total Positive Patients at Home – 13
-- Total Deaths – 2
-- Total Inpatients Awaiting Test Results at Phoebe Putney Memorial Hospital – 69
-- Total Inpatients Awaiting Test Results at Phoebe Sumter Medical Center – 5
-- Total Inpatients Awaiting Test Results at Phoebe Worth Medical Center – 1
-- Total Patients Awaiting Test Results at Home – 330-plus
Posted on 3/18/20 at 4:48 pm to Whiznot
quote:
Below is a snapshot of were my community stands.
quote:
Total Positive Results – 23
And? Are you expecting 10% of people to die? What were the ages, medical history, travel tendencies, etc etc to those that are positive? How does that compare to the rest of the county? How does that compare to the rest of GA? the US? the World? the regions in other countries similar?
How is that small time county handling cases of hospital vs home? how does that compare to similar regions in the world? How many doctors are trained to diagnose and treat any type of flu? How about nurses?
Again, WTF is your point with all this? There is not enough data to do anything with. You scared, stay inside for the next 12 months. Enjoy life in captivity and a broken arse economy on the other side. Meanwhile, I am going to continue to live my life any way that I can, as I am not concerned. I live by the model I just linked, who gives a shite if 60% of people get it with a .05-1% death rate. That would be less people than die in any given year.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 4:59 pm to IT_Dawg
Dude,you need to take a chill pill.
I was just comparing 2 areas near 2 population centers and similar timelines.
THATS IT.
I can promise you nobody has gone through more comparative data in this discussion than I have. I've looked at the final numbers,rates and the dates of the Diamond
Princess.Ive gone through the history and looked at the data of Influenza deaths in Italy over a 4 year period.Ive looked at the H1N1 numbers sideways.Ive posted real numbers and estimated numbers of infections,deaths and rates of hospitalization
(HUGE varience in cases BTW)I've also looked at the
SK data and their reasons for apparent success. I blew up the false narrative about Trump cutting the global pandemic/CDC budget
Be my guest and go over my posts.Nobody has come up with more exact numbers and current data.
I said there was ENOUGH data to make the comparison.I never said it was complete.
Hell,we dont even have complete data on the Spanish from 100 years ago.
BTW,why did you bring up Rome in regards to the outbreak in Italy?It was and is far away from the epicenter of the Italian breakout.
Have no idea why you're so angry but I hope you refill your meds or get out and enjoy some fresh air today.It'll help ya out.
I was just comparing 2 areas near 2 population centers and similar timelines.
THATS IT.
I can promise you nobody has gone through more comparative data in this discussion than I have. I've looked at the final numbers,rates and the dates of the Diamond
Princess.Ive gone through the history and looked at the data of Influenza deaths in Italy over a 4 year period.Ive looked at the H1N1 numbers sideways.Ive posted real numbers and estimated numbers of infections,deaths and rates of hospitalization
(HUGE varience in cases BTW)I've also looked at the
SK data and their reasons for apparent success. I blew up the false narrative about Trump cutting the global pandemic/CDC budget
Be my guest and go over my posts.Nobody has come up with more exact numbers and current data.
I said there was ENOUGH data to make the comparison.I never said it was complete.
Hell,we dont even have complete data on the Spanish from 100 years ago.
BTW,why did you bring up Rome in regards to the outbreak in Italy?It was and is far away from the epicenter of the Italian breakout.
Have no idea why you're so angry but I hope you refill your meds or get out and enjoy some fresh air today.It'll help ya out.
This post was edited on 3/19/20 at 11:54 am
Posted on 3/18/20 at 5:18 pm to IT_Dawg
quote:
What lies?
Anyone can get a test.
We have a million tests by the end of the week.
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