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re: OT: Corona Panic 2020
Posted on 3/16/20 at 2:04 pm to Whiznot
Posted on 3/16/20 at 2:04 pm to Whiznot
quote:
Over a 1% death rate this early in the crisis isn't encouraging. If hospitals are overwhelmed the mortality rate will be much higher.
You are comparing the population of a cruise to the general US population in terms if projected outcomes? You got a link that shows the cruise ship has the same percentage of old people as America?
That's like looking at a retirement home in Washington and screaming panic about the rest of the country... because it is still early for those retirement home residents.
1
Posted on 3/16/20 at 4:27 pm to meansonny
Curious to see how this stacks up against the 80,000 that died from the seasonal flu in 2017-2018 and the over 12,000 that died from the swine flu pandemic of 2009.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 4:29 pm to FlexDawg
quote:
Curious to see how this stacks up against the 80,000 that died from the seasonal flu in 2017-2018 and the over 12,000 that died from the swine flu pandemic of 2009.
Take a moment to think about where you made a mistake.
I'll give you a hint. What's the survival rate?
ETA:
And even with the flawed numbers, the swine flu death rate was about .01%.
This post was edited on 3/16/20 at 4:41 pm
Posted on 3/16/20 at 4:40 pm to chillmonster
quote:
Take a moment to think about where you made a mistake.
I'll give you a hint. What's the survival rate?
You don’t know either. This could get to seasonal flu levels if everyone is tested or it could drop to H1N1 levels, we don’t know yet. That is a ridiculous argument right now. We also need to understand how many of these elderly with underlying conditions were going to pass away anyway??? Just saying, we are now 4 months into this thing for China and more people in the US died from H1N1 in a year, than have died in 4 months
Also, that chart doesn’t talk about %’s either. It just shows big scary red bubbles everywhere with no relation to anything
This post was edited on 3/16/20 at 4:42 pm
Posted on 3/16/20 at 4:41 pm to chillmonster
You obviously didn’t see that 1.7% I put below the map.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 4:47 pm to chillmonster
quote:
Take a moment to think about where you made a mistake. I'll give you a hint. What's the survival rate? ETA: And even with the flawed numbers, the swine flu death rate was about .01%.
So this is what you’re worried about?
Who knows what the final death toll will be. My main point is that there was no panic comparable to this at ANY point beginning, middle, or end of the final death toll numbers of swine flu or the 2017-2018 seasonal flu. Only 72 people are dead in the US and everyone is freaking out. Why did the 12,000 or 80,000 dying not make you panic? Because of the media. People are so fricking gullible.
This post was edited on 3/16/20 at 4:49 pm
Posted on 3/16/20 at 4:48 pm to IT_Dawg
quote:
You don’t know either.
Exactly. Let's all relax from premature proclamations based on faulty data or bullshite advice. Wide spread head-in-the-sand-ism from people similar to many on this board is the main reason we're scrambling to catch up right now.
All available data suggests a death rate about at least 10x (likely more) as deadly as the normal flu. Since we can't take action based on exact information we should all continue to take precautions.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 4:52 pm to chillmonster
quote:
All available data suggests a death rate about at least 10x (likely more) as deadly as the normal flu. Since we can't take action based on exact information we should all continue to take precautions.
No it’s likely less. As more people become infected the more the fatality rate has dropped. Again ask yourself why no one was panicking when 80k died from the flu and when 12k died from swine flu. If coronavirus ends up having a higher fatality rate then so be it. But there’s still 72 people currently dead compared to 10s of thousands that no one even blinked an eye at.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 5:03 pm to chillmonster
quote:
Exactly. Let's all relax from premature proclamations based on faulty data or bullshite advice
Agree about "proclamations" and we should also through in the most important and most dangerous,which is "speculation"
Nobody wants to get any faulty data but accurate historical data and current data is really the only place where you can draw some conclusions.Even with some current data being obviously incomplete.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 5:11 pm to Barstools
quote:
You're not very smart.
And...there's the classic response.
Should I be surprised? This is, after all, a college football forum in the deep south...
Actually I'm pleasantly surprised that I wasn't accused of being a libtard.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 5:17 pm to FlexDawg
quote:
No it’s likely less.
The data suggests it's likely more.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 5:23 pm to chillmonster
quote:
The data suggests it's likely more.
Screw what the data suggests.
I really want to know what you suggest.
8/1/20
What do you see the US infected and US death total attributed to Covid19?
Posted on 3/16/20 at 5:39 pm to chillmonster
quote:
Exactly. Let's all relax from premature proclamations based on faulty data or bullshite advice
but you say....
quote:
Wide spread head-in-the-sand-ism from people similar to many on this board is the main reason we're scrambling to catch up right now.
then again....
quote:
All available data suggests a death rate about at least 10x (likely more) as deadly as the normal flu
then go on....
quote:
Since we can't take action based on exact information we should all continue to take precautions
So basically, we don't have proper data, but everyone not flipping the frick out is wrong...based on not having the proper data. Then, you are concerned about the "data" suggesting a 10x rate from the seasonal flu, yet SARS had a 170x death rate of the flu, but we didn't flip out then.
Look, viruses will always morph and present new types, as it's the nature of a virus. Our healthcare system and hygiene are still massively improving year over year.
I asked it early, please tell me where the economic and lifestyle impact is worth a virus comparable to killing off a slightly larger % of people that will be dying soon makes sense? When should we shut all shite down like we are now for 179,000 ppl WORLDWIDE being infected....More people than that die every day from more than that. What happens in 2 months after shutting down everything, when 1 person still has it??? Do we do this again? You think 100% home quarantine for everyone will make it so no one has it? 1 person in the US started it here, just like EVERY virus. If 1 person still has it after all this "social distancing," won't we go through it again???
No, this is a respiratory virus like many before and will fade. The sacrifice to our freedoms and control to government is not good.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 5:49 pm to meansonny
quote:
Screw what the data suggests.
I really want to know what you suggest.
If you're looking for TRant instead of what epidemiologists predict what's going to happen you're misguided.
. . . to say it gently.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 5:55 pm to chillmonster
quote:
you're looking for TRant instead of what epidemiologists predict what's going to happen you're misguided.
. . . to say it gently.
That's funny. Earlier, it looked like you had an opinion. And a spine.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 5:56 pm to IT_Dawg
Posted on 3/16/20 at 5:57 pm to chillmonster
quote:
If you're looking for TRant instead of what epidemiologists predict what's going to happen you're misguided.
If you don’t think epidemiologists aren’t getting their jollies off from all this publicity and the fact they have control over the population, you are misguided. They get paid shite and love this attention and control, just like politicians and journalists.
Same when the “global scientists” said the O-zone” was going away in the late 80’s. Same with anyone else. They want to be the first to yap anything out there and get credit or fame, even if it’s baseless and bullshite. They can always say, “well, the overreacting corrected it,” or “some other outlier played a part and wasn’t our fault,” but we will still be vigilant moving forward
Posted on 3/16/20 at 6:00 pm to IT_Dawg
quote:
So basically, we don't have proper data, but everyone not flipping the frick out is wrong...based on not having the proper data. Then, you are concerned about the "data" suggesting a 10x rate from the seasonal flu, yet SARS had a 170x death rate of the flu, but we didn't flip out then.
Look, viruses will always morph and present new types, as it's the nature of a virus. Our healthcare system and hygiene are still massively improving year over year.
I asked it early, please tell me where the economic and lifestyle impact is worth a virus comparable to killing off a slightly larger % of people that will be dying soon makes sense? When should we shut all shite down like we are now for 179,000 ppl WORLDWIDE being infected....More people than that die every day from more than that. What happens in 2 months after shutting down everything, when 1 person still has it??? Do we do this again? You think 100% home quarantine for everyone will make it so no one has it? 1 person in the US started it here, just like EVERY virus. If 1 person still has it after all this "social distancing," won't we go through it again???
No, this is a respiratory virus like many before and will fade. The sacrifice to our freedoms and control to government is not good.
You just did a lot of work there to say absolutely nothing.
My point was simple: we don't have final numbers, but the data suggests precautions are necessary (and recommended precautions have been announced). Let's be prudent to take those precautions.
Not for nothing: I've read a lot from you on this subject over the past couple of weeks. At least you're consistent with putting in a lot of effort into adding absolutely nothing of value - nothing at all. Spare yourself the carpal tunnel; nobody cares what you think.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 6:02 pm to IT_Dawg
quote:
you don’t think epidemiologists aren’t getting their jollies off from all this publicity and the fact they have control over the population, you are misguided.
I find it ironic that I havent found predictions for the US. No hard projections on active infections and covid deaths in the US.
Only guesses with mortality rates. Guesses with infectious rates.
My guess is that none of the epidemiologists want to look like assholes with real predictions (it isnt like we dont know the US population).
This 1 strand won't be worse than an average flu season. Maybe it isnt fair to compare 1 strand of a virus to all of the flu viruses. It is like comparing Bubba Watson versus the field.
Ironically, this will probably be the healthiest flu season in decades.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 6:11 pm to meansonny
The transmission rate varies dependent on human behavior. The fatality rate is variable based on the availability of medical treatment.
There is a range to both rates. How the crisis is managed will determine the outcome.
There is a range to both rates. How the crisis is managed will determine the outcome.
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